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	The Great Food Crisis of 2011 by Lester R. Brown Earth Policy Institute   As the new year begins, the price of wheat is setting an all-time high in the United Kingdom. Food riots are spreading across Algeria. Russia is importing grain to sustain its cattle herds until spring grazing begins. India is wrestling with an 18-percent annual food inflation rate, sparking protests.   China is looking abroad for potentially massive quantities of wheat and corn. The Mexican government is buying corn futures to avoid unmanageable tortilla price rises. And on January 5, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization announced that its food price index for December hit an all-time high.   But whereas in years past, it''s been weather that has caused a spike in commodities prices, now it''s trends on both sides of the food supply/demand equation that are driving up prices. On the demand side, the culprits are population growth, rising affluence, and the use of grain to fuel cars.   On the supply side: soil erosion, aquifer depletion, the loss of cropland to nonfarm uses, the diversion of irrigation water to cities, the plateauing of crop yields in agriculturally advanced countries, and—due to climate change —crop-withering heat waves and melting mountain glaciers and ice sheets. These climate-related trends seem destined to take a far greater toll in the future.   There''s at least a glimmer of good news on the demand side: World population growth, which peaked at 2 percent per year around 1970, dropped below 1.2 percent per year in 2010. But because the world population has nearly doubled since 1970, we are still adding 80 million people each year.   Tonight, there will be 219,000 additional mouths to feed at the dinner table, and many of them will be greeted with empty plates. Another 219,000 will join us tomorrow night. At some point, this relentless growth begins to tax both the skills of farmers and the limits of the earth''s land and water resources.   Beyond population growth, there are now some 3 billion people moving up the food chain, eating greater quantities of grain-intensive livestock and poultry products. The rise in meat, milk, and egg consumption in fast-growing developing countries has no precedent. Total meat consumption in China today is already nearly double that in the United States.   The third major source of demand growth is the use of crops to produce fuel for cars. In the United States, which harvested 416 million tons of grain in 2009, 119 million tons went to ethanol distilleries to produce fuel for cars. That''s enough to feed 350 million people for a year.   The massive U.S. investment in ethanol distilleries sets the stage for direct competition between cars and people for the world grain harvest. In Europe, where much of the auto fleet runs on diesel fuel, there is growing demand for plant-based diesel oil, principally from rapeseed and palm oil.   This demand for oil-bearing crops is not only reducing the land available to produce food crops in Europe, it is also driving the clearing of rainforests in Indonesia and Malaysia for palm oil plantations.   The combined effect of these three growing demands is stunning: a doubling in the annual growth in world grain consumption from an average of 21 million tons per year in 1990-2005 to 41 million tons per year in 2005-2010. Most of this huge jump is attributable to the orgy of investment in ethanol distilleries in the United States in 2006-2008.   While the annual demand growth for grain was doubling, new constraints were emerging on the supply side, even as longstanding ones such as soil erosion intensified. An estimated one third of the world''s cropland is losing topsoil faster than new soil is forming through natural processes—and thus is losing its inherent productivity.   Two huge dust bowls are forming, one across northwest China, western Mongolia, and central Asia; the other in central Africa. Each of these dwarfs the U.S. dust bowl of the 1930s.   Satellite images show a steady flow of dust storms leaving these regions, each one typically carrying millions of tons of precious topsoil. In North China, some 24,000 rural villages have been abandoned or partly depopulated as grasslands have been destroyed by overgrazing and as croplands have been inundated by migrating sand dunes.   In countries with severe soil erosion, such as Mongolia and Lesotho, grain harvests are shrinking as erosion lowers yields and eventually leads to cropland abandonment. The result is spreading hunger and growing dependence on imports. Haiti and North Korea, two countries with severely eroded soils, are chronically dependent on food aid from abroad.   Meanwhile aquifer depletion is fast shrinking the amount of irrigated area in many parts of the world; this relatively recent phenomenon is driven by the large-scale use of mechanical pumps to exploit underground water.   Today, half the world''s people live in countries where water tables are falling as overpumping depletes aquifers. Once an aquifer is depleted, pumping is necessarily reduced to the rate of recharge unless it is a fossil (nonreplenishable) aquifer, in which case pumping ends altogether. But sooner or later, falling water tables translate into rising food prices.   