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	Wars and extreme violence devastate people’s lives by OCHA, OHCHR, UNICEF, Red Cross, agencies   Oct. 2024   Mirjana Spoljaric, President of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC):   “The unbearable levels of suffering caused by today’s conflicts demand immediate action. Too many communities are being destroyed and too many families torn apart in today’s warzones. The international community must urgently reaffirm its commitment to international humanitarian law and prioritize protecting civilians. Strengthening this consensus is essential to our shared humanity."   http://www.icrc.org/en/statement/icrc-president-speech-international-conference-lebanon http://www.icrc.org/en/news-release/year-loss-and-pain-icrc-appeals-human-dignity-and-urgent-action-ease-suffering http://www.icrc.org/en/rulesofwar   27 Oct. 2024 (UN News)   UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has expressed shock at the “harrowing levels of death, injury and destruction” in north Gaza amid an ongoing intense Israeli military operation, his Spokesperson said on Sunday.   Since the offensive began earlier this month, hundreds of people have been killed, according to Gaza’s Ministry of Health, with more than 60,000 others displaced again, many fearing they may never return.   Civilians are reportedly trapped under rubble, while the sick and wounded lack access to life-saving care. They also face severe shortages of food and shelter, amid reports of family separations and mass detentions.   “The plight of Palestinian civilians trapped in North Gaza is unbearable,” read a statement from the UN chief’s Spokesperson.   Mr. Guterres warned that the “widespread devastation and deprivation” caused by Israel’s military operations – particularly around Jabalya, Beit Lahiya and Beit Hanoun – have made life “untenable” for the Palestinian population there.   Despite repeated efforts to deliver essential humanitarian supplies, including food, medicine, and shelter, access continues to be denied by Israeli authorities, with few exceptions, putting countless lives in jeopardy.   Adding to the crisis, the postponement of the final phase of the polio vaccination campaign in northern Gaza has endangered thousands of children.   Little regard for international law   “This conflict continues to be waged with little regard for the requirements of international humanitarian law,” the statement noted.   Mr. Guterres emphasised that the parties to the conflict must respect and protect civilians, including humanitarian workers and first responders, whose essential work must be facilitated and protected, not impeded and jeopardized.   “In the name of humanity, the Secretary-General reiterates his calls for an immediate ceasefire, the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages, and accountability for crimes under international law,” the statement concluded.   Other top UN officials echoed the urgent calls for a halt to Israel's military actions in northern Gaza.   Joyce Msuya, acting Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, warned that the entire population of northern Gaza is “at risk of dying”, calling for an immediate stop to “blatant disregard for basic humanity” by Israeli forces.   WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus described the situation as “catastrophic”, highlighting the collapse of Gaza’s healthcare system amid ongoing attacks on hospitals and healthcare workers, calling for an immediate ceasefire to save lives.   UN Human Rights Chief Volker Turk: “For months, I have pleaded with all parties to the conflict, as well as all States, particularly those with influence in the region, to act to stop the carnage and destruction, to ensure the prompt and unconditional release of all hostages, and to ensure international humanitarian and international human rights law are respected. But still this goes on and on and on.   “Now, the international rule of law is being progressively dismantled,” he added. “Either the world ashamedly fails those who so desperately need help, or we stand united and put a stop to this.   “To all the world’s leaders, I remind you of your responsibility to ensure respect for international humanitarian law as set out in the Geneva Conventions. These are universally accepted and binding norms developed to preserve the very bare minimum of humanity. I implore you to put the protection of civilians and human rights first, and not to abandon that minimum of humanity.”   http://news.un.org/en/story/2024/10/1156181 http://www.unicef.org/press-releases/statement-unicef-executive-director-catherine-russell-deadly-weekend-attacks-north http://www.unicef.org/press-releases/statement-unicef-deputy-executive-director-humanitarian-action-and-supply-operations http://interagencystandingcommittee.org/inter-agency-standing-committee/statement-principals-inter-agency-standing-committee-stop-assault-palestinians-gaza-and-those-trying http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/countries-in-focus-archive/issue-114/en/   27 Oct. 2024 (Port Sudan, 26 October 2024)   The United Nations Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Sudan, Ms. Clementine Nkweta-Salami, is deeply alarmed by reports of escalating armed violence in Aj Jazirah State, which has reportedly claimed the lives of scores of civilians.   