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	Humanitarian Outlook 2026: A world succumbing to war by International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC)   June 2026   The humanitarian consequences of disregard for the rules of war are both devastating and accelerating. - Elyse Mosquini, ICRC Permanent Observer to the UN.   "Respect for international humanitarian law and the protection of civilians are under unprecedented strain. Last month, the President of the ICRC told the Security Council: “Wars fought without rules transform wars between combatants into wars against civilians.”   This is not an abstraction. It is a daily reality we witness in our operations. The operational and humanitarian consequences of disregard for the rules of war are both devastating and accelerating.   Three dimensions exemplify this:   When IHL is disregarded, civilians bear unacceptable consequences. We see rising civilian casualties, attacks on healthcare, the weaponization of food and water, and the destruction of essential services. Civilian harm is not only the immediate consequences of individual attacks; it is also the cumulative impact of such attacks on essential infrastructure which aggregate overtime and create systemic crises.   When water and health systems collapse, when energy grids fail, when connectivity is disrupted or shut down, populations of entire cities can be pushed to the limits of survival. People are not only killed by weapons – they are killed by the dismantling of essential service systems that sustain their lives.   This dangerous slide is propelled by an insidious normalization of violence and dehumanizing narratives. Wars fought without limits, narratives that portray the enemy as sub-human or seek to justify deliberate destruction, threaten the moral foundations of our humanity.   When IHL is disregarded, humanitarian space collapses. Humanitarian organizations face growing access restrictions, insecurity, disinformation campaigns, and bureaucratic impediments. Neutral, impartial, independent humanitarian action is being obstructed – and the consequences are deadly.   The conditions for some humanitarian colleagues have become excruciating, including colleagues threatened, detained or held hostage. Thirty-one Red Cross and Red Crescent staff and volunteers were killed in 2025; and in April of this year the UN reported that in the last three years 1010 humanitarian personnel were killed while performing life-saving work.   Attacks on humanitarian personnel call into question the protections that IHL was designed to provide – to humanitarian personnel, and to the civilian population. Some attacks spark public outrage. Others pass unnoticed. But every attack represents a failure of humanity.   These patterns are amplified and accelerated by technology. For all its benefits, technology is also reshaping the battlefield with important policy and legal implications.   To cite just three examples:   The prolonged presence of drones over homes, schools, farms, and hospitals creates constant fear and restricts people’s movement – even during pauses in hostilities. Drone countermeasures and failed or fallen drones also increase the risks for civilians – including long-term risks generated by the presence of explosive remnants of war.   Cyber operations – whether deliberately or by mistake – may have dramatic effects on civilian. As malware can spread instantly around the globe, it has the potential to affect critical civilian infrastructure and essential services such as health and water systems, and to impede logistics systems, including those of vital humanitarian operations.   Artificial intelligence and machine learning for decision-making enable widespread collection and analysis of data sources. They may identify people or objects, assess patterns of life or behaviour, make recommendations for military strategy or operations, or make predictions about future actions or situations.   They accelerate decision‑making, sometimes reducing the time available to meaningfully verify targets or assess proportionality. Distance between human operators and the impacts of their decisions grows both physically and conceptually.   To translate commitments to practice, technological evolution must be matched by concrete safeguards that preserve human judgment, human control, and human dignity.   