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Climate Change is an Existential Threat to Humanity by International Court of Justice, agencies 23 July 2025 The International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague, Netherlands, issued its advisory opinion on the obligations of States in respect of climate change, read out by the President of the Court, Judge Iwasawa Yuji, on Wednesday. The UN’s principal judicial body ruled that States have an obligation to protect the environment from greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and act with due diligence and cooperation to fulfill this obligation. This includes the obligation under the Paris Agreement on climate change to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The Court further ruled that if States breach these obligations, they incur legal responsibility and may be required to cease the wrongful conduct, offer guarantees of non-repetition and make full reparation depending on the circumstances. UN Secretary-General António Guterres welcomed the historic decision. "This is a victory for our planet, for climate justice and for the power of young people to make a difference," he said. “The world must respond.” The case was “unlike any that have previously come before the court,” President of the International Court of Justice Judge Yuji Iwasawa said while reading the court’s unanimous advisory opinion outlining the legal obligations of United Nations member states with regard to climate change. This case was not simply a “legal problem” but “concerned an existential problem of planetary proportions that imperils all forms of life and the very health of our planet,” Iwasawa said. “A complete solution to this daunting and self-inflicted problem requires the contribution of all fields of human knowledge, whether law, science, economics or any other; above all, a lasting and satisfactory solution requires human will and wisdom at the individual social and political levels to change our habits and current way of life to secure a future for ourselves and those who are yet to come”. "Failure of a state to take appropriate action to protect the climate system … may constitute an internationally wrongful act," court president Yuji Iwasawa said. "The legal consequences resulting from the commission of an internationally wrongful act may include … full reparations to injured states in the form of restitution, compensation and satisfaction." The court added that a "sufficient direct and certain causal nexus" had to be shown "between the wrongful act and the injury". The Court used Member States’ commitments to both environmental and human rights treaties to justify this decision. UN Member States are parties to a variety of environmental treaties, including ozone layer treaties, the Biodiversity Convention, the Kyoto Protocol, the Paris Agreement and many more, which oblige them to protect the environment for people worldwide and for future generations. The right to “a clean, healthy and sustainable environment is a precondition for the enjoyment of many human rights,” since Member States are parties to numerous human rights treaties, including the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, they are required to guarantee the enjoyment of such rights by addressing climate change. In September 2021, the Pacific Island State of Vanuatu announced that it would seek an advisory opinion from the Court on climate change. This initiative was inspired by the youth group Pacific Island Students Fighting Climate Change, which underscored the need to act to address climate change, particularly in small island States. After the country gaind the support of other UN Member States, the UN General Assembly, on 29 March 2023, adopted a resolution requesting an advisory opinion from the ICJ on two questions: (1) What are the obligations of States under international law to ensure the protection of the environment? and (2) What are the legal consequences for States under these obligations when they cause harm to the environment? The ICJ ruling was welcomed by Ralph Regenvanu, Minister of Climate Change Adaptation, Meteorology & Geo-Hazards, Energy, Environment and Disaster Management for the Republic of Vanuatu. “Today’s ruling is a landmark opinion that confirms what we, vulnerable nations have been saying, and we’ve known for so long, that states do have legal obligations to act on climate change, and these obligations are guaranteed by international law. They’re guaranteed by human rights law, and they’re grounded in the duty to protect our environment, which we heard the court referred to so much,” Regenvanu said. Mr Regenvanu hailed the court's decision as a "landmark milestone". "It's a very important course correction in this critically important time," he said. "Even as fossil fuel expansion continues under the US's influence, along with the loss of climate finance and technology transfer, and the lack of climate ambition following the US's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, major polluters, past and present, cannot continue to act with impunity and treat developing countries as sacrifice zones to further feed corporate greed." Margaretha Wewerinke-Singh, legal counsel for Vanuatu’s ICJ case, said the opinion meant that the “era where fossil fuel producers can freely produce and can argue that their climate policies are a matter of discretion—they’re free to decide on the climate policies—that era