Preliminary reports between 20 and 25 October indicate that the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) launched a major attack across eastern Aj Jazirah. RSF fighters reportedly shot at civilians indiscriminately, perpetrated acts of sexual violence against women and girls, committed widespread looting of markets and homes and burned down farms.   Residents from several villages, including Safita Ghanoubab, AlHilaliya, and Al-Aziba, were reportedly subjected to physical assaults, humiliation, and threats resulting in scores of civilians fleeing their homes for safety. Those who remain face severe threats.   “I am shocked and deeply appalled that human rights violations of the kind witnessed in Darfur last year – such as rape, targeted attacks, sexual violence, and mass killings – are being repeated in Aj Jazirah State. These are atrocious crimes,” said Nkweta-Salami. “Women, children, and the most vulnerable are bearing the brunt of a conflict that has already taken far too many lives.”   Thousands of families have fled their homes to several areas within Aj Jazirah State. Humanitarian partners are mobilizing to assist people displaced by the escalation of hostilities.   “Attacking civilians, civilian objects, and public infrastructure is prohibited by International Humanitarian Law. It is unacceptable and must stop immediately. Civilians must be protected wherever they are,” said Nkweta-Salami.   The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) is gravely concerned by the impact that ongoing armed conflict is having on civilians in many parts of Sudan.   Fighting continues to rage in the states of North Darfur, West Darfur, Khartoum, North Kordofan and Aj Jazirah, despite repeated calls for the parties to de-escalate, ensure the protection of civilians and facilitate humanitarian access.   In North Darfur alone, the International Organization for Migration reports that in just six months, between 1 April and 9 October, some 410,000 people have been displaced in the locality of Al Fasher. Many of them had already been displaced at least once before over the course of this conflict.   OCHA continues to receive reports of civilian casualties and indiscriminate attacks impacting public infrastructure and residential areas – both in North Darfur and elsewhere – with many areas effectively cut off from humanitarian assistance.   Once again, OCHA calls on the parties to stop the fighting and allow humanitarian organizations to reach people in need of life-saving assistance wherever they are.   http://www.unocha.org/publications/report/sudan/statement-un-resident-and-humanitarian-coordinator-sudan-clementine-nkweta-salami-attacks-aj-jazirah-state-enar http://www.unicef.org/press-releases/un-agencies-warn-spiraling-sudan-crisis-civilians-face-grave-risks-and-famine-threat   27 Oct. 2024   Ukraine: No place feels safe: Civilian and medical infrastructure hit amid rising casualties. (MSF)   On 25 October, a residential area in the eastern Ukrainian city of Dnipro came under attack. At least 21 people were injured, and five people, including a child, lost their lives.   “MSF condemns this Russian attack on a residential area, including the hospital where MSF ambulances refer patients. Our teams remain committed to providing aid in the region as long as needed,” says Thomas Marchese, MSF’s chief emergency coordinator in Ukrai   “This latest attack damaged over 20 apartment buildings. Among the impacted structures was Mechnikov Hospital in Dnipro, one of Ukraine’s largest medical facilities, which MSF has been closely working with since 2022,” Marchese continues.   This hospital serves as a lifeline for the sick and injured from frontline settlements, where access to specialised medical care is severely limited due to the ongoing hostilities.   Critically wounded patients are brought here by ambulance, and displaced families from war hotspots such as Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, Kurakhove also come here for care. Many patients requiring urgent, complex treatment are transported to Dnipro, with MSF ambulance teams actively supporting transfers between hospitals.   MSF teams report an alarming escalation in hostilities in Ukraine, with civilian areas increasingly coming under fire. MSF team has witnessed the attacks on Selydove, Kherson and the Okhmatdyt Children’s hospital.   People do not feel safe, even in hospital wards, often woken by sirens warning of imminent attacks. The number of Ukrainians experiencing severe traumatic stress from living amid constant destruction grows by the hour. Treatment is nearly impossible, as there is rarely a safe space where patients can receive stable care.   OCHA says that attacks across Ukraine continue to kill and injure civilians and damage their homes. Local authorities say attacks in eastern and southern Ukraine today caused 45 civilian casualties, including children and medical workers. Scores of homes were also damaged in the Donetsk, Kherson, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia and Sumy regions.   