The consequences of disregarding IHL are devastating, for its victims and for our humanity. we urge all States to act to uphold humanity in war."   http://www.icrc.org/en/statement/2026-ECOSOC-HAS-Panel-2-remarks http://www.icrc.org/en/statement/icrc-ifrc-world-red-cross-red-crescent-day-call-uphold-protections-civilians-medical-personnel-humanitarian-workers-communities-depend-on http://www.icrc.org/en/statement/renewed-call-un-secretary-general-and-icrc-president-adopt-rules-autonomous-weapons http://www.unognewsroom.org/story/en/3235/autonomous-weapon-controls http://www.icrc.org/en/article/faq-artificial-intelligence-in-military-domain http://www.icrc.org/en/article/advocacy-paper-key-opportunity-prevent-development-unacceptable-autonomous-weapons http://www.icrc.org/en/article/icrc-brings-humanitarian-perspectives-unmanned-systems-world-peace-forum http://www.icrc.org/en/statement/icrc-vice-president-arms-trade-treaty-must-be-translated-action http://www.unognewsroom.org/story/en/3236/unidir-press-conference-launch-of-the-2026-arms-trade-treaty-monitor-report-25-august-2026 http://attmonitor.org/en/the-2026-report/ http://www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/publications/the-democratisation-and-diversification-of-war-reflections-on-the-effects-of-technological-change-and-normative-retrenchment-on-the-character-of-contemporary-war/   Dec. 2025   Statement by Elyse Mosquini, Permanent Observer to the United Nations of the International Committee of the Red Cross, at the 60th plenary meeting on strengthening of the coordination of humanitarian and disaster relief assistance of the United Nations:   "The number of armed conflicts being fought around the world has more than doubled in the last 15 years, to around 130 today.   All too often, we see the rules of war violated – direct attacks against civilians, children recruited to fight, civilian infrastructure targeted, patients in hospitals slaughtered.   We see sexual violence and starvation used as weapons of war, indiscriminate bombardments of urban centers, killing and maiming. Brutal violations are committed in plain sight, signaling that the unacceptable risks to become normalized.   The human toll is staggering. Civilian casualties in armed conflict are reported to have increased by 40% in 2024 from the previous year, while civilian casualties from explosive weapons of war have reached their highest level in more than a decade. In 700 hospitals supported by the International Committee of the Red Cross, surgical admissions for weapon wounds have increased by almost 50% in 2024.   Conflict is not only becoming more widespread, entrenched, and brutal – but also more deadly for civilians.   Principled humanitarian action, which should bring relief to this suffering, is under increasing pressure. The lines between humanitarian, military, and political agendas are blurring, and “with us or against us” narratives are eroding space for neutrality.   2024 was the deadliest year on record for humanitarian personnel, and this trend continues in 2025.   The consequences are catastrophic: when aid cannot reach those in need, civilians face starvation, disease, and preventable death.   All states have an obligation under the Geneva Conventions to respect and ensure respect for international humanitarian law, including to facilitate access for impartial humanitarian action.   What is tolerated today will define how wars are fought tomorrow. The International Committee of the Red Cross urges all states to act to prevent destruction and brutality from becoming our new normal".   Humanitarian Outlook 2026: A world succumbing to war   Armed conflict is now a defining feature of our time. Across continents, the rules and limits that should protect civilians in war are being stretched, ignored or dismantled.   Conflicts are spreading, lasting longer, and becoming more complex. Civilians – the very people international humanitarian law exists to protect – are those who suffer the most.   Even for those who experience war only through the headlines, today’s conflicts are shaping a future that will affect every one of us. The erosion of the rules of war is not confined to distant battlefields; it threatens the stability, security and values that underpin our societies and our lives, no matter where in the world we live.   The Humanitarian Outlook 2026 is the ICRC’s publication accompanying our 2026 global appeals. It provides a forward-looking analysis of emerging humanitarian risks, based on real-world observations from our organization’s operations worldwide.   The Outlook is designed to inform governments, donors and decision-makers about the evolving nature of armed conflict, the humanitarian consequences for civilians, and the priorities required to respond effectively and prevent further suffering.   In Humanitarian Outlook 2026, we draw on our work in more than 100 armed conflicts to warn of four converging trends pushing the world toward deeper instability and human suffering.   The Outlook highlights a stark paradox: as needs rise rapidly, the resources available for principled humanitarian action are under growing strain.The number of armed conflicts continues to climb, reaching around 130 in 2024 - more than double the number just 15 years ago. Over 20 conflicts have lasted for more than two decades, leaving entire generations who have known nothing but war.   