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	Future of agriculture and food security closely linked to climate change by UN Food and Agriculture Organization   Oct 2009   How to Feed the World in 2050   In the first half of this century, as the world’s population grows to around 9 billion, global demand for food, feed and fibre will nearly double while, increasingly, crops may also be used for bioenergy and other industrial purposes. New and traditional demand for agricultural produce will thus put growing pressure on already scarce agricultural resources. And while agriculture will be forced to compete for land and water with sprawling urban settlements, it will also be required to serve on other major fronts: adapting to and contributing to the mitigation of climate change, helping preserve natural habitats, protecting endangered species and maintaining a high level of biodiversity. As though this were not challenging enough, in most regions fewer people will be living in rural areas and even fewer will be farmers. They will need new technologies to grow more from less land, with fewer hands.   The problems to be resolved: Will we be able to produce enough food at affordable prices or will rising food prices drive more of the world''s population into poverty and hunger? How much spare capacity in terms of land and water do we have to feed the world in 2050? What are the new technologies that can help us use scarce resources more efficiently, increase and stabilize crop and livestock yields ?Are we investing enough in research and development for breakthroughs to be available in time? Will new technologies be available to the people who will need them most - the poor? How much do we need to invest in order to help agriculture adapt to climate change, and how much can agriculture contribute to mitigating extreme weather events?   2050: Climate change will worsen the plight of the poor. Future of agriculture and food security closely linked to climate change.   The poorest regions with the highest levels of chronic hunger are likely to be among the worst affected by climate change, according to an FAO discussion paper. Many developing countries, particularly in Africa, could become increasingly dependent on food imports.   While globally the impact of climate change on food production may be small as yet, at least until 2050, the distribution of production will have severe consequences on food security: developing countries may experience a decline of up to 21 percent in overall potential agricultural productivity as a result of global warming, the paper estimated.   The paper reported that climate change is among main challenges to agriculture in feeding the world''s population, projected to reach 9.1 billion people by 2050.   At the same time, several agriculture-based mitigation options for climate change could generate significant benefits for both food security and climate change adaptation. Increasing soil carbon sequestration through forestry and agro-forestry initiatives and tillage practices, improving efficiency of nutrient management and restoring degraded lands are examples of actions that have large mitigation potential and high co-benefits.   Climate change is expected to affect agriculture and forestry systems through higher temperatures, elevated carbon dioxide concentration, changes in rainfall, increased weeds, pests and diseases. In the short term, the frequency of extreme events such as droughts, heat waves, floods and severe storms is expected to increase.   Emissions from agriculture account for roughly 14 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Seventy-four percent of emissions from agriculture and most of the technical and economic mitigation potential from agriculture - some 70 percent - are in developing countries.   The FAO paper notes that a climate change agenda will need to recognize and value agriculture''s potential contribution to adaptation and mitigation through options that also safeguard its contribution to food security and development.   Impact on food security   Climate change will affect the four dimensions of food security: availability, accessibility, utilization and stability, notes the FAO paper.   In terms of availability, increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations are expected to have some positive effect on the yield of many crops, even though the nutritional quality of produce may not increase in line with higher yields.   Climate change will increase the variability of agricultural production across all areas, with increased frequency of extreme climate events. The poorest regions will be exposed to the highest degree of instability of food production.   On average, food prices are expected to rise in line with increases in temperature until 2050. After 2050 and with further increases in temperatures, significant decreases in agricultural production potential in developing countries are projected and prices are expected to rise more substantially.   Climate change is likely to alter the conditions for food safety by increasing the disease pressure from vector, water and food-borne diseases. The result could be a substantial decline in agricultural productivity, including labour productivity, leading to increases in poverty and mortality rates.   Africa especially vulnerable   Agricultural and food production in many developing countries are likely to be adversely affected, especially in countries that have low incomes and a high incidence of hunger and poverty and are already highly vulnerable to drought, flooding and cyclone.   In Africa this may lead to an increased dependency in many countries on food imports. It has been estimated that climate change may reduce African potential agricultural output up to the 2080-2100 period by up to 30 percent.   