In Sumy City, overnight attacks killed three civilians – including a 14-year-old girl – and injured one person, according to local authorities and aid workers. Residential buildings were also damaged. Meanwhile in the Kharkiv Region, intense hostilities have displaced nearly 1,000 civilians from Kupiansk over the last four days.   http://www.msf.org/no-place-feels-safe-medical-infrastructure-hit-amid-rising-casualties   25 Oct. 2024   Mozambique: Intensifying crisis forces suspension of aid as millions affected. (NRC)   “The Norwegian Refugee Council is gravely concerned about the intensifying crisis in Mozambique, which comes on top of an already catastrophic humanitarian situation. Across the country, people are struggling to survive amid multiple, compounding crises: conflict, severe hunger, and climate shocks are affecting millions. In the north alone, over one million people are already devastated by conflict. Some 700,000 people face acute hunger across the country, and hundreds of thousands are impacted by annual climate shocks.   “The violent escalation has forced NRC to suspend much of our life-saving aid operations as field movements remain too dangerous. If this continues, thousands of displaced families will lose access to critical aid. The disruptions to daily life and essential services are pushing the most vulnerable into greater insecurity, with severely limited options for safety and support.   “We urge all parties to uphold civilians’ safety and security and to ensure safe, unrestricted access for humanitarian organisations to reach people in need. For NRC and other aid agencies, maintaining humanitarian space is paramount for reaching affected communities effectively and impartially.   http://www.nrc.no/news/2024/october/mozambique-intensifying-crisis-forces-suspension-of-aid-as-millions-affected/   25 Oct. 2024   Rampant gang violence and food insecurity continue to plunge Haiti “into a spiralling crisis”, reports World Food Programme (WFP).   Waanja Kaaria, WFP Representative and Country Director in Haiti, highlighted the latest UN-backed Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis which shows that some 5.4 million people in Haiti, roughly half the population, are suffering from acute hunger.   Armed gangs have been terrorizing Haiti for several years now, especially the capital, Port-au-Prince, forcing people to flee their homes.   Ms. Kaaria reported that a recent increase in attacks has uprooted tens of thousands more people. Numbers have doubled in the last three months, bringing total displacement to over 700,000.   15 Oct. 2024   Urgent humanitarian response needed amidst escalating conflict in Lebanon – UNICEF Deputy Executive Director Ted Chaiban and WFP Deputy Executive Director Carl Skau.   “During a three-day visit to Lebanon, we witnessed the devastation and sensed people’s fear and confusion. For them, the future remains uncertain as long as their country is under fire. The war that the world wanted to avoid in Lebanon is now happening and has already triggered a catastrophe.   “Families are living in perilous circumstances. And as the conflict worsens. Almost every child in Lebanon has been impacted in some way. Many have been victims of bombardments, losing loved ones, their homes, access to education and are facing an uncertain future in possibly deeper poverty. “Around 1.2 million people have been affected, with a significant impact on vulnerable communities".   “International humanitarian law must be respected. All parties must prioritize the protection of civilians and civilian infrastructure. This includes protecting schools, hospitals, water systems, and ensuring safe passage for civilians fleeing conflict zones. No child should face the indiscriminate use of explosive weapons in populated areas. And all those trying to reach them with life-saving assistance should also be protected".   http://www.unicef.org/press-releases/urgent-humanitarian-response-needed-amidst-escalating-conflict-lebanon-wfp-and http://www.unicef.org/stories/loss-and-uncertainty-lebanons-children   17 Oct. 2024   Human rights' are particularly crucial in the fog of war, Volker Turk - United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights tells journalists in New York:   We are in a particularly dangerous period in history, in particular when disregard, disrespect for international humanitarian and international human rights law is reaching a deafening crescendo.   Respect for human rights, the rule of law, accountability – these are matters of international peace and security.Human rights bring a focus on facts, on the law and on compassion – it is a focus that is particularly crucial in the fog of war.   This has been painfully stark in the Middle East over the past year.   Today’s findings by the IPC – which is the recognized authority on food security – show that the number of people at catastrophic levels of hunger is expected to double in the coming months, and the risk of famine persists across the whole of Gaza. The world cannot let this happen.   