Conflict, economic instability, rising costs pushing millions of children into deeper poverty by Catherine Russell UNICEF Executive Director   16 July 2026   Up to 23.4 million additional children could fall into monetary poverty by the end of the year, as ongoing tensions in the Middle East and related shipping disruptions continue to have a damaging and potentially irreversible impact on children, according to a new analysis by UNICEF released today.   The Impact of the War in the Middle East on Children in Monetarily Poor Households draws on data from over 167 countries and highlights how rising food and energy prices, and broader economic shocks resulting from escalating hostilities – including disruptions linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – are eroding what households can afford to buy. Children in the poorest households are disproportionately affected.   “Children are paying the price for the escalating conflict in the Middle East, including children far beyond the region,” said UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell.   “The longer this continues, the worse the consequences will be. Rapidly rising costs are making food and education unaffordable for many families. For children already living in poverty, these shocks deepen deprivation and can cause harm that lasts a lifetime.”   The report examines two possible scenarios: adverse and severe poverty. The adverse scenario reflects a moderate economic shock that could push an additional 18.3 million children into monetary poverty, while the severe scenario assumes stronger, more prolonged disruptions to prices and economic activity and projects that 23.4 additional children could be pushed into monetary poverty if the war continues.   The analysis shows that child monetary poverty is highly sensitive to macroeconomic shocks. Increasing food and energy costs, combined with limited fiscal space in many countries, are directly reducing families’ ability to meet basic needs.   The largest proportions of the global increase in monetary poverty are in Asia and Africa, with the two regions accounting for around 80 per cent of the total increase. Both continents reflect high baseline poverty rates and high vulnerability to external shocks.   For example, in Somalia, the Middle East crisis has had immediate consequences. Fuel prices in Mogadishu more than doubled within days of the escalation, increasing the cost of food, water, transport and humanitarian assistance as the country grapples with a deepening malnutrition crisis.   In Ethiopia, disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz have driven up fuel costs, with a knock-on effect on daily essentials. Diesel prices have risen by 31 per cent and humanitarian fuel costs have gone up by 50-70 per cent, making it more difficult to deliver aid to hard-to-reach communities.   In Nigeria, the economic shocks have exacerbated poverty. Low-income households spend between 60-70 per cent of their income on food and transport, meaning even a slight increase in prices reduces their purchasing power.   Across Bangladesh, the rising cost of staple foods such as rice, lentils, cooking oil, vegetables, fish and poultry, is putting increasing pressure on families, and an estimated 1.2 million more people could fall into poverty.   The report warns that the repercussions of the war are resulting in a reversal of years of global progress, and without timely and targeted policy responses, the crisis will push millions of children further behind, increasing the poverty gap and making it harder for families to recover. It is limiting families’ access to food, healthcare, education, and protection services, which are needed to ensure children’s physical and cognitive development.   UNICEF is calling on national governments, donor governments, and international financial institutions to protect children from the worst impacts of the crisis. Priority actions include:   Safeguarding domestic and international funding for services and supplies children rely on, including health, nutrition, education and child protection.   Scaling up and sustaining social protection systems, including child-sensitive cash transfers, ensuring continuity of support before subsidies are removed.   Facilitating children and families’ uninterrupted access to affordable essential services and supplies, including through minimum spending floors that rise with inflation.   Expanding fiscal space to protect domestic investment in essential services, including through debt-service suspension or debt restructuring in contexts where debt servicing exceeds spending on health, education, or social protection.   Setting up and implementing child-focused preparedness systems that allow support to reach children rapidly and at scale when shocks hit, including through global cooperation to mitigate the impact of evolving and future shocks.   “This crisis is putting the lives and futures of children at risk. If the world fails to act swiftly, the combined effects of conflict, economic instability and rising costs will push millions of children into deeper poverty,” said Russell. “We could see hard-earned development gains unravel.”   http://www.unicef.org/press-releases/over-23-million-additional-children-risk-poverty-middle-east-conflict-drives-global http://www.unicef.org/press-releases/famine-harsh-reality-children-acute-hunger-numbers-double-over-past-decade