is over. We have entered an era of accountability, in which states can be held to account for their current emissions if they’re excessive but also for what they have failed to do in the past.” Vishal Prasad, the director of Pacific Islands Students Fighting Climate Change and one of the students who initiated the case, said the advisory opinion would play a major role in holding polluters accountable. "The ICJ's decision brings us closer to a world where governments can no longer turn a blind eye to their legal responsibilities," he said. "It affirms a simple truth of climate justice: those who did the least to fuel this crisis deserve protection, reparations, and a future." ICJ president Yuji Iwasawa said the climate "must be protected for present and future generations" and the adverse effect of a warming planet "may significantly impair the enjoyment of certain human rights, including the right to life". The detailed ICJ advisory opinion dealt with obligations of states under various climate conventions and treaties and humanitarian law. The court concluded that in terms of the climate agreements, state parties: To the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change have an obligation to adopt measures with a view to contributing to the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to climate change. Have additional obligations to take the lead in combating climate change by limiting their greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing their greenhouse gas sinks and reservoirs. To the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, have a duty to cooperate with each other in order to achieve the underlying objective of the convention. To the Kyoto Protocol must comply with applicable provisions of the protocol. To the Paris Agreement have an obligation to act with due diligence in taking measures in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities capable of making an adequate contribution to achieving the temperature goal set out in the agreement. To the Paris Agreement have an obligation to prepare, communicate and maintain successive and progressive, nationally determined contributions, which, when taken together, are capable of achieving the temperature goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. State parties to the Paris agreement have an obligation to pursue measures which are capable of achieving the objectives set out in their successive nationally determined contributions. State parties to the Paris agreement have obligations of adaptation and cooperation, including through technology and financial transfers, which must be performed in good faith. In addition, the court was of the opinion that customary international law sets forth obligations for states to ensure the protection of the climate system and other parts of the environment from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. These obligations include the following: States have a duty to prevent significant harm to the environment by acting with due diligence and to use all means at their disposal to prevent activities carried out within their jurisdiction or control from causing significant harm to the climate system and other parts of the environment in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. States have a duty to cooperate with each other in good faith to prevent significant harm to the climate system and other parts of the environment, which requires sustained and continuous forms of cooperation by states when taking measures to prevent such harm. State parties to the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the ozone layer and to the protocol and to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete ozone layer and its Kigali amendment, the Convention on Biological Diversity, and the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification in those countries experiencing serious drought and/or desertification, particularly in Africa, have obligations under these treaties to ensure the protection of the climate system and other parts of the environment from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. State parties to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea have an obligation to adopt measures to protect and preserve the marine environment, including from the adverse effects of climate change, and to cooperate in good faith. However, the court did not end there; it was of the opinion that states have obligations under international human rights law and are required to take “measures to protect the climate system and other parts of the environment.” The court said a clean, healthy and sustainable environment was a precondition for exercising many human rights, such as the right to life, the right to health, the right to an adequate standard of living, including access to water, food and housing. * ICJ Summary: Obligation of States in respect of climate change (7pp): http://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/187/187-20250723-pre-01-00-en.pdf * ICJ complete advisory: Obligation of States in respect of climate change (140pp): http://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/187/187-20250723-adv-01-00-en.pdf http://news.un.org/en/story/2025/07/1165475 http://webtv.un.org/en/asset/k1t/k1tey5ro2w http://www.icj-cij.org/case/187/press-releases http://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2025/07/turk-hails-landmark-icj-ruling-affirming-states-human-rights-obligations