I have previously warned that starvation of civilians as a method of warfare is prohibited under international humanitarian law. It constitutes a war crime. As the occupying power, Israel has the specific obligations under IHL to bring into Gaza the necessary foodstuffs, medical supplies and other articles, and to facilitate humanitarian relief by all means at its disposal.   Unfortunately, the reality on the ground is that there is only a trickle of aid getting into Gaza. There are reports that Israeli forces are preventing humanitarian aid from accessing the north, exacerbating the already desperate humanitarian and medical needs.   Israel’s evacuation orders appear designed to cut off North Gaza completely from the rest of the territory, as bombing and other attacks continue. There are serious concerns about a large-scale forcible transfer of civilians, not meeting the requirements of international law for evacuation on imperative military grounds.   I call on Israel immediately to facilitate the massive influx of humanitarian aid that is needed across all parts of Gaza.   Meanwhile, Palestinian armed groups continue to hold hostages – now for over a year, in flagrant violation of international law. They must be immediately and unconditionally released.   Moving to Lebanon: months of exchanges of missiles between Hezbollah and Israeli forces along the Israel-Lebanon border have escalated into spiralling violence of much greater scale, and even greater danger, with Israeli troops now present in Lebanon.   Attacks against UN peacekeepers are in breach of international law – and may also constitute war crimes.   In Lebanon, Israel’s daily strikes on residential buildings in urban areas are taking an appalling toll on civilian lives, with significant numbers of casualties, destruction and displacement. Hezbollah also continues to fire rockets into Israel, where many thousands are displaced from their homes.   The risk of a full-fledged regional conflict remains very high – one that could engulf the lives and the human rights of millions of people. This illogic - and I call it illogic - of escalation must end.   A ceasefire, an end to the occupation and a return to the negotiating table – only these can advance the rights of Palestinians, Israelis, people in Lebanon, across the region and beyond to live in peace and security.   Wars and extreme violence devastate people’s lives and leave legacies of trauma, loss and grievance for generations to come.   In Ukraine, nearly 1,000 days since Russia’s full-scale invasion, we continue to see terrible devastation, characterised by recurring human rights violations and war crimes. July 2024 was the deadliest month for civilians in Ukraine since October 2022, as we documented through the work of my Office on the ground – and, with the ongoing attacks on crucial energy infrastructure, I fear for Ukrainians this coming winter.   In Sudan, the warring parties, affiliated groups and regional actors continue to compete for influence and power, forcing a staggering 10 million people to flee their homes, and leaving more than 25 million people facing acute hunger. The situation is desperate, and there is evidence of the commission of war crimes and other atrocity crimes. I urge States to cease military and financial support for the warring parties, and to continue mediation efforts towards an immediate cessation of hostilities.   In Haiti, my Office has documented that more than 3,950 people have been killed as a result of gang violence so far this year, with another 1,834 injured and 1,150 kidnapped.   In Myanmar, air and artillery strikes on civilians, mass arrests and reports of extrajudicial killings in blatant breach of human rights and humanitarian law continue unabated, amidst stifling impunity.   Nobody has been made safer by this violence, waged by men in power. Every week, it seems, red lines are crossed, lives are destroyed, the environment damaged, extremism is fuelled, and cycles of destruction, impunity, injustice and pain continue.   War can only truly end when respect for human rights re-establishes reason, justice and compassion. When my Office rings warning bells – as we have, over many years, for all the situations I referred to above, the international community needs to listen and act to avert catastrophe.   http://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2024/10/turk-says-world-must-act-darkest-moment-gaza-conflict-unfolds http://reliefweb.int/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/open-call-ceasefire-gaza-lebanon-and-israel-and-end-impunity-amid-spiralling-humanitarian-catastrophe-and-escalating-regional-conflict http://www.ohchr.org/en/statements-and-speeches/2024/10/human-rights-focus-on-fact-law-compassion-crucial-in-fog-of-war-hc http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/en/ Visit the related web page
