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	Unless coal, oil and gas are phased out we will continue to fuel climate disaster by UN News, CAN Network, agencies   A sample of reactions to the outcome of the COP 28 Climate Summit in Dubai:   13 Dec. 2023   Nearly every country in the world has agreed to “transition away from fossil fuels” – the main driver of climate change – at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai. It is the first time such an agreement has been reached in 28 years of international climate negotiations.   The commitment is included in the first “global stocktake” of how countries can accelerate action to meet the goals of the landmark Paris Agreement.   However, many countries walked away from the talks frustrated at the lack of a clear call for a fossil-fuel “phase-out” this decade – and at a “litany of loopholes” in the text that might enable the production and consumption of coal, oil and gas to continue for decades to come.   Despite an early breakthrough on launching a fund to pay for “loss and damage” from climate change, developing countries were left disappointed by a lack of new financial commitments for transitioning away from fossil fuels and adapting to climate impacts.   UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres's statement at the closing of the UN Climate Change Conference COP28:   "COP28 occurred at a decisive moment in the fight against the climate crisis – a moment that demands maximum ambition both in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and climate justice.   The Global Stocktake clearly reaffirmed the imperative of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees which requires drastic reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions in this decade.   For the first time, the outcome recognizes the need to transition away from fossil fuels – after many years in which the discussion of this issue was blocked. Science tells us that limiting global heating to 1.5 degrees will be impossible without the phase out of all fossil fuels on a timeframe consistent with this limit. This has been recognized by a growing and diverse coalition of countries.   To those who opposed a clear reference to a phase out of fossil fuels in the COP28 text, I want to say that a fossil fuel phase out is inevitable whether they like it or not.   All efforts must be consistent with achieving global net zero by 2050 and preserving the 1.5 degree goal. And developing countries must be supported every step of the way. The era of fossil fuels must end – and it must end with justice and equity.   COP28 agreed to commitments to triple renewables capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030. COP28 also offered some other building blocks for progress – including the operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund, even though financial commitments are very limited.   The new framework on adaptation action must be underpinned with credible climate policies and regulations, including a price on carbon and ending finance for fossil fuel. Both the preparation and implementation of these plans must be fully funded and supported. These plans must be aligned with the 1.5 degree temperature target and cover all greenhouse gases.   Much more is needed to keep the hope of the 1.5 degree limit alive and deliver climate justice to those on the frontlines of the crisis. Many vulnerable countries are drowning in debt and at risk of drowning in rising seas.   It is past time for a surge in finance, including for adaptation, loss and damage and reform of the international financial architecture. We need increased capital and reform of the business model of multilateral development banks to massively increase direct support – and to leverage far more private finance at reasonable costs for climate action in developing countries.   The world cannot afford delays, indecision, or half measures. It is essential to come together around real, practical and meaningful climate solutions that match the scale of the climate crisis".   UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell:   "These climate conferences are a consensus-based process, meaning all Parties must agree on every word, every comma, every full stop. This is not easy. It’s not easy at all. Whilst we didn’t turn the page to end the fossil fuel era in Dubai, there was recognition of the need to transition away from fossil fuels.   At COP28 countries pledged to tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency. All governments and businesses need to turn these pledges into real-economy outcomes, without delay.   COP28 needed to signal a hard stop to humanity’s core climate problem – fossil fuels and their planet-burning pollution. We are currently headed for warming just short of an alarming 3 degrees. It equates to mass human suffering.   The global stocktake showed us clearly that progress is not fast enough. Human lives in large numbers are being lost in every country to climate change.   There are vast benefits of bolder climate action. More security, stability and protection for eight billion people. More jobs, greater economic growth, less pollution and better health.   We must get on with the job of putting the Paris Agreement to work. In early 2025, countries must deliver new Nationally Determined Contributions. Every single commitment – on finance, adaptation, and mitigation – must bring us in line with a 1.5-degree world.   My message to people everywhere raising their voices for greater climate action. Every one of you is making a difference. In the crucial coming years, your voices and determination will be more important than ever – I urge you never to relent".   Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme, Inger Andersen:   “The deal is not perfect, but one thing is clear: the world is no longer denying our harmful addiction to fossil fuels. Now we move beyond bargaining to action. This means real action on a rapid transition away from fossil fuels, especially for the G20. To have any hope of doing this in line with what the science demands of us, we must unleash far greater finance to support countries in a just, equitable and clean transition, which is especially important for developing nations that must leapfrog to low-carbon development. We have the solutions; we know what needs to be done. And action can no longer wait.”   