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Record rise in Greenhouse gases in atmosphere, locking in long-term warming and extreme weather
by World Meteorological Organization (WMO), agencies
 
15 Oct. 2025
 
Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels rose by a record amount in 2024, reaching new highs and locking in further long-term warming and extreme weather, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
 
The surge was driven by continued human emissions, more wildfire activity and weakened absorption by land and ocean “sinks” – a development that threatens to create a vicious climate cycle.
 
The WMO’s latest Greenhouse Gas Bulletin shows that CO₂ growth rates have tripled since the 1960s, accelerating from an annual average increase of 0.8 parts per million (ppm) to 2.4 ppm per year, in the decade from 2011 to 2020.
 
The rate jumped by a record 3.5 ppm between 2023 and 2024 – the largest increase since monitoring began in 1957.
 
Average concentrations reached 423.9 ppm in 2024, up from 377.1 ppm when the bulletin was first published in 2004.
 
Roughly half of CO₂ emitted remains in the atmosphere, while the rest is absorbed by land and oceans; storage that is weakening as warming reduces ocean solubility and worsens drought.
 
The 2024 spike was likely amplified by an uptick in wildfires and a reduced uptake of CO₂ by land and the ocean in 2024 – the warmest year on record.
 
“There is concern that terrestrial and ocean CO₂ sinks are becoming less effective, which will increase the amount of CO₂ that stays in the atmosphere, thereby accelerating global warming,” said Oksana Tarasova, WMO senior scientific officer who coordinates the bulletin research.
 
Methane and nitrous oxide – the second and third most significant long-lived greenhouse gases – also set new emission records. Methane levels rose to 1,942 ppb, 166 per cent above pre-industrial levels, while nitrous oxide hit 338 ppb – a 25 per cent increase.
 
“The heat trapped by CO2 and other greenhouse gases is turbo-charging our climate and leading to more extreme weather. Reducing emissions is therefore essential not just for our climate but also for our economic security and community well-being,” said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.
 
http://wmo.int/news/media-centre/carbon-dioxide-levels-increase-record-amount-new-highs-2024 http://news.un.org/en/story/2025/10/1166110
 
13 Oct. 2025
 
Global forests are still in crisis. (Forest Declaration Assessment 2025)
 
Deforestation and degradation rates remained stubbornly high in 2024, pushing the world even further off track from the shared goal of halting and reversing forest loss by 2030.
 
While some countries are demonstrating that progress is possible, the global trend remains one of stagnation, not transformation.
 
The Forest Declaration Assessment 2025 finds that:
 
8.1 million hectares of forest were lost in 2024, a level of destruction 63% higher than the trajectory needed to halt deforestation by 2030. Loss of humid primary tropical forests—the irreplaceable stores of carbon and biodiversity—spiked In 2024, largely due to climate change-induced increase of forest fires.
 
Forest degradation affected 8.8 million hectares affected in 2024—eroding ecosystem integrity and climate resilience.
 
Restoration efforts are expanding, but global data remain too fragmented to determine whether the world is recovering forests at the scale required. Financial flows are still grossly misaligned with forest goals, with harmful subsidies outweighing green subsidies by over 200:1. Despite new pledges, the flow of funds to forest countries and local actors remains far below what’s necessary to deliver on 2030 goals. Delivery on corporate and financial sector commitments is lagging, and transparency remains inconsistent.
 
At the halfway point to 2030, the world should be seeing a steep decline in deforestation. Instead, the global deforestation curve has not begun to bend.
 
http://forestdeclaration.org/resources/forest-declaration-assessment-2025/ http://globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/forests/banks-make-26-billion-in-a-decade-of-financing-deforesting-companies/
 
Sep. 2025
 
We are putting the stability of the entire life support system on Earth at risk, reports the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
 
Scientists announce that 7 of 9 key 'planetary boundaries' have been crossed. (AFP)
 
A team of global scientists issued a new report this week, highlighting that seven out of nine of key "planetary boundaries" have been crossed.
 
Humans are gambling with the very stability of Earth’s life support systems, scientists warned, cautioning that ocean acidity is yet another key planetary threshold to be breached.
 
The team of global scientists assessed that seven of nine so-called “planetary boundaries” – processes that regulate Earth’s stability, resilience and ability to sustain life – had now been crossed.
 