http://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/news/institute-responds-to-international-court-of-justice-advisory-opinion/ http://www.ciel.org/news/icj-climate-opinion-ends-fossil-fuel-impunity/ http://wwf.panda.org/wwf_news/press_releases/?14459466/ICJ-advisory-opinion-climate-change http://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2025/07/global-international-court-of-justices-landmark-opinion-bolsters-fight-for-climate-justice-and-accountability/ http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jul/23/healthy-environment-is-a-human-right-top-un-court-rules http://www.dw.com/en/worlds-top-court-says-healthy-environment-is-a-human-right/a-73373617 http://www.ipsnews.net/2025/07/climate-change-existential-threat-to-humanity-says-icj/ http://earth.org/landmark-moment-for-climate-justice-reactions-pour-in-after-icj-delivers-historic-opinion-on-states-climate-change-obligations/ http://www.ciel.org/project-update/advancing-climate-justice-at-the-icj/ http://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/news/luciano-lliuya-v-rwe-a-major-step-forward-for-climate-justice/ http://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2025/06/de-fossilising-economies-key-course-correction-climate-change-and-human http://documents.un.org/doc/undoc/gen/g25/070/22/pdf/g2507022.pdf http://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2025/07/un-experts-hail-landmark-inter-american-court-opinion-states-extensive http://blogs.law.columbia.edu/climatechange/2025/07/15/the-right-to-a-healthy-environment-as-a-catalyst-for-urgent-and-ambitious-climate-action-at-the-iacthr/ http://climate.law.columbia.edu/ http://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/pace-of-warming-has-doubled-since-1980s http://www.savethechildren.net/news/climate-change-icj-ruling-landmark-win-children http://www.rightsoffuturegenerations.org/the-principles http://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/documents/hrbodies/hrcouncil/sessions-regular/session57/advance-versions/A-HRC-57-30-AEV.pdf http://www.ohchr.org/en/documents/general-comments-and-recommendations/crccgc26-general-comment-no-26-2023-childrens-rights Visit the related web page |
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Global Drought Hotspots Report Catalogs Severe Suffering, Economic Damage by PIK, UN Convention to Combat Desertification July 2025 Global Drought Hotspots Report Catalogs Severe Suffering, Economic Damage. Fueled by climate change and relentless pressure on land and water resources, some of the most widespread and damaging drought events in recorded history have taken place since 2023, according to a UN-backed report launched today. Prepared by the U.S. National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) and the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), with support from the International Drought Resilience Alliance (IDRA), the latest report Drought Hotspots Around the World 2023-2025 provides a comprehensive account of how droughts compound poverty, hunger, energy insecurity, and ecosystem collapse. Says UNCCD Executive Secretary Ibrahim Thiaw: “Drought is a silent killer. It creeps in, drains resources, and devastates lives in slow motion. Its scars run deep.” “Drought is no longer a distant threat,” he adds. “It is here, escalating, and demands urgent global cooperation. When energy, food, and water all go at once, societies start to unravel. That’s the new normal we need to be ready for.” “This is not a dry spell,” says Dr. Mark Svoboda, report co-author and NDMC Director. "This is a slow-moving global catastrophe, the worst I've ever seen. This report underscores the need for systematic monitoring of how drought affects lives, livelihoods, and the health of the ecosystems that we all depend on." “The Mediterranean countries represent canaries in the coal mine for all modern economies,” he adds. “The struggles experienced by Spain, Morocco and Turkiye to secure water, food, and energy under persistent drought offer a preview of water futures under unchecked global warming. No country, regardless of wealth or capacity, can afford to be complacent.” A wide-ranging crisis The new report synthesizes information from hundreds of government, scientific and media sources to highlight impacts within the most acute drought hotspots in Africa (Somalia, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Botswana, Namibia), the Mediterranean (Spain, Morocco, Türkiye), Latin America (Panama, Amazon Basin), Southeast Asia, and beyond. Africa: Over 90 million people across Eastern and Southern Africa face acute hunger. Some areas have been enduring their worst ever recorded drought. Southern Africa, already drought-prone, was devastated with roughly 1/6th of the population (68 million) needing food aid in August 2024. In Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Malawi, maize and wheat crops have failed repeatedly. In Zimbabwe alone, the 2024 corn crop was down 70% year on year, and maize prices doubled while 9,000 cattle died of thirst and starvation. In Somalia, the government estimated 43,000 people died in 2022 alone due to drought-linked hunger. As of early 2025, 4.4 million people – a quarter of the population – face crisis-level food insecurity, including 784,000 expected to reach emergency levels. Zambia suffered one of the world's worst energy crises as the Zambezi River in April 2024 plummeted to 20% of its long-term average. The country’s