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	A peak into the humanitarian future by IRIN News / ReliefWeb   Not too far in the future - say, about 15 years, by which time the impact of climate change might have escalated tenfold - the day could come when the humanitarian community would have to provide water and food to millions of people in drought-affected Africa, tend to a few hundred thousand after a cyclone in Asia, and deal with another "Haiti" - all at the same time.   "Do you think the humanitarian community would be able to cope?" asked Randolph Kent, director of the Humanitarian Futures Programme at King"s College, London, and co-author of Humanitarian Horizons: A Practitioners Guide to the Future.   Not unless they reinvent themselves. But the shift has begun, and long-standing views of how disasters play out are being challenged. "No longer are humanitarian activities limited to immediate response and post-conflict recovery," the guide noted.   For some time the humanitarian community has tried to address both the causes and the effects of disasters, leading to an increasing number of humanitarian interventions that look more and more like traditional development activities".   Kent and the co-author of the guide, Peter Walker, director of the Feinstein International Centre at Tufts University in the US, predicted the emergence of a "new humanitarianism", in which the humanitarian agenda would expand to include governance, livelihood, security, social protection, and other development-like activities. Addressing vulnerability would become the key focus.   The guide also forecast that developing-country governments, particularly in Asia, would become more involved in national social protection programmes and seek open-ended support. Walker said in that context local humanitarian agencies "will grow, and international agencies may have to become more willing to be led by their local members/branches."   Paul Harvey, a humanitarian aid consultant, said he foresaw the re-emergence of the primacy of the state in addressing disasters. He noted that over the years aid flows to developing country governments had shifted to humanitarian agencies, "but recently the funds have begun to flow to governments directly with the emergence of countries such as Indonesia, Indian and China capable of responding to natural disasters."   The guide suggested that a new three-part humanitarian organization could be on the cards, with one part devoted to providing impartial aid in and around conflict zones; another to development assistance in areas of the world where poverty was rife but the state was stable; and a third part focusing on uncertain, disaster-prone, crisis-driven "fragile" states.   How to make it happen   What would it take for a humanitarian organization to adapt? "Two things ... the key is becoming far more aware of context and being evidence- rather than anecdote-driven," Walker told IRIN.   "If we are honest, we have seen a drift towards being over-concerned with financial accountability, meeting the deliverables of government contracts, and meeting internal standards. This needs to be balanced with a far greater push for local evidence, and this means moving much more authority into the field," he said.   "Second, in many places, rather like with the safety net system in Ethiopia, humanitarian agencies will have to choose between being independent emergency players and long-term providers of welfare, working closely with government systems. It is not a matter of right or wrong; both are legitimate, but they call for very different types of agencies."   Kent had six tips for aid agencies: Become more anticipatory so you need less time to plan. Become more adaptive and agile. Consider collaborations with scientists and academics to improve analytical capacity, broaden understanding of the complexities of societies and communities, and get a new perspective on possible future scenarios.   Keep up to date with innovations such as Plumpy nut, the ready-to-use therapeutic food that has revolutionized the treatment of severe malnutrition in children. More strategic leadership with vision is needed.   Kent said the humanitarian community had moved from an "advocacy, and morally driven" approach, to "being increasingly driven by managerialism"; it was time to bring advocacy and vision back.   Where would this leave the United Nations? Kent commented: "Broadly speaking, I feel that when it comes to humanitarian affairs, the UN has to become more of a standard-bearer, online coordinating facilitator, an innovations catalyst, and an active advocate about future vulnerability and solutions."   * Visit the link below to access the report. Visit the related web page
	World Food Agency says climate change will reduce access to food and water by WFP / Global Humanitarian Forum   Dec 2009   The WFP predicts that more frequent and intense natural disasters and reduced access to food and water will increase the risk of hunger around the world.   The WFP predicts that more frequent and intense natural disasters, deteriorating land productivity and reduced access to food and water will increase the risk of hunger around the world.   Recalling the height of the 2007-08 food price crisis, when "virtually overnight 150 million people joined the ranks of the hungry," WFP warned that the "drivers of vulnerability are still in place," predicting continued volatility in prices and supply "for the foreseeable future."   A new report by the WFP titled Climate Change and Hunger, Responding to the Challenge, predicts that "by 2050, the number of people at risk of hunger as a result of climate change is expected to increase by at least 20 per cent more than would be expected without climate change."   "Responding to increased hunger and malnutrition caused by the effects of climate change is expected to be a major focus of WFP''s work in the 21st century. The world needs to double the amount of food it produces by 2020," the WFP executive director said.   Prioritising Food Security in a Changing Climate. (Global Humanitarian Forum)   Drought, changing rainfall patterns, insect infestations and other climate changes were the focus of a roundtable on food security held in Geneva by the Global Humanitarian Forum. Five strategies were proposed to help strengthen food security in the face of worsening climate risks.   There is a need to improve the information flow to farmers in the poorest countries. They required day-to-day information about weather, crop prices and the infrastructure, as well as cell phones and computer networks.   The group recommended providing capacity-building to small-scale farmers and reviewing the laws on land ownership and management, particularly with a view to recognising the rights of women farmers.   Catherine Bertini, from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, pointed out that investment in agricultural development has decreased dramatically over the past few decades, as the lion’s share of aid budgets has been spent on emergency aid. It was agreed that agriculture needed more public sector support and should not simply be regarded as a commercial activity.   The expert group said that needy people in areas where food is scarce should be included in decisions about what kind of help is necessary. Farmers and, in particular women, should become decision-makers as most farmers in Asia and Africa are female.   It was agreed that vulnerable communities would greatly benefit from more effective, open and equitable international markets. Visit the related web page
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