Climate change, biodiversity loss, deforestation, freshwater depletion, overuse of agricultural fertilisers, and the release of artificial chemicals and plastics into the environment were all already exceeded.
 
In their new report, the scientists said all seven were “showing trends of increasing pressure – suggesting further deterioration and destabilisation of planetary health in the near future".
 
Destructive and polluting activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels, are driving these further into risky territory and increasingly interacting with each other.
 
“We are putting the stability of the entire life support system on Earth at risk,” said Johan Rockstrom, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), at a press conference to launch the research.
 
“We are moving even further away from the safe operating space, risking destabilising our Earth and with an increasing risk growing year by year,” said Levke Caesar, co-lead of Planetary Boundaries Science at PIK.
 
Many of the causes of deterioration are interlinked, showing both the wide-ranging impact of human activities but also avenues for action.
 
The use of fossil fuels is a key example, driving climate change as well as fuelling plastic pollution and the rise in ocean acidification. The world’s seas are estimated to have absorbed roughly 30 percent of the excess carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere from the burning of oil, gas and coal.
 
This alters the pH of the ocean, affecting the ability of organisms such as corals, shellfish and some forms of plankton to form shells and skeletons. Scientists said there was already evidence of shell damage, particularly for marine animals in polar and coastal regions.
 
“What we see in the data is no longer abstract. It is showing up in the world around us right now,” said Caesar.
 
One positive in this year’s dire report is that aerosol emissions have fallen, despite the continued scourge of severe particulate pollution in some regions. The final boundary – ozone depletion – remains within safe bounds, which scientists said demonstrates the success of global co-operation to restrict ozone-depleting pollutants.
 
Scientists have quantified safe boundaries for these interlocking facets of the Earth system, which feed off and amplify each other. For climate change, for example, the threshold is linked to the concentration of heat-trapping carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere.
 
This hovered close to 280 parts per million (ppm) for at least 10,000 years prior to the Industrial Revolution, and researchers suggest the boundary is 350 ppm. Concentrations in 2025 are 423 ppm.
 
The assessment of the world’s biodiversity and ecosystems is even more perilous. “Nature’s safety net is unravelling: extinctions and loss of natural productivity are far above safe levels, and there is no sign of improvement,” the report states.
 
24 Sep. 2025
 
Johan Rockstrom, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) address to heads of state at the United Nations General Assembly:
 
"It’s now 10 years since the world in Paris entered a legally-binding agreement to avoid dangerous climate change. Since then, science has become overwhelmingly clear: allowing long-term global warming to exceed 1.5°C constitutes danger.
 
And yet, greenhouse gas emissions continue rising and in 2024 annual global temperature change was pushed beyond 1.5°C for the first time on our watch. This is a deep concern. An even deeper concern is that warming appears to be accelerating, outpacing emissions.
 
The long-term average warming is now between 1.3 and 1.4°C. We are on a path to breach the 1.5°C multi-decadal boundary within the next 5-10 years. Here, we must admit failure.
 
Failure to protect peoples and nations from unmanageable impacts of human-induced climate change.
 
But we don’t have to keep failing. Returning to below 1.5°C by the end of the century must remain the obligation for all international efforts to limit dangerous climate change.
 
Extreme heat, fires, droughts, water scarcity, flooding and soil degradation, reinforced by us, are already impacting the lives of billions of people around the world. Beyond 1.5°C, these dangers will become increasingly unmanageable. Every tenth of a degree of avoided warming saves lives and livelihoods – this is not the time for resignation.
 
Beyond 1.5°C there is also a real risk of crossing tipping points. The most recent science concludes we are therefore dangerously close to triggering fundamental and irreversible changes.
 
If we make the right choices going forward, there are still ‘overshoot’ pathways that could bring temperatures back below 1.5°C by the end of this century. Such a narrow escape remains possible, but it will be extremely challenging. It requires deep and rapid reduction of all greenhouse gases, involving the near complete transition – starting now – away from fossil fuels.
 
We also know that cutting emissions won’t be enough. We need to massively scale up carbon dioxide removal (through natural processes). For each 0.1°C of planetary cooling, 200 billion tons need to be removed from the atmosphere.
 
But even if this succeeds, we fail, unless we safeguard the world’s most powerful carbon sink and cooling system - a healthy planet.
 