Front lines today stretch across physical and digital worlds. The use of drones, artificial intelligence and cyber operations is accelerating and transforming the conduct of hostilities, too often with devastating effects on civilians.   More than 204 million people now live in areas under the full or contested control of armed groups – beyond the reach of state institutions and basic services.   The consequences are severe:   Homes, hospitals, schools and water systems are destroyed. Livelihoods collapse, displacing millions. Families are torn apart: 284,000 people are registered as missing by the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement – a 70% increase in just one year.   Trend 1: Dehumanization spreading on all fronts   Across many conflicts, the shared sense of humanity that restrains violence is eroding. Dehumanizing language - often echoed by political leaders or amplified through social media - fuels fear, polarizes communities, and justifies violations.   This shift has real consequences. When people are stripped of their dignity through words or policy, the threshold for violence rises. Civilians are misidentified as threats; detainees are denied legal protections; humanitarian workers face suspicion or hostility.   Trend 2: Principled humanitarian action under threat   Humanitarian and medical workers are increasingly targeted, despite protections under international law.   In 2024 alone: 338 attacks against humanitarian workers were recorded. Over 600 attacks struck health facilities and personnel between 2023 and 2024. 25 Red Cross and Red Crescent volunteers and staff lost their lives in 2025.   Neutral, impartial humanitarian action is being politicized, manipulated or obstructed. Access to people in need remains critically restricted in places such as Gaza and Al-Fashir, leaving civilians without essential assistance.   Trend 3: Victory at any cost, and global responsibility in retreat   Respect for international humanitarian law (IHL) is weakening. In many conflicts, military objectives take precedence over the obligation to protect civilian lives.   Hard power is resurging, and multilateral cooperation is at risk. Global defence spending reached 2.7 trillion USD in 2024, while the entire humanitarian system appealed for just 50 billion USD – an amount that still went unmet. This imbalance signals a world preparing for war, not peace.   Trend 4: Humanitarian needs rising, resources strained   At a time when needs are escalating, funding for neutral, impartial humanitarian action is increasingly uncertain. Without sustained support, millions of people risk losing access to essential services, protection, and life-saving assistance.   This widening gap is fundamentally at odds with the scale of human suffering seen across today’s conflicts.   Five calls to action in defense of humanity   States have a decisive role to play in preventing the world from sliding further into unrestrained warfare. The ICRC urges governments to act now:   1. Sustain principled humanitarian action   Provide predictable support for neutral, impartial and independent humanitarian assistance so aid can keep pace with rising needs.   2. Uphold international humanitarian law – and urge allies to do the same   Respect for IHL must remain universal. States must prevent violations, both in their own conduct and among those they support.   3. Counter dehumanization   Reject harmful narratives, misinformation and rhetoric that deepen suffering and normalize brutality.   4. Protect humanitarian workers and medical personnel   Attacks on aid workers are attacks on humanity. States must ensure they can work safely and reach people in need.   5. Work for peace and restore global solidarity   Humanitarian action can alleviate suffering, but only political solutions can end it. States must invest in diplomacy, conflict prevention and humanitarian restraint.   The choice before us   As wars multiply and the cost of destruction exceeds what any society can rebuild, the world cannot afford indifference. Upholding the rules of war is not only a legal obligation - it is a safeguard for our shared humanity.   Together, we can choose restraint over escalation, dignity over dehumanization, and humanity over unbounded violence.   http://www.icrc.org/en/article/humanitarian-outlook-2026 http://www.icrc.org/en/publication/icrc-humanitarian-outlook-2026-world-succumbing-war   204 million people live in areas controlled or contested by armed groups   An estimated 204 million people worldwide now live in areas controlled or contested by armed groups – 30 million more than in 2021 – according to new findings released by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC).   Of these, 74 million live under the full control of armed groups, while 130 million live in areas contested by armed groups.   