	World Food Programme warns rising food and fuel prices pushing global hunger higher by UN News, WFP, OCHA, agencies   4 June 2026   Hormuz crisis sends shockwaves through global aid networks. (UN News)   What began as a geopolitical crisis in the Middle East nearly 100 days ago is increasingly becoming a food security crisis elsewhere, with UN agencies warning of rising hunger in Africa and malnourished children being turned away from medical clinics in Afghanistan.   Despite a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran, sporadic hostilities and continued uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz – one of the world's most important energy and shipping corridors – continue to reverberate through global supply chains, pushing up transport and fuel costs and straining aid operations already grappling with severe funding shortfalls.   Speaking at UN Headquarters in New York on Thursday, World Food Programme (WFP) Acting Executive Director Carl Skau said warnings issued earlier in the crisis about the knock-on effects of higher energy prices were now materialising in some of the world’s most vulnerable countries.   “Just to illustrate that what we warned against is now playing out in real time in many of these contexts,” he told reporters.   Several weeks ago, WFP warned that if oil prices remained above $100 a barrel through July, as many as 45 million additional people could be pushed into hunger because of the close relationship between energy and food prices.   That pressure is already mounting: an additional 2.5 million people in Somalia have become acutely food insecure, while a further 2.3 million people have been pushed into acute hunger in Afghanistan and another 1.3 million in Sri Lanka.   The drivers differ from country to country, Mr. Skau said, but include rising food prices, underfunded humanitarian responses and sharply higher operating costs that reduce the number of people aid agencies can reach with available resources. The longer-term outlook is equally troubling.   Mr. Skau warned that higher fertilizer costs may reduce agricultural productivity in east Africa during the coming planting season, echoing disruptions seen after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and raising the prospect of additional food shortages months from now.   The effects are increasingly visible in humanitarian supply chains.   The UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) warns that maritime diversions around the Cape of Good Hope are adding between two and four weeks to shipping times, while air freight capacity across Middle Eastern routes has tightened and congestion is spreading through ports in Africa and elsewhere.   “Increased transport costs mean less money for the lifesaving supplies children need,” said Jean-Cédric Meeus, UNICEF’s Chief of Global Transport and Logistics.   “What begins as a disruption to shipping lanes can spiral into a humanitarian crisis.”   According to UNICEF, air freight costs for vaccines shipped from India to Ethiopia, Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have risen by up to 70 per cent. Trucking costs for lifesaving therapeutic food destined for Somalia, South Sudan and the DRC have also increased by a third. Sea freight costs for education materials bound for Yemen and Mozambique have surged by as much as 150 per cent.   UNICEF estimates that supply disruptions could delay critical humanitarian cargo by four to six months.   “For a child in a crisis zone, delays in arrival of vaccines or nutrition interventions can mean the difference between life and death,” Mr. Meeus warned.   Few places illustrate the cascading consequences more starkly than Afghanistan. Fresh from a visit to the country, Mr. Skau described witnessing hundreds of mothers carrying visibly malnourished children away from a rural health clinic near Jalalabad because nutrition supplies had run out.   The shortages stem from a combination of funding cuts and supply-chain disruptions that have complicated deliveries previously routed through neighbouring countries.   “I've never seen anything like it,” Mr. Skau said. “The desperation in that clinic is hard to describe.”   Afghanistan is simultaneously coping with economic pressures linked to the regional crisis and the return of some 2.8 million people deported or repatriated from neighbouring countries over the past year.   The humanitarian consequences are part of a broader economic shock. Before the escalation began on 28 February, roughly a fifth of global oil shipments passed through the Strait of Hormuz.   Since then, disruptions have driven up crude oil prices and increased costs across transport networks and supply chains. Hundreds of vessels and tens of thousands of seafarers remain stranded.   