World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas   “The agreement at COP28 in Dubai is historic in that – for the first time – it recognizes the need to transition away from fossil fuels for the first time. This is an important step in the right direction but not the final goal. We urgently need to reduce our production and consumption of fossil fuels and speed up the transition to renewables. Time is running out”.   “WMO reports presented to COP28 highlighted the accelerating pace of climate change and its impacts on our planet and – through more extreme weather – on our daily lives. 2023 is virtually certain to be the warmest year on record, already about 1.4°C above the pre-industrial era when COP28 started in November. 2024 is expected to continue to be warm, perhaps even hotter. It is imperative that we stay below the 1.5°C lower temperature limit of the Paris Agreement and we are getting perilously close”.   “Carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere keep reaching record levels year-on-year, meaning that temperatures will continue to rise in the coming decades, given the long lifetime of CO2".   Madeleine Diouf Sarr, chair of the Least Developed Countries Group, which has almost 50 member states.   “This outcome reflects the very lowest possible ambition that we could accept rather than what we know, according to the best available science, is necessary to urgently address the climate crisis.   “Limiting warming to 1.5C is a matter of survival, and international cooperation remains key to ensuring it. Alignment with 1.5C not only requires countries to urgently reduce domestic carbon emissions but also the delivery of significant climate finance so that we can continue our leadership in going well beyond our fair share of the global effort when it comes to reducing emissions.   There is recognition in this text of the trillions of dollars needed to address climate change in our countries. Yet it fails to deliver a credible response to this challenge. Next year will be critical in deciding the new climate finance goal. Today’s outcome on the the Global Goal on Adaptation is full of eloquent language but regrettably devoid of actionable commitments.”   Nicholas Stern, chair of the Grantham Research Institute at the London School of Economics:   "The results of the global stocktake show clearly that the world is badly off track in the task of realising the goals of the Paris agreement. Failure to achieve the Paris agreement would leave the world in a very dangerous state.   The decision on the global stocktake explicitly recognises, for the first time in the outcome of a United Nations climate change summit, that the world needs to transition away from all fossil fuels, and towards cleaner alternatives, particularly renewables. It is clear that this transition must be worldwide, at scale, and urgent..   Countries must now respond to the outcome of Cop28 through a huge increase in investment in zero-emissions and climate-resilient economic development and growth, particularly in developing countries.   The text of the Global Stocktake decision rightly stresses the need to mobilise trillions of dollars in investment to accelerate cuts in greenhouse gases, strengthen adaptation and resilience, and respond to loss and damage. The goals of the Paris agreement will not be realised without a major and rapid increase in investment, particularly in developing countries".   Al Gore, former US vice-president:   “The decision at Cop28 to finally recognize that the climate crisis is, at its heart, a fossil fuel crisis is an important milestone. But it is also the bare minimum we need and is long overdue. The influence of petrostates is still evident in the half measures and loopholes included in the final agreement. Fossil fuel interests went all out to control the outcome, but the passionate work of millions of climate activists around the world inspired and motivated delegates from many nations to loosen the industry’s grip. Whether this is a turning point that truly marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era depends on the actions that come next and the mobilization of finance required to achieve them".   Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg:   "The final outcome of COP28 is not a 'historic win. It is yet another example of extremely vague and watered down texts full of loopholes that in no way is even close to being sufficient for staying within the 1.5°C limit and ensuring climate justice."   "This COP has once again proven that the COP processes are not working in our favor. They are not designed to solve the climate crisis. They are more working as an alibi for world leaders to hide behind their signature on a document while continuing to do nothing".   "We need drastic immediate emission cuts and binding commitments from the largest contributors of the climate crisis to finance loss and damages, adaptation, and a just transition in the most affected areas."   Climate scientist Dr Friederike Otto, Imperial College London, and co-founder of the World Weather Attribution group:   “The lukewarm agreement reached at Cop28 will cost every country, no matter how rich, no matter how poor. Everyone loses. It’s hailed as a compromise, but we need to be very clear what has been compromised. The short-term financial interests of a few have again won over the health, lives and livelihoods of most people living on this planet.   “With every vague verb, every empty promise in the final text, millions more people will enter the frontline of climate change and many will die. At 1.2C of warming, we’re already seeing devastating climate impacts that disrupt economies, destroy livelihoods and claim lives.   “Climate change is driving instability. Nearly every country wants stability, but until fossil fuels are phased out, the world will continue to become a more dangerous, more expensive and more uncertain place to live.”   A delegate from the Children and Youth observers said the agreement had “written her obituary at the age of 16”. In a fiery joint speech, two youth delegates criticised leaders for applauding the Global Stocktake despite its flaws. They also criticised the countries in the room for funding war while failing to spend enough on stopping climate change. “Not in our name. For shame.”   