Irrigated area is shrinking in the Middle East, notably in Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iraq, and possibly Yemen. In Saudi Arabia, which was totally dependent on a now-depleted fossil aquifer for its wheat self-sufficiency, production is in a freefall. From 2007 to 2010, Saudi wheat production fell by more than two thirds. By 2012, wheat production will likely end entirely, leaving the country totally dependent on imported grain.   The Arab Middle East is the first geographic region where spreading water shortages are shrinking the grain harvest. But the really big water deficits are in India, where the World Bank numbers indicate that 175 million people are being fed with grain that is produced by overpumping.   In China, overpumping provides food for some 130 million people. In the United States, the world''s other leading grain producer, irrigated area is shrinking in key agricultural states such as California and Texas.   The last decade has witnessed the emergence of yet another constraint on growth in global agricultural productivity: the shrinking backlog of untapped technologies. In some agriculturally advanced countries, farmers are using all available technologies to raise yields. In Japan, the first country to see a sustained rise in grain yield per acre, rice yields have been flat now for 14 years.   Rice yields in South Korea and China are now approaching those in Japan. Assuming that farmers in these two countries will face the same constraints as those in Japan, more than a third of the world rice harvest will soon be produced in countries with little potential for further raising rice yields.   A similar situation is emerging with wheat yields in Europe. In France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, wheat yields are no longer rising at all. These three countries together account for roughly one-eighth of the world wheat harvest. Another trend slowing the growth in the world grain harvest is the conversion of cropland to nonfarm uses.   Suburban sprawl, industrial construction, and the paving of land for roads, highways, and parking lots are claiming cropland in the Central Valley of California, the Nile River basin in Egypt, and in densely populated countries that are rapidly industrializing, such as China and India.   In 2011, new car sales in China are projected to reach 20 million—a record for any country. The U.S. rule of thumb is that for every 5 million cars added to a country''s fleet, roughly 1 million acres must be paved to accommodate them. And cropland is often the loser.   Fast-growing cities are also competing with farmers for irrigation water. In areas where all water is being spoken for, such as most countries in the Middle East, northern China, the southwestern United States, and most of India, diverting water to cities means less irrigation water available for food production.   California has lost perhaps a million acres of irrigated land in recent years as farmers have sold huge amounts of water to the thirsty millions in Los Angeles and San Diego.   The rising temperature is also making it more difficult to expand the world grain harvest fast enough to keep up with the record pace of demand. Crop ecologists have their own rule of thumb: For each 1 degree Celsius rise in temperature above the optimum during the growing season, we can expect a 10 percent decline in grain yields.   This temperature effect on yields was all too visible in western Russia during the summer of 2010 as the harvest was decimated when temperatures soared far above the norm.   Another emerging trend that threatens food security is the melting of mountain glaciers. This is of particular concern in the Himalayas and on the Tibetan plateau, where the ice melt from glaciers helps sustain not only the major rivers of Asia during the dry season, such as the Indus, Ganges, Mekong, Yangtze, and Yellow rivers, but also the irrigation systems dependent on these rivers. Without this ice melt, the grain harvest would drop precipitously and prices would rise accordingly.   And finally, over the longer term, melting ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica, combined with thermal expansion of the oceans, threaten to raise the sea level by up to six feet during this century. Even a three-foot rise would inundate half of the riceland in Bangladesh. It would also put under water much of the Mekong Delta that produces half the rice in Vietnam, the world''s number two rice exporter. Altogether there are some 19 other rice-growing river deltas in Asia where harvests would be substantially reduced by a rising sea level.   The current surge in world grain and soybean prices, and in food prices more broadly, is not a temporary phenomenon. We can no longer expect that things will soon return to normal, because in a world with a rapidly changing climate system there is no norm to return to.   The unrest of these past few weeks is just the beginning. It is no longer conflict between heavily armed superpowers, but rather spreading food shortages and rising food prices—and the political turmoil this would lead to—that threatens our global future. Unless governments quickly redefine security and shift expenditures from military uses to investing in climate change mitigation, water efficiency, soil conservation, and population stabilization, the world will in all likelihood be facing a future with both more climate instability and food price volatility. If business as usual continues, food prices will only trend upward.   * Lester R. Brown is the president of the Earth Policy Institute and author of World on the Edge: How to Prevent Environmental and Economic Collapse. Visit the related web page