largest hydroelectric plant, the Kariba Dam, fell to 7% generation capacity, causing blackouts of up to 21 hours per day and shuttering hospitals, bakeries, and factories. Mediterranean Spain: Water shortages hit agriculture and domestic supply. By September 2023, two years of drought and record heat caused a 50% drop in Spain’s olive crop, causing its olive oil prices to double across the country. Morocco: The sheep population was 38% smaller in 2025 relative to 2016s. Turkiye: Drought accelerated groundwater depletion, triggering sinkholes that present hazards to communities and their infrastructure while permanently reducing aquifer storage capacity. Latin America Amazon Basin: Record-low river levels in 2023 and 2024 led to mass deaths of fish and endangered dolphins, and disrupted drinking water and transport for hundreds of thousands. As deforestation and fires intensify, the Amazon risks transitioning from a carbon sink to a carbon source. Panama Canal: Water levels dropped so low that transits were slashed by over one-third, causing major global trade disruptions. Facing multi-week delays, many ships were rerouted to longer, costlier paths via the Suez Canal or South Africa’s infamous Cape of Good Hope. Among the knock-on effects, U.S. soybean exports slowed, and UK grocery stores reported shortages and rising prices of fruits and vegetables. Southeast Asia Drought disrupted production and supply chains of key crops such as rice and sugar. In 2023-2024, dry conditions in Thailand and India, for example, triggered shortages. The 2023–2024 El Nino event amplified already harsh climate change impacts, triggering dry conditions across major agricultural and ecological zones. Drought’s impacts hit hardest in climate hotspots, regions already suffering from warming trends and fragile infrastructure. “This was a perfect storm,” says report co-author Dr. Kelly Helm Smith, NDMC Assistant Director and drought impacts researcher. “El Nino added fuel to the fire of climate change, compounding the effects for many vulnerable societies and ecosystems past their limits.” Co-author Dr. Cody Knutson, who oversees NDMC drought planning research, underlined a recent OECD estimate that a drought episode today carries an economic cost at least twice as high as in 2000, with a 35% to 110% increase projected by 2035. “Ripple effects can turn regional droughts into global economic shocks,” she adds. “No country is immune when critical water-dependent systems start to collapse.” Women, children among the most affected Most vulnerable to the effects of drought: Women, children, the elderly, pastoralists, subsistence farmers, and people with chronic illness. Health risks include cholera outbreaks, acute malnutrition, dehydration, and exposure to polluted water. The report highlights in particular the disproportionate toll on women and children. In Eastern Africa, forced child marriages more than doubled. Though outlawed in Ethiopia, child marriages more than doubled in frequency in the four regions hit hardest by the drought. In Zimbabwe, entire school districts saw mass dropouts due to hunger, costs, and sanitation issues for girls. In the Amazon, the drought upended life for remote Indigenous and rural communities. In some areas, the Amazon River fell to its lowest level ever recorded, leaving residents stranded – including women giving birth – and entire towns without potable water. “The coping mechanisms we saw during this drought grew increasingly desperate,” says lead author Paula Guastello, NDMC drought impacts researcher. “Girls pulled from school and forced into marriage, hospitals going dark, and families digging holes in dry riverbeds just to find contaminated water — these are signs of severe crisis." "As droughts intensify, it is critical that we work together on a global scale to protect the most vulnerable people and ecosystems and re-evaluate whether our current water use practices are sustainable in today's changing world,” Guastello says. Deputy Executive Secretary of UNCCD Andrea Meza says: “The report shows the deep and widespread impacts of drought in an interconnected world: from its rippling effects on price of basic commodities like rice, sugar and oil from Southeast Asia and the Mediterranean; to disruptions in access to drinking water and food in the Amazon due to low river levels, to tens of millions affected by malnutrition and displacement across Africa." “The evidence is clear”, adds Meza. “We must urgently invest in sustainable land and water management, nature-based solutions, adapted crops, and integrated public policies to build our resilience to drought ---or face increasing economic shocks, instability and forced migration.. http://www.unccd.int/news-stories/press-releases/global-drought-hotspots-report-catalogs-severe-suffering-economic http://www.unccd.int/news-stories/press-releases/global-drought-hotspots-report-catalogs-severe-suffering-economic * Land degradation, drought pose severe health risks Persistent land degradation and worsening droughts pose serious health risks, including diseases like cholera and malaria, cardiovascular and respiratory conditions and mental health issues linked to resource scarcity and displacement. The report underscores how land degradation and drought exacerbate malnutrition among children, noting a clear overlap between areas with high aridity and high rates of stunting in children under five: http://www.unccd.int/resources/brief/health-impacts-land-degradation-and-drought