	Continuing with current climate policies will lead to 3.1°C of calamitous global warming by WMO, UN Environment Programme, agencies   Feb. 2025   The world has just experienced the hottest January ever recorded, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said, citing data crunched by UN partner the Copernicus Climate Service.   Last month was 1.75 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level and 0.79°C above the 1991-2020 average, despite expectations that the La Nina weather phenomenon might bring cooler temperatures.   In 2015, the international community agreed to try to limit average global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.   The January data was “surprising” even to climate change experts at Copernicus, the European climate change service, which noted that it was the 18th month in the last 19 where the global-average surface air temperature was more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level.   “January 2025 is another surprising month, continuing the record temperatures observed throughout the last two years, despite the development of La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific and their temporary cooling effect on global temperatures,” said Samantha Burgess, Copernicus Strategic Lead for Climate.   Global temperature rise is primarily attributed to humans burning fossil fuels which have led to record concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Other factors are also key, including deforestation.   10 Jan. 2025   The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has confirmed that 2024 is the warmest year on record, based on six international datasets. The past ten years have all been in the Top Ten, in an extraordinary streak of record-breaking temperatures.   “Today’s assessment from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) proves yet again – global heating is a cold, hard fact,” said UN Secretary-General Antóno Guterres.   “Individual years pushing past the 1.5 degree limit do not mean the long-term goal is shot. It means we need to fight even harder to get on track. Blazing temperatures in 2024 require trail-blazing climate action in 2025,” he said. “There's still time to avoid the worst of climate catastrophe. But leaders must act – now,” he said.   “Climate history is playing out before our eyes. We’ve had not just one or two record-breaking years, but a full ten-year series. This has been accompanied by devastating and extreme weather, rising sea levels and melting ice, all powered by record-breaking greenhouse gas levels due to human activities,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.   "It is essential to recognize that every fraction of a degree of warming matters. Every additional increment of global warming increases the impacts on our lives, economies and our planet,” said Celeste Saulo.   http://wmo.int/news/media-centre/wmo-report-documents-spiralling-weather-and-climate-impacts http://news.un.org/en/story/2025/02/1159846 http://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-january-2025-was-warmest-record-globally-despite-emerging-la-nina http://wmo.int/news/media-centre/wmo-confirms-2024-warmest-year-record-about-155degc-above-pre-industrial-level http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2025/2024-record-breaking-watershed-year-for-global-climate http://wmo.int/media/news/climate-change-impacts-grip-globe-2024 http://wmo.int/media/news/record-carbon-emissions-highlight-urgency-of-global-greenhouse-gas-watch http://www.worldweatherattribution.org/when-risks-become-reality-extreme-weather-in-2024 http://reliefweb.int/report/world/counting-cost-2024-year-climate-breakdown   Oct. 2024   Greenhouse gases surged to new highs in 2023. (WMO)   Greenhouse gas levels surged to a new record in 2023, committing the planet to rising temperatures for many years to come, according to a report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Carbon dioxide (CO2) is accumulating in the atmosphere faster than any time experienced during human existence, rising by more than 10% in just two decades.   In the course of 2023, large vegetation fire CO2 emissions and a possible reduction in carbon absorption by forests combined with stubbornly high fossil fuel CO2 emissions from human and industrial activities to drive the increase, according to the WMO’s annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin.   The globally-averaged surface concentration of CO2 reached 420.0 parts per million (ppm), methane 1 934 parts per billion and nitrous oxide 336.9 parts per billion (ppb) in 2023. These values are 151%, 265% and 125% of pre-industrial (before 1750) levels, it said. These are calculated on the basis of the long-term observations within the Global Atmosphere Watch network of monitoring stations.   “Another year. Another record. This should set alarm bells ringing among decision makers. We are clearly off track to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C and aiming for 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. These are more than just statistics. Every part per million and every fraction of a degree temperature increase has a real impact on our lives and our planet,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.   “The Bulletin warns that we face a potential vicious cycle. Natural climate variability plays a big role in carbon cycle. But in the near future, climate change itself could cause ecosystems to become larger sources of greenhouse gases. Wildfires could release more carbon emissions into the atmosphere, whilst the warmer ocean might absorb less CO2. Consequently, more CO2 could stay in the atmosphere to accelerate global warming. These climate feedbacks are critical concerns to human society,” said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.   From 1990 to 2023, radiative forcing – the warming effect on our climate - by long-lived greenhouse gases increased by 51.5%, with CO2 accounting for about 81% of this increase, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Annual Greenhouse Gas Index cited in the WMO Bulletin.   As long as emissions continue, greenhouse gases will continue accumulating in the atmosphere leading to global temperature rise. Given the extremely long life of CO2 in the atmosphere, the temperature level already observed will persist for several decades even if emissions are rapidly reduced to net zero.   The last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration of CO2 was 3-5 million years ago, when the temperature was 2-3°C warmer and sea level was 10-20 meters higher than now..   Oct. 2024   UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell on the release of the 2024 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) Synthesis Report. The report assesses the combined impact of nations’ current national climate plans (NDCs) on expected global emissions in 2030, among other measures:   "Today’s NDC Synthesis Report must be a turning point, ending the era of inadequacy and sparking a new age of acceleration, with much bolder new national climate plans from every country due next year.   The report’s findings are stark but not surprising – current national climate plans fall miles short of what’s needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy, and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country.   By contrast, much bolder new national climate plans can not only avert climate chaos – done well, they can be transformational for people and prosperity in every nation.   Bolder new climate plans are vital to drive stronger investment, economic growth and opportunity, more jobs, less pollution, better health and lower costs, more secure and affordable clean energy, among many others benefits.   As expected, with countries currently working to put together new NDCs due next year, this year’s report shows only fractional progress compared to what is expected – and urgently needed – next year.   Current plans combined – if fully implemented – would see emissions of 51.5 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2030 - a level only 2.6 per cent lower than in 2019. Greenhouse gas pollution at these levels will guarantee a human and economic trainwreck for every country, without exception.   The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change notes that greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut 43% by 2030, compared to 2019 levels. By 2035, net global greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut by 60% compared to 2019 levels. This is critical to limiting global heating to 1.5°C this century to avert the worst climate impacts. Every fraction of a degree matters, as climate disasters get rapidly worse"..   Oct. 2024   Continuing with current climate policies will lead to 3.1°C of calamitous global warming. (UNEP)   Nations must collectively commit to cutting 42 per cent off annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 57 per cent by 2035 in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – and back this up with rapid action – or the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal will be gone within a few years, according to a new UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report.   Updated NDCs are to be submitted early next year ahead of the COP30 climate talks in Brazil. UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please! finds that a failure to increase ambition in these new NDCs and start delivering immediately would put the world on course for a temperature increase of 2.6-3.1°C over the course of this century. This would bring debilitating impacts to people, planet and economies.   The 2.6°C scenario is based on the full implementation of current unconditional and conditional NDCs. Implementing only current unconditional NDCs would lead to 2.8°C of warming.   Continuing with current policies only would lead to 3.1°C of warming. Under these scenarios – which all operate on a probability of over 66 per cent – temperatures would continue to rise into the next century.   Adding additional net-zero pledges to full implementation of unconditional and conditional NDCs could limit global warming to 1.9°C, but there is currently low confidence in the implementation of these net-zero pledges.   “The emissions gap is not an abstract notion,” said António Guterres, UN Secretary-General, in a video message on the report. “There is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters.   