Prof Johan Rockstrom, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany:   “No, the Cop28 agreement will not enable the world to hold the 1.5C limit, but yes, the result is significant. The agreement delivers on making it clear to all financial institutions, businesses and societies that we are now finally – eight years behind the Paris schedule – at the true ‘beginning of the end’ of the fossil-fuel driven world economy. Yet the fossil-fuel statement remains too vague, with no hard and accountable boundaries for 2030, 2040 and 2050.”   Scientist Bill Hare, at Climate Analytics:   “Overall, the text looks like a major victory for the oil and gas producing countries and fossil fuel exporters.” The major problems with the text are: ⁠no commitment to phase out fossil fuels; no commitment to peak emissions by 2025; text on carbon capture that opens the door to false solutions at scale; text which refers to “transitional fuels” is code for gas and has been promoted by gas exporters".   Dr Ella Gilbert, at British Antarctic Survey:   “The Cop28 agreement finally puts into words what scientists have been saying for decades – that continued fossil fuel use must be eliminated to avoid the worst consequences of climate change. The record hot year of 2023 has given us a taste of what is to come and demonstrates how urgently we must act. While this eleventh-hour intervention is welcome, it will not be strong enough to avoid the worst impacts, devastating extreme events.”   Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy at Climate Action Network International:   “After decades of evasion, Cop28 finally cast a glaring spotlight on the real culprits of the climate crisis: fossil fuels. A long-overdue direction to move away from coal, oil, and gas has been set. Yet, the resolution is marred by loopholes that offer the fossil fuel industry numerous escape routes, relying on unproven, unsafe technologies. The hypocrisy of wealthy nations, particularly the US, as they continue to expand fossil fuel operations massively while merely paying lip service to the green transition, stands exposed.”   Inger Ashing, Chief Executive Officer, Save the Children International:   “The agreement on transitioning away from fossil fuels can only be a starting point to protect children who continue to bear the brunt of the climate crisis, a crisis not of their making.   Year after year, children share how the climate crisis impacts their lives. Imagine a world where your home, your school, and your family’s livelihoods are swept away. It’s a harsh reality that children on the frontlines of the climate crisis are facing today.   It’s high time we stand with children and place their voices at the heart of every aspect of climate change decision-making and financing. Governments worldwide must take this decision to heart, accelerate towards a greener, safer, and more sustainable future for our children. We need to act now, our children’s lives depend on it.”   Laura Young, Tearfund Ambassador and Climate Scientist:   “The final outcome of the UN climate talks has shifted the dial though it falls short of the landmark energy agreement that would have hailed the end of the fossil fuel era. The result is a mixed bag of transitioning away from fossil fuels whilst opening the door to dangerous distractions and weakening of past commitments. We should applaud that countries have pledged to triple renewables and double energy efficiency by 2030, but unless coal, oil and gas are phased out at the same time, we’ll continue to fuel climate disaster."   Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, WWF Global Climate and Energy Lead, and COP20 President:   “The earth is down but not out, as countries agree to transition away from fossil fuels, but fall short of consensus on the full phase out of coal, oil and gas at COP28. Nevertheless, a decision to transition away from fossil fuels is a significant moment. After three decades of UN climate negotiations, countries have at last shifted the focus to the polluting fossil fuels driving the climate crisis. This outcome must signal the beginning of the end for the fossil fuel era.   It is unfortunate that with the inclusion of the word ‘unabated’, the outcome suggests there is a considerable role for dangerous distractions such as large-scale carbon capture and storage and ‘transitional fuels’. This is not the case. For a liveable planet we need a full phase out of all fossil fuels. The Global Stocktake is clear that eight years on from the Paris Agreement, we are still way off course to limit global warming to 1.5C and avert the worst impacts of the climate crisis. In this critical decade, all countries must enhance the ambition and implementation of climate action. It is vital that countries work now to transform their energy systems and replace polluting fossil fuels with clean and cheaper renewable energy, such as wind and solar, at an unprecedented speed and scale.”   Nikki Reisch, CIEL’s Director of Climate & Energy Program:   “Countries at COP28 faced a choice between fossil fuels and life. And big polluters chose fossil fuels. Despite the unstoppable momentum and unequivocal science behind the need for a clear signal on the phaseout of oil, gas, and coal – free of loopholes or limitations – the text failed to deliver one. This failure was thirty years in the making, borne of a process that allows a select few countries to hold progress hostage and the fossil fuel industry not just to sit at the table, but to play host. Survival cannot depend on lowest-common-denominator outcomes. We need alternative forums to manage the decline of fossil fuels, free from the influence of those who profit from them. So long as the biggest polluters continue recklessly expanding oil and gas and staunchly refusing to provide climate finance on anything approaching the scale needed, the world will remain on a death course. Ultimately, lives depend not on what countries profess in these halls, but what they do outside of them. And we will continue to hold them accountable; the people-powered movement fighting for climate justice and the end of the fossil era will not back down.”   Neil Thorns, director of advocacy at CAFOD:   “Cop28 has confirmed what we need to do with an explicit reference to a world without fossil fuels. But with little new funding, the ‘how’ this happens in a fair and rapid way to support the needs of low-income countries whose populations are suffering from the climate crisis is far from clear. It risks pushing those countries further into a debt crisis.”   