The ICRC’s 2025 mapping identifies 383 armed groups of humanitarian concern across more than 60 countries. Over one-third are parties to armed conflict and therefore bound by international humanitarian law (IHL). The ICRC maintains contact with around three-quarters of these groups to negotiate access, deliver assistance and promote respect for civilians.   “These figures confirm what we have been observing for several years now: most armed groups are not temporary actors but deeply entrenched in the territories where they operate,” said Matthew Bamber-Zryd, ICRC adviser on armed groups.   “A growing number are parties to armed conflict and therefore bound by IHL, and many remain willing to engage with the ICRC on humanitarian issues. But insecurity, counter-terrorism restrictions and limited resources increasingly stand in the way of sustained dialogue. Recognizing these realities – who controls what, for how long, and the constraints under which we engage – is essential if we are to reach people living in the areas most affected by violence.”   Field research conducted in Cameroon, Iraq and the Philippines between 2024 and 2025 highlights how life in contested areas means constantly negotiating risks, uncertain lines of authority and fear of reprisals. One village chief in Cameroon described their dilemma as “running away from fire, running into water” – capturing the impossible choices faced by people trying to stay safe when multiple armed actors claim control.   The collapse or disruption of essential services compounds these pressures. In many contested areas, neither state authorities nor armed groups reliably provide healthcare, education or civil documentation. Without papers, people struggle to move, access services or prove their identity – leaving them more vulnerable to abuse and exclusion.   Humanitarian organizations face major obstacles in reaching these communities, even though most armed groups are willing to engage with the ICRC. The obstacles range from insecure conditions that block access to legal and administrative restrictions imposed by states.   “In many contested areas, the collapse of basic services means people survive through their own resourcefulness and social networks,” said Arjun Claire, ICRC senior policy adviser. “Yet many get trapped in the violence, branded as collaborators by one side or the other, and exposed to brutal reprisals. States and armed groups cannot fight their wars on the backs of civilians. Contested control does not mean contested obligations – controlling territory brings responsibility to protect those living there, not a license to target them.”   The ICRC urges all parties to armed conflict to respect IHL, ensure the protection of civilians and facilitate impartial humanitarian access and engagement.   http://www.icrc.org/en/news-release/icrc-204-million-people-live-areas-controlled-or-contested-armed-groups Visit the related web page
	Conflict and violence become the leading driver of internal displacements by OHCHR, IDMC, UNHCR, agencies   July 2026   Internally displaced persons and international humanitarian law - Report of the UN Special Rapporteur on the human rights of internally displaced persons, Paula Gaviria Betancur.   In today’s armed conflicts, internally displaced persons stand at the front line of civilian suffering. In 2025, 82.2 million people were living in situations of internal displacement, including 68.6 million people displaced by conflict and other situations of violence, more than double the number recorded only seven years ago.   Such figures point to a profound gap between the protections guaranteed under international law and the reality faced by civilians on the ground, who are compelled to flee, in response to an attack, or preventively, in anticipation of abuses.   International humanitarian law and international human rights law prohibit forced displacement. Under international humanitarian law, indiscriminate attacks, collective punishment, the destruction of civilian infrastructure and the obstruction of humanitarian assistance are also prohibited.   Yet, international humanitarian law rules are too often ignored, circumvented or violated by many States. The result is repeated and protracted displacement that erodes civilian protection and resilience and undermines prospects for durable solutions and sustainable peace.   The Special Rapporteur on the human rights of internally displaced persons is seriously concerned about the erosion of respect for and compliance with international humanitarian law, alongside limited accountability for violations disproportionately affecting civilians.   Internally displaced persons depend on their own States for protection and assistance. Yet, in many contexts, authorities and non-State armed groups are perpetrators of displacement. Ensuring consistent compliance with applicable international law by all parties to conflict is therefore essential to protect populations before, during and after displacement.   