If we don’t return to the "safe operating space” of the nine Planetary Boundaries that regulate Earth’s stability, (including biodiversity, pollutants, land, nutrients and the ocean) a safe climate will be out of reach – irrespective of our mitigation efforts.
 
Don’t be fooled: we are currently following a path that will take us to 3°C in just 75 years.
 
An existential threat we have not experienced in the last 3 million years, and there is no guarantee that efforts to cool our planet will succeed.
 
My message today: science is clear – we have a planetary crisis on our watch. And we do have scalable solutions for phasing out fossil fuels, efficient resource use and transformation to healthy and sustainable food. Pathways that make us all winners. The window to a manageable climate future is still open, but only just. Failure is not inevitable. It is a choice".
 
http://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/johan-rockstrom-addresses-heads-of-state-during-united-nations-general-assembly-201cfailure-is-not-inevitable-it-is-a-choice201d http://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/seven-of-nine-planetary-boundaries-now-breached-2013-ocean-acidification-joins-the-danger-zone http://www.planetaryhealthcheck.org/ http://news.exeter.ac.uk/research/new-reality-as-world-reaches-first-climate-tipping-point/ http://global-tipping-points.org/ http://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adv2906 http://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2025/09/development-cannot-be-achieved-dying-planet-un-committee-issues-new-guidance http://climateandhealthalliance.org/press-releases/cross-cutting-report-reveals-devastating-global-health-impacts-of-fossil-fuels-thru-production-life-cycle-across-human-lifespan
 
Carbon credits are failing to help with climate change, by Andrew Macintosh, Gregory Trencher, Benedict Probst, Shanta Barley, Danny Cullenward, Thales West, Don Butler & Johan Rockstrom. (Nature)
 
Achieving the global temperature targets set in the Paris climate agreement requires deep, rapid cuts in greenhouse-gas emissions, and therefore the swift phase-out of fossil fuels. Many factors stand in the way. One of the most pernicious is carbon offsets.
 
Offsets are tradable credits from projects that claim to reduce emissions, either by avoiding them or by removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Businesses and countries trade these credits — each representing the equivalent of one tonne of CO2 — to ‘neutralize’ their own emissions.
 
Although conceptually appealing, this reliance on offsets has fatal flaws. In practice, it’s difficult to ensure that they represent real emissions reductions rather than ‘hot air’, with the claimed climate benefits existing only on paper. Equally challenging is ensuring that emission reductions are ‘additional’, meaning that they would not have occurred without the incentive provided by the sale of carbon credits. For projects credited for sequestering carbon, it is also crucial to ensure that the CO2 is locked away permanently and not released back into the atmosphere lat
 
Most carbon-offset schemes fall foul of one or more of these requirements. Thus, offsets undermine decarbonization by enabling companies and countries to claim that emissions have been reduced when they have not. This results in more emissions, delays the phase-out of fossil fuels and diverts scarce resources to false solutions.
 
Yet, climate-policy processes continue to rely on them. The operationalization of Article 6 of the Paris agreement and full implementation of the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation, both achieved in 2024, are set to turbocharge demand for carbon credits. In parallel, voluntary carbon markets are promising to raise standards as a way of further legitimizing and scaling up offsets.
 
Of greatest concern is the expanding role of offsets in domestic carbon-pricing schemes, such as emissions trading and carbon taxes. Although the European Union’s Emissions Trading System phased out offsets in 2020, they still feature in most major carbon-pricing schemes outside Europe, including in China, Korea, Japan, Indonesia, Singapore, California, Canada and Australia. They are even permitted as a substitute for paying carbon taxes in countries such as South Africa, Mexico, Chile and Colombia.
 
Such practices threaten to undermine global decarbonization efforts. Low-quality offsets artificially depress carbon prices, which dilutes the incentive for industries to cut their emissions and weakens the effectiveness of carbon-pricing schemes. We call on decision makers to exclude offsets from carbon-pricing schemes..
 
http://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-03313-z http://www.solargeoeng.org/african-ministers-call-for-a-non-use-agreement-on-solar-geoengineering http://www.ciel.org/geoengineering-biodiversity-risks/


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Governments’ fossil fuel plans steer world further from Paris Agreement warming limits
by Stockholm Environment Institute, IISD, agencies
 
Sep. 2025
 
Governments’ fossil fuel production plans continue to steer world further from Paris Agreement warming limits, 2025 Production Gap Report finds
 
10 years after the Paris Agreement, governments plan to produce more than double (120%) the volume of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, and 77% more than would be consistent with 2°C.
 