The strongest negative impact of climate change on agriculture is expected in sub-Saharan Africa. This means that the poorest and most food insecure region is also expected to suffer the largest contraction of agricultural incomes.   Adaptation of the agricultural sector to climate change will be costly but vital for food security, poverty reduction and maintaining the ecosystem. The current impetus for investing in improved agricultural policies, institutions and technologies to meet both food security and energy goals, provides a unique opportunity to mainstream climate change related actions into agriculture, the paper notes.   It notes that, until recently, agriculture has largely remained a marginal issue in climate change negotiations, with some exception as regards deforestation and forest degradation mitigation activities. Among the reasons FAO identifies is that the scope of existing financing mechanisms has tended to exclude many agricultural activities, including many soil carbon sequestration activities. Visit the related web page
	The World Economic Crisis to have ‘unparalleled negative consequences’ on Human Development by Sha Zukang UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs   5 October 2009   The World Economic Crisis could have ‘Unparalleled Negative Consequences’ on Human Development, Third Committee Told, as Debate Begins for Current Session.   Sha Zukang, Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, this morning warned of “unparalleled negative consequences” to human development, with up to 100 million more people expected to fall below the poverty line, due to the poor health of the world economy.   Addressing the opening session of the Third Committee (Humanitarian, Social and Cultural), he said nations must devote special attention to those least able to handle periods of extended unemployment and rising prices. To support those vulnerable groups, nations needed strong protection systems that could preserve the well-being of families, and to prevent generations of families from becoming mired in poverty.   He told the Committee, which today launched a general debate on social development, that it could play a pivotal role in encouraging Member States to consider establishing a “social protection floor for all”. [The social protection floor is a concept promoted by the International Labour Organization (ILO) and accepted by the United Nations Chief Executive Board (CEB) as one of the policies to combat the global crises. It consists of access to basic health care, income security for the elderly and the disabled, child benefits and income security combined with employment guarantees for the poor in active age.]   Pointing to the poorest and most vulnerable people on the planet, Mr. Sha noted that combating social exclusion was prominent on the agenda of the Third Committee, also adding, “Failure to address their needs will lead to an increase in social exclusion and a rise in social tensions.”   He said men and women needed opportunities to obtain productive work while preserving their freedom, equity, security and human dignity -- the main tenets of inclusive social development. He drew attention to promising initiatives to strengthen social safety nets, such as the Vulnerability Financing Facility endorsed recently by the Group of 20, and the Global Jobs Pact, an initiative of the ILO endorsed by the Economic and Social Council in July, with an aim to protect and promote decent work.   Sweden’s Minister for Social Security, who spoke on behalf of the European Union, was one of several speakers stressing the importance of a job-intensive recovery from the world economic crisis, while also calling for a social safety net for those most in need. Explaining that world unemployment had increased to 190 million people, with another 40 million jobs expected to disappear by the end of 2009, now was the “time for further concrete steps” to prevent even greater marginalization and exclusion of the very poorest. She said one of the European Union’s main challenges was to prevent the unemployed from drifting into “long-term exclusion” resulting from a lack of adequate social protection and a passive benefit system. “We must provide people with real opportunities, even in times when work is hard to find,” she said.   To highlight the issue’s multi-faceted nature, the representative of Mexico, speaking on behalf of the Rio Group, described social integration as a question of moral duty, economic efficiency, as well as an “expression of solidarity and humanism.”   She said the Rio Group would continue to promote -- while calling for a more active role for the United Nations -- the rights of women, indigenous peoples, youth, older persons, migrants and people with disabilities. The Group had also decided to support the proposal to proclaim an International Year of Cooperatives, believing that indigenous peoples and rural communities would benefit from access to funding and productive land, adoption of sustainable production techniques, investment in infrastructure, and women’s participation in economic activities, all of which were promoted by cooperatives.   Today’s speakers included a handful of youth delegates, among them those from Norway and Turkey who expressed strong concerns over the environment. Norway’s speaker said climate change affected those who were struggling the most, but was caused disproportionately by those who “had the most”. It had seemed that those who had the most were taking certain rights for granted: the rights to life, liberty and security; the realization of economic, social and cultural rights; and the right to an adequate standard of living. But not everybody enjoyed those rights. Turkey’s youth delegate issued a global call for action on climate change, expressing hope for a successful outcome in Copenhagen. Visit the related web page
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