Samoa's lead delegate Anne Rasmussen, representing the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS):   "The course correction that is needed has not been secured. The deal has a litany of loopholes.. We have made an incremental advancement over business as usual when what we really needed is an exponential step-change in our actions and support.. It is not enough for us to reference the science and then make agreements that ignore what the science is telling us we need to do. This is not an approach that we should be asked to defend.”   Brianna Fruean, a Samoan climate activist:   “The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change process is broken. We saw so many fossil fuel lobbyists here, and obviously while we are upset at the results, there's people here who are celebrating. Somebody here has had a successful COP, that's the 2,000+ lobbyists. And you know, we're given crumbs to celebrate, but it's like asking us to celebrate flowers that will lie on our graves, you know, how do we celebrate that?"   John Silk, head of the Marshall Islands delegation:   "I came here to build a canoe together.. We have built a canoe with a weak and leaky hull, full of holes. Yet we have to put it in the water because we have no other option."   Landry Ninteretse, Regional Director, 350Africa.org   "Our expectation was that COP 28 would, at the very least, demonstrate commitment to course correcting and charting a path to a complete phase out of all fossil fuels, a sustainable future built on renewables, ambitious adaptation finance and clear technology transfer commitments by rich nations. The support for the tripling of renewable energy, has ignited optimism and energized communities that have been putting their own power behind the call to power up renewables. However the process failed to deliver on the commitment to a full, fast and fair phase out of fossil fuels and was lacking in the climate finance to support adaptation and mitigation in the most climate vulnerable nations. To truly deliver climate justice, the biggest polluters must lead on the phaseout and commit to supporting the deployment of renewable energy in Africa”.   Prof Martin Siegert, University of Exeter, UK:   “The science is perfectly clear. Cop28, by not making a clear declaration to stop fossil fuel burning is a tragedy for the planet and our future. The world is heating faster and more powerfully than the COP response to deal with it.”   Associate Professor James Dyke, University of Exeter:   “Cop28 needed to deliver an unambiguous statement about the rapid phase out of fossil fuels, given record-breaking global temperature and greenhouse gas emissions. Unfortunately, that did not happen. While the agreement’s call for the need to transition away from fossil fuels is welcome, it has numerous caveats and loopholes that risks rendering it meaningless when it comes to our efforts to limit warming to well below 2C. That this deal has been hailed as a landmark is more a measure of previous failures than any step change when it comes to the increasingly urgent need to rapidly stop burning coal, oil and gas.”   Mike O’Sullivan, University of Exeter:   “It’s obvious to most people that limiting global warming means reducing fossil fuel use, but only now do our leaders say this. But so what? Where are the real global plans for the energy transition, without relying on fanciful tech solutions, with adequate support for poorer nations? Where is the global leadership to take the right action, not the selfish action? Across the globe, there are plans to expand fossil production – how does this fit with the text that’s just been agreed?"   Dr Emma Lawrance, Imperial College London, UK said:   “The Cop negotiations are ultimately negotiating human health and wellbeing – mental and physical. However, unless developed countries lead the way in delivering emission cuts and the fair funding structures other countries need to act, the cost of inaction will be lives, and quality of life.”   Dr Leslie Mabon, Open University, UK:   “A lot of the blame for slow-walking these climate talks and watering down the final text will rightly be placed on the major oil-producing states. However, the outcome is also a wake-up call for wealthier and historically high-emitting nations. Countries like the UK, the US and those in the European Union need to walk the walk on climate change if they want to be seen as credible climate leaders globally. This means showing leadership by reducing our own production of and demand for fossil fuels.”   Prof Daniela Schmidt, University of Bristol:   “The time for talking is over. Delaying change further is indefensible. Pretending that reducing emissions by 2050 is enough ignores the dangerous, life-threatening consequences of our anthropogenic heating of the planet. There are still trillions in subsidies given every year to fossil fuel industries who make money for their shareholders ignoring the consequences. Why is that money not redirected to help communities adapt and change the way we live?”   Prof Gulcin Ozkan, King’s College London,UK:   “The final declaration falls short on many levels. First, it is vague with no timeframe, hence the process can potentially take a very long time. Second, there is no clear commitment regarding financial support to the less developed countries in their transition. Finally, and surprisingly, there is no mention of a net zero target for methane emissions.”   Dr Elena Cantarello, Bournemouth University, UK:   “It is hugely disappointing to see how a very small number of countries have been able to put short term national interests ahead of the future of people and nature.”   Mary Robinson, Chair of The Elders and former President of Ireland:   “The Cop28 agreement, while signalling the need to bring about the end of the fossil fuel era, falls short by failing to commit to a full fossil fuel phase out. If 1.5C is our ‘North Star’, and science is our compass, we must swiftly phase out all fossil fuels to chart a course towards a liveable future. World leaders must continue to urgently pull together and find ways forward to tackle this existential threat. Every day of delay condemns millions to an uninhabitable world.”   