A new analysis by the UN trade and development body, UNCTAD, warns that the burden is falling disproportionately on poorer countries.   Of 75 vulnerable economies studied, 65 are net oil importers. Together they are home to nearly one billion people, more than 30 per cent of whom live on less than $3 a day.   UNCTAD estimates that a sustained 50 per cent increase in refined oil prices would add more than $20 billion annually to their collective import bill. For some countries, including Mauritania, Gambia, Vanuatu, Maldives and Burkina Faso, the additional costs could exceed five per cent of national economic output.   The developments echo concerns previously raised by Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in April, when he warned that even under the most optimistic scenario, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz would depress economic growth, increase inflation and disrupt global trade.   He cautioned that a prolonged crisis could push millions more people into poverty and hunger while reversing hard-won development gains.   The ceasefire – albeit fragile – has reduced fears of immediate military escalation. Yet many of the consequences outlined by Mr. Guterres are already emerging: higher food and transport costs, disrupted supply chains, mounting pressure on vulnerable economies and growing humanitarian needs.   As Mr. Skau put it, the consequences that agencies warned about weeks ago are now “playing out in real time.”   http://news.un.org/en/story/2026/06/1167653 http://www.wfp.org/news/wfp-warning-becomes-reality-millions-middle-east-crisis-pushes-poorest-families-further-hunger http://reliefweb.int/report/sudan/joint-news-release-wfpfaounicef-risk-famine-persists-nearly-195-million-people-face-acute-food-insecurity-sudan http://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/joint-press-release-un-agencies-warn-worsening-hunger-and-malnutrition-crisis-somalia-famine-risk-emerges http://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/wfpfao-millions-trapped-deepening-hunger-crisis-drc-needs-far-outpace-humanitarian-response http://reliefweb.int/report/nigeria/nigeria-2026-lean-season-unprecedented-food-and-nutrition-crisis-advocacy-note http://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/wfp-scales-back-food-assistance-syria-amid-funding-shortfalls http://www.wfp.org/news/hunger-intensifies-south-sudan-78-million-people-face-high-acute-food-insecurity-and-22 http://reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan/afghan-women-and-children-pay-price-crises-converge-and-funding-shrinks http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/resources/countries-in-focus/en/ http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/countries-in-focus-archive/issue-152/en/ http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis http://www.wfp.org/stories/how-mideast-crisis-deepening-hunger-far-beyond-front-lines   * Central African Republic: "It only costs $16 to feed a displaced person for three months".   Edem Wosornu, Director of OCHA’s Crisis Response Division (8/5/2026). "Funding cuts threaten the humanitarian response—even though it only costs $16 to feed a displaced person for three months, and $26 dollars to provide them with healthcare for an entire year.. Only 17 per cent of the $268 million needed to assist 1.3 million people this year has been received to date".   http://www.ungeneva.org/en/news-media/news/2026/05/118476/central-african-republic-funding-cuts-put-humanitarian-support-risk   20 May 2026   Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out   The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not a temporary shipping disruption but the beginning of a systemic agrifood shock that could trigger a severe global food price crisis within six to 12 months, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has warned.   The FAO says that the severe disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have affected the movement of oil, liquefied natural gas, sulfur, and fertilizers - driving up agricultural input costs. As energy prices rise, agrifood systems become more expensive across all regions.   The impact is already visible. The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of globally traded food commodities, rose for a third consecutive month in April, driven by high energy costs and disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East. The shock is unfolding in stages: energy, fertilizer, seeds, lower yields, commodity price increases, then food inflation.   "What we are witnessing today is not only a geopolitical crisis, it is a systemic shock to the global agrifood system", says the Director-General of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), QU Dongyu.   As the crisis reaches its 100-day mark, its effects are becoming increasingly visible. Farmers across Asia, Africa, and Latin America are grappling with higher production costs and difficult choices regarding fertilizer use and crop decisions.   Import-dependent countries, in particular, are facing rising bills, while vulnerable households are losing purchasing power as inflation erodes incomes.   