Achieving these plans would take the world further from the goals of the Paris Agreement, even as countries submit new climate commitments intended to fulfill their contributions to the pact.
 
When this assessment was last performed in 2023, the fossil fuel production gap was 110% above the 1.5°C warming pathway and 69% more than the 2°C pathway. These findings underscore the importance of upholding the 2023 UAE Consensus at COP28 to transition away from the use of fossil fuels in energy systems and phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.
 
The main findings of the 2025 Production Gap Report include:
 
Since the 2023 analysis, governments now plan even higher levels of coal production to 2035 and gas production to 2050. Planned oil production continues to increase to 2050.
 
To meet Paris Agreement goals of holding warming to well below 2°C while pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C, the world must now undertake steeper and faster reductions in fossil fuel production to compensate for lack of progress so far.
 
Meanwhile, governments expanding fossil fuel infrastructure waste public funds on development destined to become stranded assets.
 
Achieving these reductions will require deliberate, coordinated policies to ensure a just transition away from fossil fuels. While a few major fossil-fuel-producing countries have begun to align production plans with national and international climate goals, most still have not.
 
The 2025 Production Gap Report is produced by Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Climate Analytics, and International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD). It assesses governments’ planned and projected production of coal, oil, and gas against global levels consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C.
 
“In 2023, governments formally acknowledged the need to move away from fossil fuels to mitigate climate change – an obligation the International Court of Justice has now clearly emphasized,” says Derik Broekhoff, coordinating lead author of the Production Gap Report and climate policy program director at SEI’s US Center. “But as our report makes clear, while many countries have committed to a clean energy transition, many others appear to be stuck using a fossil-fuel-dependent playbook, planning even more production than they were two years ago.”
 
The 2025 Production Gap Report provides new analysis for 20 major fossil-fuel-producing countries responsible for about 80% of global fossil fuel production: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Germany, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
 
These profiles show that 17 of the 20 featured countries still plan to increase production of at least one fossil fuel to 2030. Eleven now expect higher production of at least one fossil fuel in 2030 than they had planned in 2023. On the other hand, 6 of the 20 profiled countries are now developing domestic fossil fuel production aligned with national and global net zero targets, up from four in 2023.
 
“To keep the 1.5°C goal within reach, the world needs rapid reductions in coal, oil, and gas investments, redirecting these resources toward an energy transition that prioritizes equity and justice,” says Emily Ghosh, coordinating lead author and equitable transitions program director at SEI US.
 
“By COP30, governments must commit to expand renewables, phase out fossil fuels, manage energy demands, and implement community-centered energy transitions to align with Paris Agreement obligations. Without these commitments, delaying action further will lock in additional emissions and worsen climate impacts on the world’s most vulnerable populations.”
 
More than 50 researchers from all over the globe contributed to the analysis and review, spanning numerous universities, think tanks and other research organizations.
 
Reactions to the 2025 Production Gap Report
 
“Let this report be both a warning and a guide. Renewables will inevitably crowd out fossil fuels completely, but we need deliberate action now to close the gap on time. What we need now is courage and solidarity to move forward at great speed with the just transition.“ – Christiana Figueres, former Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC.
 
“The increase in fossil fuel expansion plans over the last two years is alarming. While many governments see renewables as key to their energy security, others are betting against the clean energy transition. To avert the worst climate impacts with minimal economic disruption, governments need to commit to no new fossil fuels and back the clean industries of the future.” – Olivier Bois von Kursk, report co-author and Policy Advisor at the International Institute for Sustainable Development
 
“Ten years after Paris, renewables are way out in front of the pack. Instead of getting in the race, governments are blundering backwards towards our fossil past. While it’s frustrating seeing public money squandered on what will inevitably become stranded assets, it’s intolerably unjust to think about the human and environmental costs of these fossil expansion plans, especially for the most vulnerable.” – Neil Grant, report co-author and Senior Expert at Climate Analytics
 
http://www.sei.org/about-sei/press-room/production-gap-report-2025-press-release-2 http://productiongap.org/2025report/


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