http://climatenetwork.org/2023/12/13/new-path-to-transition-away-from-fossil-fuels-marred-by-lack-of-finance-and-loopholes/ http://www.iied.org/historical-cop28-outcomes-nowhere-near-enough-for-least-developed-countries http://350.org/press-release/210570/ http://www.unicef.org/press-releases/statement-unicef-deputy-executive-director-kitty-van-der-heijden-conclusion-cop28 http://www.care-international.org/news/landmark-agreements-cop28-deal-weak-adaptation-finance http://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/12/global-what-happened-at-cop28-essential-need-to-knows/ http://www.unocha.org/news/cop28-four-outcomes-matter-aid-community http://unocha.exposure.co/seven-things-you-need-to-know-about-climate-change http://mediacentre.christianaid.org.uk/2023-costliest-climate-disasters-reveal-global-postcode-lottery-christian-aid-study-finds/   http://www.carbonbrief.org/cop28-key-outcomes-agreed-at-the-un-climate-talks-in-dubai/ http://www.ciel.org/news/cop28-ciel-comment-cop28-dubai-summit-people-powered-progress-and-fossil-fueled-failure/ http://climateanalytics.org/press-releases/cop28-decision-a-first-nail-in-the-coffin-for-the-fossil-fuel-industry http://climateactiontracker.org/publications/cop28-initiatives-create-buzz-will-only-reduce-emissions-if-followed-through/ http://insideclimatenews.org/news/13122023/cop28-does-not-deliver-clear-path-to-fossil-fuel-phase-out/ http://www.greenpeace.org/international/story/64386/cop28-signal-fossil-fuel-industry/   http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/14/failure-cop28-fossil-fuel-phase-out-devastating-say-scientists http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/13/indigenous-people-and-climate-justice-groups-say-cop28-was-business-as-usual http://insideclimatenews.org/news/25122023/climate-treadmill-at-cop28-not-going-anywhere/ http://www.ifrc.org/press-release/cop28-urgency-action-and-funds-are-missing http://www.concern.net/press-releases/concerns-response-cop28-mix-cautious-welcome-and-deep-frustration http://www.ipsnews.net/topics/cop28/ http://www.hrw.org/news/2023/12/14/cop28-fossil-fuel-commitment-lacks-urgency http://www.france24.com/en/environment/20231212-how-lending-based-climate-finance-is-pushing-poor-countries-deeper-into-debt http://csas.earth.columbia.edu/blog/communications
	Action to protect people and nature is more urgent than ever by UNEP, SEI, IISD, WMO, agencies   Nov. 2023   Fossil Fuel production plans vastly exceed the World’s Climate Goals: ‘Throwing Humanity’s Future into Question’ (UNEP, SEI, IISD, agencies)   The world’s top fossil-fuel producing nations are still planning to increase their output of oil, gas and coal far beyond what the world’s climate targets would allow, according to the Production Gap Report released by the United Nations.   The findings reveal a ever widening gap between the emissions-cutting pledges nations have made and their continued policies to promote fossil fuel production.   Even as a majority of countries have adopted net-zero pledges to cut their climate emissions, their own plans and projections put them on track to extract more than twice the level of fossil fuels by 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, and nearly 70 percent more than would be consistent with 2 degrees Celsius of warming, according to the report issued by the U.N. Environment Program.   Scientists say that beyond 1.5 degrees of warming, more extreme and dangerous changes to planetary systems become increasingly certain.   This “production gap” between planned output and climate goals is a warning, the report underlines, noting that the transition away from fossil fuels remains way off-course.   U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called the findings “a startling indictment of runaway climate carelessness.”   Inger Andersen, the executive director of U.N. Environment Program, said that “governments’ plans to expand fossil fuel production are undermining the energy transition needed to achieve net-zero emissions, throwing humanity’s future into question.”   The 2023 Production Gap Report: “Phasing down or phasing up? Top fossil fuel producers plan even more extraction despite climate promises” is produced by Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Climate Analytics, E3G, International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).   It assesses governments’ planned and projected production of coal, oil, and gas against global levels consistent with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal.   “Governments are literally doubling down on fossil fuel production; that spells double trouble for people and the planet,” said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. “We cannot address climate catastrophe without tackling its root cause: fossil fuel dependence. The upcoming climate conference COP28 must send a clear signal that the fossil fuel age is out of gas — that its end is inevitable. We need credible commitments to ramp up renewables, phase out fossil fuels, and boost energy efficiency, while ensuring a just, equitable transition.”   July 2023 was the hottest month ever recorded, and likely the hottest for the past 120,000 years, according to climate scientists. Across the globe, deadly heat waves, droughts, wildfires, storms, and floods are costing lives and livelihoods, making clear that human-induced climate change is here. Global carbon dioxide emissions — almost 90% of which come from fossil fuels — rose to record highs in 2021–2022.    The 2023 Production Gap Report offers newly expanded country profiles for 20 major fossil-fuel-producing countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Germany, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America. These profiles reveal that most of these governments continue to provide significant policy and financial support for fossil fuel production.   “We find that many governments are promoting fossil gas as an essential ‘transition’ fuel but with no apparent plans to transition away from it later,” says Ploy Achakulwisut, a lead author on the report and SEI scientist. “But science says we must reduce global coal, oil, and gas production and use now — along with scaling up clean energy, reducing methane emissions from all sources, and other climate actions — to keep the 1.5°C goal alive.”   "The writing’s on the wall for fossil fuels. By mid-century we need to have consigned coal to the history books, and cut oil and gas production by at least three quarters. Yet despite their climate promises, governments plan on ploughing yet more money into a dirty, dying industry, while opportunities abound in a flourishing clean energy sector. On top of economic insanity, it is a climate disaster of our own making.” – Neil Grant, Climate and Energy Analyst, Climate Analytics   "Despite governments around the world signing up to ambitious net zero targets, global coal, oil and gas production are all still increasing while planned reductions are nowhere near enough to avoid the worst effects of climate change. This widening gulf between governments' rhetoric and their actions is not only undermining their authority but increasing the risk to us all. We are already on track this decade to produce 460% more coal, 82% more gas, and 29% more oil than would be in line with the 1.5°C warming target. Ahead of COP28, governments must look to dramatically increase transparency about how they will hit emissions targets and bring in legally binding measures to support these aims." – Angela Picciariello, Senior Researcher, IISD   http://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/governments-plan-produce-double-fossil-fuels-2030-15degc-warming http://www.unep.org/resources/production-gap-report-2023 http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/08/insanity-petrostates-planning-huge-expansion-of-fossil-fuels-says-un-report http://insideclimatenews.org/news/08112023/un-production-fossil-fuels-outstrip-climate-goals/ http://news.un.org/en/story/2023/11/1143342 http://www.dw.com/en/world-must-rapidly-cut-emissions-or-see-nearly-3-c-warming/a-67496910 http://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2023 http://globalcarbonbudget.org/fossil-co2-emissions-at-record-high-in-2023/ http://climatetrace.org/explore/co2e100-2022 http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/11/fossil-fuel-phase-out-climate-breakdown-protect-natural-world-cop28 http://350.org/press-release/powering-up-for-climate-justice-350-org-launches-report-on-global-renewable-energy-target/   Nov. 2023   Adaptation Gap Report 2023: Underfinanced. Underprepared - Inadequate investment and planning on climate adaptation leaves world exposed - UN Environment Programme   Progress on climate adaptation is slowing on all fronts when it should be accelerating to catch up with rising climate change impacts and risks, according to a new United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report.   The Adaptation Gap Report 2023 finds that the adaptation finance needs of developing countries are 10-18 times as big as international public finance flows – over 50 per cent higher than the previous range estimate.   "Today’s Adaptation Gap Report shows a growing divide between need and action when it comes to protecting people from climate extremes. Action to protect people and nature is more pressing than ever," UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in his message on the report. “Lives and livelihoods are being lost and destroyed, with the vulnerable suffering the most.”   "We are in an adaptation emergency. We must act like it. And take steps to close the adaptation gap, now," he added.   As a result of the growing adaptation finance needs and faltering flows, the current adaptation finance gap is now estimated to be US$194-366 billion per year. At the same time, adaptation planning and implementation appear to be plateauing. This failure to adapt has massive implications for losses and damages, particularly for the most vulnerable.   “In 2023, climate change yet again became more disruptive and deadly: temperature records toppled, while storms, floods, heatwaves and wildfires caused devastation,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP. “These intensifying impacts tell us that the world must urgently cut greenhouse gas emissions and increase adaptation efforts to protect vulnerable populations. Neither is happening.”   “Even if the international community were to stop emitting all greenhouse gases today, climate disruption would take decades to dissipate,” she added. “So, I urge policymakers to take heed of the Adaptation Gap Report, step up finance and make COP28 the moment that the world committed fully to protecting low-income countries and disadvantaged groups from damaging climate impacts.”   Finance, planning and implementation waning   The modelled costs of adaptation in developing countries are estimated at US$215 billion per year this decade and are projected to rise significantly by 2050. The adaptation finance needed to implement domestic adaptation priorities, based on extrapolation of costed Nationally Determined Contributions and National Adaptation Plans to all developing countries, is estimated at US$387 billion per year.   Despite these needs, public multilateral and bilateral adaptation finance flows to developing countries declined by 15 per cent to US$21 billion in 2021. This dip comes despite pledges made at COP26 in Glasgow to deliver around US$40 billion per year in adaptation finance support by 2025 and sets a worrying precedent.   While five out of six countries have at least one national adaptation planning instrument, progress to reach full global coverage is slowing. And the number of adaptation actions supported through international climate funds has stagnated for the past decade.   Ambitious adaptation can enhance resilience – which is particularly important for low-income countries and disadvantaged groups – and head off losses and damages.   The report points to a study indicating that the 55 most climate-vulnerable economies alone have experienced losses and damages of more than US$500 billion in the last two decades. These costs will rise steeply in the coming decades, particularly in the absence of forceful mitigation and adaptation.   Studies indicate that every billion invested in adaptation against coastal flooding leads to a US$14 billion reduction in economic damages. Meanwhile, US$16 billion per year invested in agriculture would prevent approximately 78 million people from starving or chronic hunger because of climate impacts.   However, neither the goal of doubling 2019 international finance flows to developing countries by 2025 nor a possible New Collective Quantified Goal for 2030 will significantly close the adaptation finance gap on their own and deliver such benefits.   