	Food security update by ReliefWeb - Global Food Crisis   Soaring food prices pose problems for the poor whose ability to buy food is undermined. Governments of low-income countries face higher import bills, soaring costs for safety net programmes and potential political unrest. High food prices threaten the development gains made since the 1960s and highlight the long-term need for investment in, and better management of, the global food supply.   Climate change, high energy prices, globalization, and urbanization are transforming the world food situation.   Food prices are rising affecting not only the world’s poor, but also communities that had so far been food-secure. "That"s the new face of hunger, people who suddenly can no longer afford the food they see on store shelves because prices have soared beyond their reach"   Rising prices also hamper those in need of humanitarian assistance. According to WFP, high food prices are pushing 130 million people deeper into poverty and hunger.   Food prices remain high, intensifying concerns about food security and risking a "major setback" in the accomplishment of the UN Millennium Development Goals.   What is food security?   Food security exists when populations have access on an ongoing basis to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.   Global food prices are at their highest since the 2008 crisis. In the December 2010 quarter, prices increased sharply.   Adverse weather conditions also significantly increased international prices of wheat, maize and rice in the last year. International food prices rose by 14 per cent between September and December.   International prices of wheat and rice also increased significantly in November and early December, driven by a worsening of the outlook for crops in key producing countries and the weakening of the US dollar.   Overall in 2010, the FAO Food Price Index rose 25 per cent.   International wheat and maize prices are now about 50 per cent higher than a year ago. World cereal production has been affected by weather events, and unfavourable conditions for winter wheat and maize plantings in some major producing countries.   The global market is becoming more vulnerable and susceptible to episodes of extreme price volatility. Global grain prices rose dramatically when the Russian Federation banned exports, extended till 30 June 2011.   Donor Governments responses should include emergency food assistance, increased funding for rural development and international collaboration to prioritise food security.   Many agencies remain very concerned about the impact that ongoing food insecurity and price volatility is having on the poor.   Building community resilience by supporting the establishment and improvement of social protection programs that reduce the vulnerability of the poor to price shocks and economic stresses is essential.   Jan 2011   Food Prices highest since 2008.(IRIN)   Food prices are at their highest since the 2008 crisis, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).   In mid-2008, international food prices reached their highest level in 30 years, sparking one of the worst food crises in recent times, pushing more than a billion people into hunger.   The global average price of food - including cereals, cooking oil, meat and dairy products - was 25 percent higher in December 2010 than in December 2009, said Abdolreza Abbassian, secretary of the Intergovernmental Group on Grains at FAO.   Although the average prices of cereals such as maize, wheat and rice were 39 percent up from December 2009. Inclement weather and price volatility propelled prices during the second half of 2010.   As drought and fires raged through Russia and Ukraine, two of the world"s top wheat producers, prices began to climb in July 2010. By September 2010 wheat prices had risen by between 60 and 80 percent and Russia banned exports.   Canada, another major wheat producer, was hit by bad weather. Since November, prolonged dry conditions have affected soya bean and maize crops in Argentina, also among the top producers. Floods in Australia, added the impact on prices.   "High prices are not going to go away and there is a strong possibility that they may remain high for at least two years."   Lack of clarity on the supply of maize in China was also worrying, "food inflation is quite high," Abbassian said.   He suggested that countries with ample stocks of staple foods should maintain strategic reserves.   Jan 2011   Record Food Prices put World in Danger. (The Independent)   Food riots, geopolitical tensions, global inflation and increasing hunger among the planet"s poorest people are the likely effects of a new surge in world food prices, which have hit an all-time high according to the United Nations.   The UN"s index of food prices - an international basket comprising wheat, corn, dairy produce, meat and sugar - stands at its highest since the index started in 1990, surpassing even the peaks seen during the 2008 food crisis, which prompted civil disturbances from Mexico to Indonesia.   "We are entering danger territory," said the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation"s chief economist, Abdolreza Abbassian.   