Mar. 2025 Hunger skyrockets by nearly 80 percent in Eastern and Southern Africa over past five years amidst worsening water crisis. (Oxfam) The climate crisis has dramatically worsened water scarcity in Eastern and Southern Africa over the past few decades, leaving nearly 116 million people –or 40 percent of the population - without safe drinking water, according to a new Oxfam report. Climate change is supercharging extreme weather events like droughts, cyclones and flash floods, and has led to the disappearance of more than 90 percent of Africa's tropical glaciers and the depletion of groundwater. This has had knock-on effects on Africa’s small-scale farmers, pastoralists and fisherpersons leaving millions without basic food, drinking water or income. Oxfam’s report -Water-Driven Hunger: How the Climate Crisis Fuels Africa’s Food Emergency – published ahead of World Water Day, looked at the links between water scarcity and hunger in eight of the world’s worst water crises: Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Somalia, South Sudan, Zambia and Zimbabwe. It found that the number of people experiencing extreme hunger in those countries has surged by nearly 80 percent over the past five years – reaching over 55 million in 2024, up from nearly 31 million in 2019. That is two in every ten persons. The report warns that La Nina weather pattern, which will last through this month, will worsen floods in swaths of Southern Africa and South Sudan while causing severe drought in East Africa further threatening people’s food availability and income. Globally, flash floods have become 20 times more frequent between 2000 and 2022 and the duration of droughts has risen by 29% since 2000, impacting the most vulnerable communities. Existing poverty, deep inequality and chronic under-investment along with poor governance in water systems have compounded this climate-fuelled water crisis. African governments are currently meeting less than half the US$50 billion annual investment target required to achieve water security in Africa by 2030. Fati N’Zi-Hassane, Oxfam in Africa Director said: "The climate crisis is not a mere statistic—it has a human face. It affects real people whose livelihoods are being destroyed, while the main contributors to this crisis—big polluters and super-rich—continue to profit. Meanwhile, national governments neglect to support the very communities they should protect." The Oxfam report also found that: In the eight countries studied, 91 percent of small-scale farmers depend almost entirely on rainwater for drinking and farming. In Ethiopia, food insecurity has soared by 175 percent over the past five years, with 22 million people struggling to find their next meal. In Kenya, over 136,000 square kilometers of land have become drier between 1980 and 2020, which has decimated crops and livestock. In Somalia, one failed rainy season is pushing one million more people into crisis-level hunger, raising the total to 4.4 million—24% of the population. A farmer from Baidoa, Somalia explains: “In the past, we knew when to farm and when to harvest but that has all changed. The rains now come late or not at all. Last year, I lost all my crops and animals. I have now planted, but the rains have still not come. If this continues, I will not be able to feed my family.” Deep inequalities mean that disadvantaged people like women and girls are too often the first and most severely punished by this water crisis. In Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, women and girls walk up to 10 kilometers in search of water, facing violence and extreme exhaustion. Many women and girls in rural households spend hours each day collecting water—time that could otherwise be spent on education or income generation. “At the heart of this climate crisis lies a justice crisis. Sub-Saharan Africa receives only 3-4 percent of global climate finance, despite being heavily affected by climate change. Rich polluting nations must pay their fair share. It's not about charity, it's about justice. “African governments must also double down on their investment in water infrastructures and social protection to effectively manage natural resources, and help the most vulnerable communities cope with climatic shocks,” added N’Zi-Hassane. http://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/hunger-skyrockets-nearly-80-percent-eastern-and-southern-africa-over-past-five-years http://reliefweb.int/report/world/drought-africa-april-2025-gdo-analytical-report http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/resources/resources-details/en/c/1159591/ http://www.wfp.org/stories/hunger-crisis-threatens-west-and-central-africa-lean-season-looms Jan. 2025 Global increase in the occurrence and impact of multiyear droughts. (Science Journal) Between 1980 and 2018, the global land area affected by prolonged droughts increased by an average of around 50,000 square kilometres per year, researchers from the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL) said in a study published in the journal Science. “Multi-year droughts cause enormous economic damage, for example in agriculture and power generation,” said Dirk Karger, head of the study. This has been caused by rising temperatures linked to climate change, the researchers explained. These lead to greater fluctuations in precipitation and at the same time increase evaporation from the soil and vegetation. Over the last 30 