The report identifies a number of ways to increasing financing, including through implementation of Article 2.1(c) of the Paris Agreement on shifting finance flows towards low-carbon and climate resilient development pathways, and a reform of the global financial architecture, as proposed by the Bridgetown Initiative.   The new loss and damage fund will also be an important instrument to mobilize resources, but issues remain. The fund will need to move towards more innovative financing mechanisms to reach the necessary scale of investment.   http://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2023 http://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/what-are-uneps-climate-related-gap-reports-and-why-do-they-matter   Nov. 2023   Drought data shows “an unprecedented emergency on a planetary scale”: UNCCD   Recent drought-related data based on research in the past two years and compiled by the UN point to “an unprecedented emergency on a planetary scale, where the massive impacts of human-induced droughts are only starting to unfold.”   According to the report, ‘Global Drought Snapshot,’ launched by the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) at the outset of COP28 climate talks in the UAE, few if any hazard claims more lives, causes more economic loss and affects more sectors of societies than drought.   UNCCD is one of three Conventions originated at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro. The other two address climate change (UNFCCC) and biodiversity (UN CBD).   Says UNCCD Executive Secretary Ibrahim Thiaw: “Unlike other disasters that attract media attention, droughts happen silently, often going unnoticed and failing to provoke an immediate public and political response. This silent devastation perpetuates a cycle of neglect, leaving affected populations to bear the burden in isolation.”   “The Global Drought Snapshot report speaks volumes about the urgency of this crisis and building global resilience to it. With the frequency and severity of drought events increasing, as reservoir levels dwindle and crop yields decline, as we continue to lose biological diversity and famines spread, transformational change is needed. We hope this publication serves as a wake-up call.”   http://www.unccd.int/news-stories/press-releases/drought-data-shows-unprecedented-emergency-planetary-scale-un   2023 State of Climate Services: Health. (WMO)   World Meteorological Organization's annual State of Climate Services report this year focuses on health. It highlights the need for tailored climate information and services to support the health sector in the face of more extreme weather and poor air quality, shifting infectious disease patterns and food and water insecurity.   “Practically the whole planet has experienced heatwaves this year. The onset of El Niño in 2023 will greatly increase the likelihood of breaking temperature records further, triggering more extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the ocean – and making the challenge even greater,” says WMO Secretary-General, Prof. Petteri Taalas.   “It is clear that by channelling investment and boosting collaboration, there is huge potential to go further and faster by enhancing the impact of climate science and services so that health partners get the support they need at a time when unprecedented changes to our climate are having an increasing impact,” says Prof. Taalas.   The report, which includes input from more than 30 collaborating partners, features case studies from around the world showcasing how integrated climate and health action makes a very real difference in people’s daily life.   “The climate crisis is a health crisis, driving more severe and unpredictable weather events, fuelling disease outbreaks, and contributing to higher rates of noncommunicable diseases,” said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General. "By working together to make high-quality climate services more accessible to the health sector, we can help to protect the health and well-being of people facing the perils of climate change."   The number of medium- or large-scale disaster events is projected to reach 560 a year – or 1.5 each day – by 2030. Countries with limited early warning coverage have disaster mortality that is eight times higher than countries with substantial to comprehensive coverage, according to figures cited in the report.   A special section is devoted to extreme heat, which causes the greatest mortality of all extreme weather. However the impacts are underestimated as heat-related mortality could be 30 times higher than what is currently recorded. Heat warning services are provided to health decision makers in only half of the affected countries, but are expected to rapidly increase by 2027 under the international Early Warnings for All initiative.   Between 2000 and 2019, estimated deaths due to heat were approximately 489,000 per year, with a particularly high burden in Asia (45%) and Europe (36%). Extreme heat conditions during the summer of 2022, were estimated to have claimed over 60,000 excess deaths in 35 European countries.   Heatwaves also exacerbate air pollution, which is already responsible for an estimated 7 million premature deaths every year and is the fourth biggest killer by health risk factor.   Climate change is exacerbating risks of food insecurity. In 2012-2021, 29% more global land area was affected by extreme drought for at least one month per year than in 1951–1960. The compounding impacts of droughts and heatwave days were associated with 98 million additional people reporting moderate to severe food insecurity in 2020 than annually in 1981–2010, in 103 countries analysed, according to figures cited in the report.   The changing climatic conditions are also enhancing the transmission of many climatically sensitive infectious vector-, food-, and water-borne diseases. For example, dengue is the world’s fastest-spreading vector-borne disease, whilst the length of the malaria transmission season has increased in parts of the world.   Some of the most significant challenges to health are in the nexus of water, food security and nutrition, the nexus of infectious diseases (food-, water-, airborne and vector-borne diseases), and the nexus of extreme weather and air quality, particularly in urban areas, says the report.   Climate change undermines health determinants and increases pressures on health systems threatening to reverse decades of progress to promote human health and well-being, particularly in the most vulnerable communities.   