For many countries, especially in Africa and parts of Asia, these impacts are not occurring in isolation; they are compounding existing pressures from debt distress, climate shocks, conflict, and constrained public finances.   “The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not a regional issue – it is a global food security risk,” says QU Dongyu. Some 35% of global crude oil exports, 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, 30% of global fertilizer exports, and approximately 50% of global sulfur exports transit through this critical waterway. These essential flows are vital for food production, affecting energy and agricultural inputs significantly.   According to FAO, the window for preventive action is closing quickly. Decisions taken now by farmers and governments on fertilizer use, imports, financing and crop choices will determine whether a severe global food price crisis emerges within six to 12 months.   The time has come to "start seriously thinking about how to increase the absorption capacity of countries, how to increase their resilience to this situation, so that we start to minimize the potential impacts," FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero said.   This involves exploring "intervention by governments, by international financial organizations, by the private sector, and by UN agencies and other research centers to try to help countries to be able to cope better with the situation," Torero said.   The actions taken now will be critical in determining whether the world can manage the shock caused by the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz or face a far more serious food security crisis in the years to come.   "We must act early before humanitarian and economic costs rise," the Director-General said. This is particularly crucial at a time of elevated climate risk from a potentially strong El Nino, which could further amplify existing pressures   http://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-time-is-running-out/en   May 2026   Middle East Crisis: Risks and Impacts for Food Security in Tanzania (WFP)   Impacts: 33% surge in petrol and diesel prices. Soaring Transport Fares: Rising fuel costs have led to increased transport fares (15% - 25%). Commuter buses, ride-hailing taxis and long-distance bus fares have also been adjusted to reflect the increased operational costs for operators, causing increased financial strain on passengers.   Industrial and Logistics Impact: The hike in diesel prices is impacting the manufacturing sector, causing an increase in logistics and transportation costs, which in turn leads to increased prices for goods and food, impacting the overall cost of living.   Cost of Living Inflation: Rise in transport, food, and other household necessities, as businesses pass on the higher operational costs to consumers.   Sampled markets in Dar es salaam revealed increase in some food items after the introduction of new fuel prices in April 2026 as follows: Cooking Oil (20 – 24%), Drinking water (17% - 25%), Potatoes (17%), Bread (20%), Onions (18%).   Economic Strain: The surge in fuel prices, a result of disruptions in global supply, is putting pressure on the Tanzanian economy, with some analysts warning of a potential economic shock if the situation persists.   Low-Income Households: Rising food prices, resulting from higher transport costs, disproportionately impact the poor. Low-income households, small traders, and daily commuters are the most affected by fuel price surge.   http://reliefweb.int/report/united-republic-tanzania/middle-east-crisis-risks-and-impacts-food-security-tanzania-may-2026   Apr. 2026   The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) is warning that the total number of people around the world facing acute levels of hunger could reach record numbers in 2026 if the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East continues to destabilize the world’s economy.   New analysis by WFP estimates that almost 45 million more people could fall into acute food insecurity or worse (known as IPC3+) if the conflict does not end by the middle of the year, and if oil prices remain above USD 100 a barrel. These would add to the 318 million people around the world who are already food insecure.   When the Ukraine war began in 2022, triggering a cost of living crisis, global hunger reached record levels with 349 million people impacted. WFP’s latest projections indicate we are at risk of facing a similar situation in the months ahead if the Middle East conflict continues. During the 2022 period, food prices were fast to spike but slow to come down. This meant that vulnerable families already struggling with hunger were priced out of staple food items almost overnight, and for extended periods of time.   While in 2026 the conflict involves a global energy hub and not a breadbasket region, the potential impact is similar because energy and food markets are tightly correlated.   In many parts of the world, vulnerable families who today are currently managing to put some food on the table may soon find they are only able to afford little or no food.   “If this conflict continues, it will send shockwaves across the globe, and families who already cannot afford their next meal will be hit the hardest," said WFP Deputy Executive Director and Chief Operating Officer Carl Skau. "Without an adequately funded humanitarian response, it could spell catastrophe for millions already on the edge.”   The virtual shipping standstill in the Strait of Hormuz and mounting risks to Red Sea maritime traffic are already increasing energy, fuel, and fertilizer costs, deepening hunger beyond the Middle East. The conflict reverberates far and wide — and the world’s most vulnerable people are the ones who will be most exposed to its ripple effects.   According to WFP’s analysis, countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia are the most vulnerable due to a reliance on food and fuel imports. Projections indicate an increase of 21 percent in food-insecure people for West and Central Africa and 17 percent for East and Southern Africa. An increase of 24 percent is forecast for Asia.   Sudan, for example, imports around 80 percent of its wheat – a higher price for this staple will push more families into hunger. In Somalia, a country in the midst of severe drought, the price of some essential commodities has risen by at least 20 percent since the conflict began, according to local reports. Both are countries with high levels of food insecurity that have also experienced famine in recent years   This crisis comes amid severe funding shortfalls for WFP which has forced significant prioritization of programmes across all continents, ultimately meaning that people in need of assistance are being left behind. Further increases in food insecurity that are not matched by increased resources could spell catastrophe for some of the world’s most vulnerable countries that are already at risk of famine.   http://www.wfp.org/news/wfp-projects-food-insecurity-could-reach-record-levels-result-middle-east-escalation http://news.un.org/en/story/2026/03/1167147 http://www.unocha.org/news/closure-hormuz-could-have-immense-impact-humanitarian-operations-un-relief-chief-warns http://www.rescue.org/press-release/closure-strait-hormuz-and-regional-airspace-closures http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2026/apr/29/humanitarian-corridor-strait-of-hormuz-iran-war-hits-vital-aid http://news.un.org/en/story/2026/05/1167422 http://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-crisis--fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harvests-and-food-supplies--fao-warns/en http://www.fao.org/in-focus/middle-east-conflict-2026/en   23 Mar. 2026   Millions of people around the world at risk, after three weeks of the war in the Middle East, by Jorge Moreira da Silva, UN Under-Secretary-General and UNOPS Executive Director.   Severe disruptions in supply chains and shipping routes impact availability and prices of basic goods, increasing deprivation and vulnerability.   The escalation of conflict in the Middle East continues to have a devastating toll on civilians and livelihoods with global ripple effects.   Nearly a month into this devastating war, the impact is far reaching, across borders of conflict-affected countries, shaking the world economy amid exponential price hikes in oil, fuel and gas.   Disruptions to and closures of airspace, transportation, shipping routes and key humanitarian crossings across the Middle East are impacting humanitarian operations and commercial supply chains, including availability and prices of basic goods and pharmaceuticals.   The Strait of Hormuz carries around one quarter of global seaborne oil trade, along with large volumes of liquefied natural gas and fertilizers. Attacks on commercial vessels, stranded ships and seafarers threaten the delivery of basic supplies, risk higher food prices, and further strain fragile health systems. In Gaza, access restrictions are limiting the entry of life-saving supplies and hindering humanitarian operations.   Developing countries in Asia and the African continent are likely to bear the heaviest brunt. Disruptions in the Hormuz Strait compromise the delivery of energy supplies. Fertilizer markets are impacted, threatening food security in countries where famine or food insecurity are highest including Sudan, South Sudan, Afghanistan, Yemen and Somalia.   During the course of the year, the number of people living in hunger around the world is likely to increase by tens of millions. A widening war in the Gulf could also threaten remittance flows, primarily to South Asia.   Our world is the most violent it has been since the Second World War. The number of people uprooted and forced to flee their homes is increasing by the hour. One million people are now displaced in Lebanon, and another 3.2 million people in Iran. People around the region continue to search for safety. In most countries, no place is safe as schools, medical facilities and people’s homes are coming under constant attack.   Vulnerable people in the Middle East and beyond have suffered enough. Following decades of turmoil, repeated wars, economic stagnation, sanctions and socio-economic crises, people in the region deserve and need peace, stability and sustainable development.   