years, Earth has experienced an uptick in both frequency and intensity of these punishing, persistent droughts that can last years to decades, the researchers report. Such lengthy precipitation deficits not only shrink the drinking water supply, but can also lead to massive crop failures, food insecurity, increased tree mortality and increased incidence of wildfire. The analysis measures the rising global toll of megadroughts from 1980 to 2018. Each year, multiyear droughts affected an additional 5 million hectares of land. Data on precipitation and evapotranspiration — the transfer of water from soil and plants to the atmosphere — allowed the researchers to identify and map megadroughts during that time period, and rank the events by severity. Nearly every continent on Earth has been subject to megadrought during this period. The worst was southwestern North America’s long-running dry period, which was particularly severe from 2008 to 2014. That drought was the region’s most extreme in 1,200 years and has helped fuel California’s recent bouts with fire, including January’s unusual wintertime wildfires in Los Angeles County. The growing severity and frequency in Earth’s megadroughts may push even the most resilient ecosystems past their limits, the researchers highlight. http://www.newscientist.com/article/2464413-severe-droughts-are-getting-bigger-hotter-drier-and-longer/ http://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ado4245 http://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/ http://watercommission.org/#report http://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2024/10/addressing-global-water-and-food-crisis-crucial-human-rights-says-special http://wmo.int/news/media-centre/wmo-report-highlights-growing-shortfalls-and-stress-global-water-resources Dec. 2024 Confronting the global crisis of land degradation A major new scientific report charts an urgent course correction for how the world grows food and uses land in order to avoid irretrievably compromising Earth’s capacity to support human and environmental well-being. Produced under the leadership of Prof. Dr. Johan Rockström at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in collaboration with the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), the report is launched as nearly 200 UNCCD member states begin their COP16 summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Land is the foundation of Earth’s stability, the report underlines. It regulates climate, preserves biodiversity, maintains freshwater systems and provides life-giving resources including food, water and raw materials. The report, Stepping back from the precipice: Transforming land management to stay within planetary boundaries, draws on roughly 350 information sources to examine land degradation and opportunities to act from a planetary boundaries perspective. Deforestation, urbanization and unsustainable farming, however, are causing global land degradation at an unprecedented scale, threatening not only different Earth system components but human survival itself. Moreover, the deterioration of forests and soils undermines Earth’s capacity to cope with the climate and biodiversity crises, which in turn accelerate land degradation in a vicious, downward cycle of impacts. “If we fail to acknowledge the pivotal role of land and take appropriate action, the consequences will ripple through every aspect of life and extend well into the future, intensifying difficulties for future generations,” said UNCCD Executive Secretary Ibrahim Thiaw. Already today, land degradation disrupts food security, drives migration, and fuels conflicts. The global area impacted by land degradation – approx. 15 million km², more than the entire continent of Antarctica or nearly the size of Russia – is expanding each year by about a million square km. Planetary boundaries The report situates both problems and potential solutions related to land use within the scientific framework of the planetary boundaries, which has rapidly gained policy relevance since its unveiling 15 years ago. The planetary boundaries define nine critical thresholds essential for maintaining Earth’s stability. How humanity uses or abuses land directly impacts seven of these, including climate change, species loss and ecosystem viability, freshwater systems, and the circulation of naturally occurring elements nitrogen and phosphorus. Change in land use is also a planetary boundary. Alarmingly, six boundaries have already been breached to date, and two more are close to their thresholds: ocean acidification and the concentration of aerosols in the atmosphere. Only stratospheric ozone – the object of a 1989 treaty to reduce ozone-depleting chemicals – is firmly within its “safe operating space”. “The aim of the planetary boundaries framework is to provide a measure for achieving human wellbeing within Earth’s ecological limits,” said Johan Rockstrom, lead author of the seminal study introducing the concept in 2009. “We stand at a precipice and must decide whether to step back and take transformative action, or continue on a path of irreversible environmental change,” he adds. The benchmark for land use, for example, is the extent of the world’s forests before significant human impact. Anything above 75% keeps us within safe bounds, but forest cover has already been reduced to only 60% of its original area, according to the most recent update of the planetary boundaries framework by Katherine