The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes, with very high confidence, that future health risks from injury, disease, and death will increase due to more intense and frequent temperature extremes, cyclones, storms, floods, droughts, and wildfires.   http://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/climate-change-bad-health-climate-services-save-lives http://www.lancetcountdown.org/about-us/interact-with-the-key-findings/ http://www.who.int/news/item/27-11-2023-global-health-community-calls-for-urgent-action-on-climate-and-health-at-cop28 http://www.msf.org/cop28-more-failure-not-option-vulnerable-communities   The world’s most fragile countries are those most impacted by climate change. (WFP)   The world must rapidly scale up protection for vulnerable people on the frontlines of the climate crisis, the World Food Programme (WFP) warns, a week before world leaders meet in Dubai for the next UN Climate Summit, COP28. Last year alone, climate extremes pushed 56.8 million people into acute food insecurity.   Many of the world’s most fragile countries are those most impacted by climate change. The climate crisis doesn’t have to be a hunger crisis, but that’s exactly what’s happening. We have a collective duty to protect and support people living on the edge of this growing disaster and we need to do it now, says the World Food Programme.   WFP is calling for immediate support to scale up climate protection for food-insecure communities whose lives and livelihoods are threatened by global warming, particularly in fragile and conflict-affected settings.   Without decisive and transformational action to protect communities against extreme weather events, the world will see growing hunger, insecurity and displacement.   By strengthening local systems and directing more funding to contexts most at risk, it is possible to better protect local food systems from the worst impacts of climate extremes and avoid prolonged food insecurity.   However, as currently funded, the humanitarian system is struggling to keep up with the pace of escalating crises, pushing more and more people into hunger and weakening already strained food systems.   The world is coming dangerously close to permanently passing the critical 1.5°C degrees limit of global warming. The first half of this year saw the longest-lived tropical cyclone on record in southern Africa and record-breaking heatwaves and wildfires across Europe, North America and Asia. The rains that arrived after the three-year long drought in the Horn of Africa brought flash floods and mass displacement, rather than relief to farmers.   With over 333 million people facing acute food insecurity and a more than 60 percent shortfall in WFP funding this year, it is critical that the world prioritizes protecting people from climate shocks.   http://www.wfp.org/stories/cop28-4-ways-world-can-curb-loss-and-damage-climate-change-fuels-hunger http://www.nrc.no/feature/2023/10-things-to-know-about-climate-change-and-displacement/ http://www.unicef.org/reports/children-displaced-changing-climate http://www.msf.org/cop28-more-failure-not-option-vulnerable-communities http://www.unocha.org/roadmap-cop28 http://www.rescue.org/press-release/failure-deadly-vulnerable-countries-need-climate-action-now-says-irc-ahead-cop28 http://www.ohchr.org/en/documents/thematic-reports/ahrc5347-adverse-impact-climate-change-full-realization-right-food   http://www.savethechildren.net/news/cop28-number-children-facing-hunger-due-weather-extremes-more-doubles-2022 http://www.unicef.org/reports/climate-changed-child http://www.gndr.org/global-network-of-civil-society-organisations-for-disaster-reduction-urges-bold-action-at-cop28-to-address-climate-crisis/ http://www.educationcannotwait.org/resource-library/futures-risk-climate-induced-shocks-and-their-toll-education-crisis-affected http://www.wvi.org/newsroom/rising-storms-climate-change-effects-exacerbating-conflict-and-hunger-crisis http://www.socialprotectionfloorscoalition.org/2023/12/cop28-global-coalition-for-social-protection-floors-calls-for-building-social-protection-systems-to-deal-with-loss-and-damage/   Ecological Threat Report 2023 - Institute for Economics and Peace   By 2050, 2.8 billion people will reside in countries facing severe ecological threats, compared to 1.8 billion today.   The Ecological Threat Report (ETR) analyses ecological threats globally and assesses the countries and subnational areas most at risk from conflict, civil unrest and displacement caused by ecological degradation and climate-related events. The report covers 221 countries and independent territories.   The main finding from the ETR is that without concerted action, current levels of ecological degradation will worsen, intensifying existing conflicts, and becoming a catalyst for new conflicts, thereby resulting in increases in forced migration.   The number of countries suffering from severe ecological threats and low societal resilience has risen by 3 to 30 in the last year. These 'hotspot' countries are home to 1.1 billion people, an increase of 332 million. The recent pressures on global food prices have placed additional demands on countries already suffering from food insecurity.   http://www.visionofhumanity.org/conflict-risk-escalates-amid-rising-food-and-water-scarcity-and-inflationary-pressures/   Oct. 2023   Postponing climate action leads to bigger increases in global temperature rise - Prof. Jim Skea, chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)   “What determines global warming is not the timing of net zero, but the pathway by which you get there. It is the cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide over time that are the main factor.   “The longer you put off action, the greater will be the cumulative CO2 emissions that have gone into the atmosphere, and therefore the higher the level of the warming. That’s the global point.”   “Every fraction of a degree matters”, Skea says, emphasising both “urgency and agency” in terms of climate action. “The situation we are in is urgent, we are in dire circumstances. But we can also do something about it if we choose to do so.”   http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/ http://www.ipcc.ch/reports/
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