Around the world, people are paying a terrible price. Record emissions mean record sea temperatures supercharging monster hurricanes; record heat is turning forests into tinder boxes and cities into saunas; record rains are resulting in biblical floods.   “Today’s Emissions Gap report is clear: we’re playing with fire; but there can be no more playing for time. We’re out of time. Closing the emissions gap means closing the ambition gap, the implementation gap, and the finance gap. Starting at COP29.”   The report also looks at what it would take to get on track to limiting global warming to below 2°C. For this pathway, emissions must fall 28 per cent by 2030 and 37 per cent from 2019 levels by 2035 – the new milestone year to be included in the next NDCs.   “Climate crunch time is here. We need global mobilization on a scale and pace never seen before – starting right now, before the next round of climate pledges – or the 1.5°C goal will soon be dead and well below 2°C will take its place in the intensive care unit,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP.   “I urge every nation: no more hot air, please. Use the upcoming COP29 talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, to increase action now, set the stage for stronger NDCs, and then go all-out to get on a 1.5°C pathway.   “Even if the world overshoots 1.5°C – and the chances of this happening are increasing every day – we must keep striving for a net-zero, sustainable and prosperous world. Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved and the ability to rapidly bring down any temperature overshoot.”   The consequences of delayed action are also highlighted by the report. The cuts required are relative to 2019 levels, but greenhouse gas emissions have since grown to a record high of 57.1 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2023. While this makes a marginal difference to the overall cuts required from 2019-2030, the delay in action means that 7.5 per cent must be shaved off emissions every year until 2035 for 1.5°C, and 4 per cent for 2°C. The size of the annual cuts required will increase with every year’s delay.   1.5°C still technically possible, but massive effort needed   The report shows that there is technical potential for emissions cuts in 2030 up to 31 gigatons of CO2 equivalent – which is around 52 per cent of emissions in 2023 – and 41 gigatons in 2035. This would bridge the gap to 1.5°C in both years, at a cost below US$200 per ton of CO2 equivalent.   Increased deployment of solar photovoltaic technologies and wind energy could deliver 27 per cent of the total reduction potential in 2030 and 38 per cent in 2035. Action on forests could deliver around 20 per cent of the potential in both years. Other strong options include efficiency measures, electrification and fuel switching in the buildings, transport and industry sectors.   This potential illustrates it is possible to meet the COP28 targets of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030, doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, transitioning away from fossil fuels, and conserving, protecting and restoring nature and ecosystems.   However, delivering on even some of this potential will require unprecedented international mobilization and a whole-of-government approach, focusing on measures that maximize socioeconomic and environmental co-benefits and minimize trade-offs..   http://unfccc.int/news/new-un-climate-change-report-shows-national-climate-plans-fall-miles-short-of-what-s-needed http://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2024-virtually-certain-be-warmest-year-and-first-year-above-15degc http://wmo.int/news/media-centre/greenhouse-gas-concentrations-surge-again-new-record-2023 http://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/nations-must-close-huge-emissions-gap-new-climate-pledges-and http://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2024 http://www.carbonbrief.org/unep-new-climate-pledges-need-quantum-leap-in-ambition-to-deliver-paris-goals/ http://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/huge-uplift-needed-climate-adaptation-starting-finance-commitment http://insideclimatenews.org/news/28102024/cop29-climate-reports-greenhouse-gas-emiss   http://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statement/2024-11-12/secretary-generals-remarks-world-leaders-climate-action-summit-cop29-delivered http://interagencystandingcommittee.org/deputies-group/iasc-top-line-messaging-climate-crisis-cop29 http://climatenetwork.org/resource/cop29-annual-policy-document-achieving-fair-climate-finance-to-deliver-resilience-ambition-and-a-just-transition/ http://www.hrw.org/news/2024/11/07/cop29-climate-action-crucial-protect-rights http://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/11/cop29-leaders-must-commit-fair-climate-financing-phasing-out-fossil-fuels/ http://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/11/africa-richer-countries-must-commit-to-pay-at-cop29-as-climate-change-forcibly-displaces-millions-across-africa http://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/25-of-35-planetary-vital-signs-at-record-extremes-2024-state-of-the-climate-report   Oct. 2024   Health threats of climate change reach record-breaking levels, reports University College London (UCL) in the latest Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change.   