Richardson and colleagues. Until recently, land ecosystems absorbed nearly one third of human-caused CO₂ pollution, even as those emissions increased by half. Over the last decade, however, deforestation and climate change have reduced by 20% the capacity of trees and soil to absorb excess CO₂. Unsustainable agricultural practices Conventional agriculture is the leading culprit of land degradation, contributing to deforestation, soil erosion and pollution. Unsustainable irrigation practices deplete freshwater resources, while excessive use of nitrogen- and phosphorus-based fertilizers destabilize ecosystems. Degraded soils lower crop yields and nutritional quality, directly impacting the livelihoods of vulnerable populations. Secondary effects include greater dependency on chemical inputs and increased land conversion for farming. The infamous Dust Bowl of the 1930s resulted from large-scale land-use changes and inadequate soil conservation. Land degradation hotspots today stem from intensive agricultural production and high irrigation demands, particularly in dry regions such as South Asia, northern China, the US High Plains, California, and the Mediterranean. Meanwhile, climate change – which has long since breached its own planetary boundary – accelerates land degradation through extreme weather events, prolonged droughts, and intensified floods. Melting mountain glaciers and altered water cycles heighten vulnerabilities, especially in arid regions. Rapid urbanization intensifies these challenges, contributing to habitat destruction, pollution, and biodiversity loss. The impacts of land degradation hit tropical and low-income countries disproportionately, both because they have less resilience and because impacts are concentrated in tropical and arid regions. Women, youth, Indigenous peoples, and local communities also bear the brunt of environmental decline. Women face increased workloads and health risks, while children suffer from malnutrition and educational setbacks. Weak governance and corruption exacerbate these challenges. Corruption fosters illegal deforestation and resource exploitation, perpetuating cycles of degradation and inequality. According to the Prindex initiative, nearly one billion people lack secure land tenure, with the highest concentration in north Africa (28%), sub-Saharan Africa (26%), as well as South and Southeast Asia. The fear of losing one’s home or land undermines efforts to promote sustainable practices. Agricultural subsidies often incentivize harmful practices, fueling overuse of water and biogeochemical imbalances. Aligning these subsidies with sustainability goals is critical for effective land management. From 2013 to 2018, more than half-a-trillion dollars were spent on such subsidies across 88 countries, a report by FAO, UNDP and UNEP found in 2021. Nearly 90% went to inefficient, unfair practices that harmed the environment, according to that report. Transformative action to combat land degradation is needed to ensure a return to the safe operating space for the land-based planetary boundaries. Just as the planetary boundaries are interconnected, so must be the actions to prevent or slow their transgression. Principles of fairness and justice are key when designing and implementing transformative actions to stop land degradation, ensuring that benefits and burdens are equitably distributed. Agriculture reform, soil protection, water resource management, digital solutions, sustainable or “green” supply chains, equitable land governance along with the protection and restoration of forests, grasslands, savannas and peatlands are crucial for halting and reversing land and soil degradation. Regenerative agriculture is primarily defined by its outcomes, including improved soil health, carbon sequestration and biodiversity enhancement. Agroecology emphasises holistic land management, including the integration of forestry, crops and livestock management. Woodland regeneration, no-till farming, nutrient management, improved grazing, water conservation and harvesting, efficient irrigation, intercropping, organic fertiliser, improved use of compost and biochar – can all enhance soil carbon and boost yields. Savannas are under severe threat from human-induced land degradation, yet are essential for ecological and human wellbeing. A major store of biodiversity and carbon, they cover 20% of the Earth’s land surface but are increasingly being lost to cropland expansion and misguided afforestation. The current rate of groundwater extraction exceeds replenishment in 47% of global aquifers, so more efficient irrigation is crucial to reduce agricultural freshwater use. Globally, the water sector must continue to shift from “grey” infrastructure (dams, reservoirs, channels, treatment plants) to “green” (reforestation, floodplain restoration, forest conservation or recharging aquifers). More efficient delivery of chemical fertilizer is likewise essential: currently, only 46% of nitrogen and 66% of phosphorus applied as fertilizer is taken up by crops. The rest runs off into freshwater bodies, and coastal areas with dire consequences for the environment. New technologies coupled with big data and artificial intelligence have made possible innovations such as precision farming, remote sensing and drones that detect and combat land degradation in real time. Benefits likewise accrue from the precise application of water, nutrients and pesticides, along with early pest and disease