There is no military solution. The only way to end this mayhem and people’s suffering is through diplomatic and peaceful solutions.   http://www.unops.org/news-and-stories/speeches/millions-of-people-around-the-world-at-risk-over-three-weeks-on-the-war-in-the-middle-east   8 Mar. 2026   WFP warns rising food and fuel prices risk pushing global hunger higher   The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) is warning that surging food and fuel prices driven by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could have ripple effects that will worsen hunger for vulnerable populations in the region and beyond.   The escalation has already had a devastating impact on civilians bearing the brunt of the violence through mass displacement, loss of life, and the destruction of essential infrastructure.   As the conflict disrupts supply chains, drives up costs and weakens the purchasing power of families, people already on the edge could be pushed further towards severe food insecurity.   Early impacts of the conflict on food security:   The conflict is already having immediate food security impacts in the Middle East. In Lebanon, significant internal displacement is occurring within a population that has been grappling with high levels of food insecurity for several years.   In Iran, preexisting economic pressures are compounding the crisis. Economic stagnation, high food inflation, and rapid currency depreciation were already driving food insecurity prior to the current conflict, leaving households with limited capacity to absorb further shocks.   In Gaza, border closures at the onset of the crisis triggered sharp food price increases. While one crossing have since reopened, food prices remain elevated, continuing to constrain access to affordable food.   Beyond the region, the conflict is causing severe global supply chain disruptions with an unprecedented ‘dual chokepoint’ scenario for transport affecting shipping, energy, and fertilizer markets with clear knock-on effects.   A significant share of the global fertilizer supply transits through the Strait of Hormuz; any disruption there risks reduced availability, lower crop yields, and hence higher global food prices.   Tom Fletcher, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator:   "The consequences of the war in the Middle East do not stop at the front lines. Beyond the impact on civilians, the fallout will ricochet through markets, shipping and aviation routes, and food prices – across the region and around the globe.   The impact on our lifesaving humanitarian work will be immense. Millions of people are at risk. We are already seeing this play out. Fuel prices have soared, driving up global shipping costs. Flight and maritime disruptions have slowed the movement of goods and personnel, putting humanitarian supplies at risk of six-month delays. Global supply chains are under strain.   And traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – one of the world’s most vital trade corridors – has slowed to a trickle. When ships stop moving through that Strait, the consequences travel fast. Food, medicine, fertilizer and other supplies become harder to move and more expensive to deliver.   Humanitarian supply chains are fragile. When routes close and costs surge, the help we can deliver shrinks – and the people who need it most are the ones who lose it first.   http://www.wfp.org/global-hunger-crisis http://www.wfp.org/stories/why-middle-east-conflict-threatens-record-levels-hunger http://www.wfp.org/emergencies/middle-east-conflict http://www.icrc.org/en/statement/icrc-president-war-on-essential-infrastructure-is-war-on-civilians http://www.unocha.org/latest/news-and-stories   * Oil prices and food prices move in concert with energy prices affecting every stage of the food supply chain from the fertilisers used in the fields to the trucks that carry food from the fields to supermarket shelves. Rising oil prices directly affect shipping and the cost of transportation.   In lower-income countries, where populations spend a far greater share of their income on food and import large quantities of grain and fertiliser, rising oil prices will translate into higher food prices and potential food shortages.   For much of the world, higher energy prices will raise the cost of living, lead to higher inflation and interest rates curtailing economic growth and increasing unemployment.   http://unctad.org/news/hormuz-shipping-disruptions-raise-risks-energy-fertilizers-and-vulnerable-economies http://news.un.org/en/story/2026/03/1167167 http://reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan/asia-and-pacific-humanitarian-impact-middle-east-escalation-3-april-2026 http://www.unescwa.org/publications/conflict-shockwaves-escalating-impacts-risks-energy-water-food-systems-arab-region http://allafrica.com/stories/202604030309.html http://www.fao.org/giews/country-analysis/external-assistance/en/ http://fews.net/global/food-assistance-outlook-brief/may-2026 Visit the related web page
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