The 2024 Report of the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change reveals that people in every country face record-breaking threats to health and survival from the rapidly changing climate, with 10 of 15 indicators tracking health threats reaching concerning new levels.   Publishing annually in The Lancet, with strategic and financial support from the Wellcome Trust, The Lancet Countdown is hosted by UCL and works with almost 300 leading researchers from around the world to track and understand the evolving links between climate change and people’s health.   Executive Director of the Lancet Countdown, Dr Marina Romanello said: “This year’s stocktake of the imminent health threats of climate inaction reveals the most concerning findings yet in our eight years of monitoring.   “Once again, last year broke climate change records – with extreme heat waves, deadly weather events, and devastating wildfires affecting people around the world.   “No individual or economy on the planet is immune from the health threats of climate change. The relentless expansion of fossil fuels and record-breaking greenhouse gas emissions compounds these dangerous health impacts and is threatening to reverse the limited progress made so far and put a healthy future further out of reach.”   As a result, experts are calling for trillions of dollars spent on fossil fuels to be redirected towards protecting people’s health, lives and livelihoods.   Dr Romanello said: “Despite this threat, we see financial resources continue to be invested in the very things that undermine our health.   “Repurposing the trillions of dollars being invested in, or subsidising, the fossil fuel industry every year would provide the opportunity to deliver a fair, equitable transition to clean energy and energy efficiency, and a healthier future, ultimately benefiting the global economy.”   Key findings from the report include:   In 2023, people were exposed to, on average, an unprecedented 50 more days of health-threatening temperatures than expected without climate change. Extreme drought affected 48% of the global land area – the second highest level recorded – and the higher frequency of heatwaves and droughts was associated with 151 million more people experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity than annually between 1981 and 2010.   Governments and companies are “fuelling the fire” with persistent investment in fossil fuels, all-time high energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, and years of delays in adaptation that are narrowing the survival chances of people across the globe.   The financial resources to deliver net zero and secure a healthy future are available. Yet governments and companies are spending trillions of dollars on fossil fuel subsidies and investments that are making climate change worse – money that could be redirected towards clean renewable energy and activities that benefits people’s health, livelihood and wellbeing.   Amidst these concerning findings, the report highlights new opportunities to put health at the centre of the world’s response to climate change, including at the upcoming ‘finance COP’ in Azerbaijan. The Lancet Countdown report contributes to the evidence needed to inform the negotiations and deliver truly health-protecting climate change action.   Co-Chair of the Lancet Countdown Professor Anthony Costello said: “Progress towards an equitable and healthy future requires a global transformation of financial systems, shifting resources away from the fossil-fuel based economy towards a zero-emissions future.   “For successful reform, people’s health must be put front and centre of climate change policy to ensure the funding mechanisms protect wellbeing, reduce health inequities and maximise health gains, especially for the countries and communities that need it most.”   The report notes that the engagement of individuals, corporations, scientists, and international organisations with climate change and health is growing, raising hopes that a healthy, prosperous future could still be within reach.   Responding to the report publication, UN Secretary-General, António Guterres said: “Record-high emissions are posing record-breaking threats to our health. We must cure the sickness of climate inaction – by slashing emissions, protecting people from climate extremes, and ending our fossil fuel addiction – to create a fairer, safer, and healthier future for all.”   http://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2024/oct/health-threats-climate-change-reach-record-breaking-levels http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)01822-1/ http://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/biae087/7808595 http://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/25-of-35-planetary-vital-signs-at-record-extremes-2024-state-of-the-climate-report
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