Global food prices have risen for the sixth month in succession. Wheat has almost doubled since June, sugar is at a 30-year high, and pork is up by a quarter since the beginning of 2010.   The biggest impact of the food price shock will be felt in countries in the developing world where staple items command a much larger share of household incomes.   Economists warn that "soft commodity" food prices show little sign of stabilising, and that cereals and sugar in particular may surge even higher in coming months.   In addition, long-term trends associated with growth in population and climate change may mean higher food costs become a permanent feature of economic life, even though the current spike may end in due course.   Speculation, too, is part of the crisis, as investors climb on to the rising food-price bandwagon.   Mr Abbassian said the UN agency is concerned by the unpredictability of weather activity, which many experts link to climate change. He said: "There is still room for prices to go up much higher, if for example the dry conditions in Argentina tend to become a drought, and if we start having problems with winterkill in the northern hemisphere for the wheat crops."   One concern, especially in Ukraine and Russia, is that the cold winter, following disastrous droughts and summer fires, will have damaged the seeds for next year"s crops, leading to an even more acute crisis than seen last year. Government policies, especially the export bans imposed by nervous governments, have exacerbated such problems in world markets.   Meanwhile, burgeoning consumption in the booming economies of east Asia and the pressure exerted by the demand for crops for biofuels rather than food, especially in the US, is adding to the unprecedented squeeze on world food supplies.   The latest surge in crude oil prices adds to the risk of turmoil. Many experts say oil prices show few signs of abating, and the price of a barrel is set to breach the $100 barrier again soon. Oil peaked at just under $150 a barrel in 2008; any sign of renewed tension in Iran would see the price exceed that. Higher oil prices add to food price inflation by increasing transportation costs.   The interplay of rising fuel prices, the growing use of biofuels, bad weather and soaring futures markets drove up the price of food dramatically in 2008, prompting violent protests in Mexico, Indonesia, Egypt, Cameroon and Haiti.   One of the underlying trends is the growing and changing appetites of east Asia. As more Chinese enter the middle classes they tend to consume more poultry and meat, just as Westerners did at a similar stage in their economic progress. However, meat and poultry husbandry consumes at least three times the resources that grains do, while the drift towards the cities in China is reducing the yields of its farms. Similar trends are visible in the other fast-growing, populous nations such as Brazil, India and Indonesia.   Countries that are poor and produce relatively little of their own food are most vulnerable to the food price shock - Bangladesh, Morocco and Nigeria top the "at risk" list, according to research by Nomura economists, who also identify growing shortages of water as a critical factor restraining any growth in agricultural productivity.   Owen Job, strategist at Nomura, said: "The economists model of increasing supply as demand grows may be breaking down. Supply cannot keep up with factors such as biofuels and the urbanisation of China. Some 30 per cent of all water used in agriculture comes from unsustainable sources."   26-01-2011 (FAO)   The poorest of those most affected by high food prices spend over 75 percent of their income on food.   The FAO Food Price Index, a measure of basic food prices at international level, peaked in December 2010. "With this new price shock only two years after the crisis in 2007/08 there is a serious concern now about implications for food markets in vulnerable countries".   The report stress that low-income food-deficit countries have been hit hard by high food prices in recent years. Many of these countries have to pay larger food import bills when food prices are soaring. Almost all countries in Africa are net importers of cereals.   The people most affected by higher food prices are net food buyers such as urban residents and small farmers, fishers, foresters, pastoralists and agricultural labourers who do not produce enough food to cover their needs. The poorest among them spend more than 75 percent of their income on buying food.   The agency highlighted the importance of investment in developing countries agricultural sectors to realize sustainable increases in productivity, healthy markets, increased resilience to international price spikes and improved food security.   Community seed production by farmer groups or cooperatives, can also enhance access to both traditional and improved seed varieties at the community level.   The FAO also highlighted instruments that can be used to target the food insecurity of the poor, such as safety net programmes based on food or cash transfers. The report says it is important to consider the interactions between safety nets and "development" interventions in order to build on potential synergies in support programs. Visit the related web page
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