detection. Plantix, a free app available in 18 languages, can detect nearly 700 pests and diseases on more than 80 different crops. Improved solar cookstoves can provide households with additional income sources and improve livelihoods, while reducing reliance on forest resources. Regulatory action, stronger land governance, formalisation of land tenure and better corporate transparency on environmental impacts are all needed as well. Numerous multilateral agreements on land-system change exist but have largely failed to deliver. The Glasgow Declaration to halt deforestation and land degradation by 2030 was signed by 145 countries at the Glasgow climate summit in 2021, but deforestation has increased since then. Protecting intact peatlands and rewetting 60% of those already degraded could transform such ecosystems into a net sink, or sponge, of greenhouse gases by the end of the century. Currently, damaged peatlands account for 4% to 5% of global GHG emissions, according to the IUCN. http://www.unccd.int/resources/reports/stepping-back-precipice-transforming-land-management-stay-within-planetary http://www.unccd.int/news-stories/press-releases/planetary-boundaries-confronting-global-crisis-land-degradation June 2024 Poorest areas have zero harvests left. (BBC News) The UN says 40% of the world's land is already unable to sustain crops. Droughts and flooding have become so common in some of the poorest places on Earth that the land can no longer sustain crops. Martin Frick, Director of the World Food Programme's office in Berlin, Germany told the BBC that some of the most deprived areas had now reached a tipping point of having “zero” harvests left, as extreme weather was pushing already degraded land beyond use. He said that as a result, parts of Africa, the Middle East and Latin America had a heightened need for humanitarian support. He warns that without efforts to reverse land degradation globally, richer countries would also begin to suffer crop failures. The Global Environment Facility estimates that 95% of the world’s land could become degraded by 2050. The UN says that 40% is already degraded. When soil degrades, the organic matter that binds it together dies off. This means that it is less able to support plant life and absorb carbon from the atmosphere (reducing crop yields). Soil is the second largest carbon sink after the oceans, and is recognised by the UN as a key tool for mitigating climate change. “There's too much carbon in the air and too little carbon in the soils,” Mr Frick says. “With every inch of soil that you're growing, you're removing enormous amounts of carbon out of the atmosphere. “So healthy soils – carbon-rich soils – are one of the prerequisites to fixing climate change.” Land degradation can also be caused by modern farming techniques removing organic content from soil, but also prolonged droughts interspersed with sudden, extreme rainfall. Scientists say extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. Mr Frick said that in Burundi, in East Africa, months of heavy rain and flooding had damaged 10% of its farmland, making it unusable for the upcoming harvest season. He pointed to a UN report, released in March, which found that cereal crops in the Darfur region of Sudan were 78% below the average for the previous five years amid civil war and drought. Meanwhile, flash floods in Afghanistan earlier this year are estimated to have destroyed 24,000 hectares of land already considered highly degraded. Environmentalists expect that as soil degrades, failing crops will strain global food supplies and increase migration from affected areas. “It's going to be disaster for human beings,” says Praveena Sridhar, chief science officer of environmental group Save Soil. Mr Frick says that “what we are seeing is most worrying”. He said there was currently an “unhealthy dependence” on crops such as wheat, maize and rice, and the few nations that are large-scale exporters of them – creating food shortages that particularly affect the developing world when those nations’ harvests are interrupted. Noting how the Russian invasion of Ukraine caused grain shortages in places such as East Africa. Mr Frick says that to address land degradation, local communities in vulnerable states should be supported to rejuvenate degraded land through regenerative practices. He highlights a WFP project in Niger in which local women had created micro-dams in arid land to slow the movement of water, then used dung and straw to create a basin in which trees could be planted. The trees created shade from the sun, allowing the women to grow fruit and vegetables. “Suddenly, within the space of three to five years, the place that was really a desert comes back as agricultural production land without artificial irrigation,” he said. But Ms Sridar said the longer it takes to implement these sorts of regenerative farming techniques, the harder it will be to recover lost soil biodiversity – making humans increasingly vulnerable to shocks to the food supply. http://wmo.int/media/news/un-conference-stop-treating-land-dirt http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/dec/11/global-food-production-at-increased-risk-from-excess-salt-in-soil-un-report-warns http://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c977r51e1z0o http://www.unccd.int/news-stories/press-releases/silent-demise-vast-rangelands-threatens-climate-food-wellbeing-billions |
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