Modern conflicts are increasingly fought in densely populated urban areas and involve fragmented command structures and the proliferation of non-State armed groups. Violations of the principles of distinction, proportionality and precaution place civilians and displaced populations at acute risk.   Attacks on homes, hospitals, water systems and energy networks render entire neighbourhoods uninhabitable, forcing civilians to flee and making safe return impossible.   This report examines how international humanitarian law and international human rights law apply to situations of internal displacement in armed conflict, including those reflected in the Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement. It recalls the prohibition of arbitrary displacement and obligations to protect civilians and civilian infrastructure and ensure humanitarian access and assistance.   The report highlights recurring patterns of violations that continue to harm internally displaced persons, and the heightened risks faced by women, children and older persons.   The report concludes with practical recommendations to strengthen compliance with international law, adequately protect displaced populations and those at risk of displacement and increase accountability for violations of international humanitarian law.   May 2026   Conflict and violence become the leading driver of internal displacements. (IDMC)   Conflict displacements have increased by 60% compared to 2024, driven by increasing international conflicts, persistent non-international armed conflicts and attacks on urban areas. The total number of internally displaced persons has doubled in the last decade, from 38.9 million in 2016 to 82.2 million in 2025.   Conflict and violence drove a record 32.3 million internal displacements in 2025, surpassing disaster displacements for the first time on record, according to the Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 published today by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC).   “Never have we recorded such a staggering number of displacements related to conflict,” said IDMC director Tracy Lucas. “As conflicts are intensifying, it is often the same people who are uprooted again and again. Yet the systems meant to protect them are being dismantled.”   The number of internal displacements includes each instance a person is forced to flee within the borders of their own country, often multiple times over the course of the year. Meanwhile, the number of people living in internal displacement remained near record levels, at 82.2 million, the second-highest figure ever recorded.   Emerging, escalating and entrenched conflicts forced people to move repeatedly within their countries, driving a 60 per cent increase in conflict displacements compared with 2024. As instability deepened throughout the year, Iran, with 10 million internal displacements, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, with 9.7 million, together represented two-thirds of conflict displacements..   “Internal displacement of tens of millions is a sign of a global collapse in prevention of conflict and basic protection of civilians,” said Jan Egeland, secretary general of the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC). “Countless families are returning to destroyed homes and disappearing services - or cannot return at all. From DR Congo and Sudan to Iran and Lebanon, we see millions more displaced on top of the previous record numbers driven out if their homes. We cannot continue like this.”   Internal displacement remained highly concentrated: nearly half of all conflict IDPs (31.4 million) lived in just five countries, with Sudan hosting the largest number for the third consecutive year (9.1 million), followed by Colombia (7.2 m), Syria (6 m), Yemen (4.8 m) and Afghanistan (4.4 m).   In 2025, data availability declined in several contexts due to fewer assessments and reduced coverage, limiting visibility on displacement dynamics and the situation of displaced people. “Reliable displacement data is critical for understanding where needs and risks are greatest and for ensuring that policies and resources match the scale of the challenge,” Lucas said. “With rising needs and shrinking resources, investing in national data systems and coordination remains essential.”   http://www.ohchr.org/en/documents/thematic-reports/ahrc6247-internally-displaced-persons-and-international-humanitarian-law http://www.nrc.no/news/2026/117.8-million-people-displaced-an-open-wound-on-our-shared-humanity http://www.nrc.no/latest-news http://www.internal-displacement.org/global-report/grid2026/ http://www.internal-displacement.org/ http://www.msf.org/sudanese-refugees-face-effects-humanitarian-funding-cuts-chad http://www.unhcr.org/news/press-releases/unhcr-sounds-alarm-8-3-million-risk-losing-their-lifeline http://www.unhcr.org/au/about-unhcr/who-we-protect/internally-displaced-people http://globalprotectioncluster.org/latest/publications
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