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	World may face Years of Social Unrest as Economies Falter by International Labour Organisation (ILO)   The international economy is on the brink of a deep new economic crisis that could cost millions of jobs around the globe and trigger mass social unrest, the world"s most powerful nations were warned yesterday.   As the leaders of the G20 countries prepare for emergency talks on averting a return to worldwide recession, the United Nations International Labour Organisation (ILO) issued a grim forecast of the social effects of the continuing economic crisis.   The UN agency warned that it could take until 2016 for global employment to return to the levels of three years ago – and that anger could erupt on the streets of Europe and other continents as a result.   October 31, 2011   World of Work Report 2011- ILO says world heading for a new and deeper jobs recession, warns of more social unrest. (ILO News)   In a grim analysis issued on the eve of the G20 leaders summit, the International Labour Organization (ILO) says the global economy is on the verge of a new and deeper jobs recession that will further delay the global economic recovery and may ignite more social unrest in scores of countries.   “We have reached the moment of truth. We have a brief window of opportunity to avoid a major double-dip in employment,” said Raymond Torres, Director of the ILO International Institute for Labour Studies that issued the report.   The new “World of Work Report 2011: Making markets work for jobs” says a stalled global economic recovery has begun to dramatically affect labour markets. On current trends, it will take at least five years to return employment in advanced economies to pre-crisis levels, one year later than projected in last year’s report.   Noting that the current labour market is already within the confines of the usual six-month lag between an economic slowdown and its impact on employment, the report indicates that 80 million jobs need to be created over the next two years to return to pre-crisis employment rates. However, the recent slowdown in growth suggests that the world economy is likely to create only half of the jobs needed.   The report also features a new “social unrest” index that shows levels of discontent over the lack of jobs and anger over perceptions that the burden of the crisis is not being shared fairly. It notes that in over 45 of the 119 countries examined, the risk of social unrest is rising. This is especially the case in advanced economies, notably the EU, the Arab region and to a lesser extent Asia. By contrast, there is a stagnant or lower risk of social unrest in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.   The study shows that nearly two-thirds of advanced economies and half of emerging and developing economies with recent available data are once again experiencing a slowdown in employment. This comes on top of an already precarious employment situation in which global unemployment is at its highest point ever, over 200 million worldwide.   The report cites three reasons why the ongoing economic slowdown may have a particularly strong impact on the employment panorama: first, compared to the start of the crisis, enterprises are now in a weaker position to retain workers; second, as pressure to adopt fiscal austerity measures mount, governments are less inclined to maintain or adopt new job- and income-support programmes; and third, countries are left to act in isolation due to lack of international policy coordination.   The report’s other main findings include:   • Approximately 80 million net new jobs will be needed over the next two years to re-attain pre-crisis employment rates (27 million in advanced economies and the remainder in emerging and developing countries).   • Out of 118 countries with available data, 69 countries show an increase in the percentage of people reporting a worsening of living standards in 2010 compared to 2006. Respondents in half of 99 countries surveyed say they do not have confidence in their national governments.   • In 2010, more than 50 per cent of people in developed countries report being dissatisfied with the availability of decent jobs (in countries such as Greece, Italy, Portugal, Slovenia, and Spain, more than 70 per cent of survey respondents reported dissatisfaction).   • The share of profit in GDP increased in 83 per cent of the countries analyzed between 2000 and 2009. Productive investment, however, stagnated globally during the same period.   • In advanced countries, the growth in corporate profits among non-financial firms was translated into a substantial increase in dividend payouts (from 29 per cent of profits in 2000 to 36 per cent in 2009) and financial investment (from 81.2 per cent of GDP in 1995 to 132.2 per cent in 2007). The crisis reversed slightly these trends, which resumed in 2010.   • Food price volatility doubled during the period 2006-2010 relative to the preceding five years, affecting decent work prospects in developing countries. Financial investors benefit more from price volatility than food producers, especially small ones.   The report calls for maintaining and in some cases strengthening pro-employment programmes, warning that efforts to reduce public debt and deficits have often disproportionately focused on labour market and social measures. For example, it shows that increasing active labour market spending by only half a per cent of GDP would increase employment by between 0.4 per cent and 0.8 per cent, depending on the country.   The study also calls for supporting investment in the real economy through financial reform and pro-investment measures.   Finally, it says that the adage that wage moderation leads to job creation is a myth, and calls for a comprehensive income-led recovery strategy. This would also help stimulate investment while reducing excessive income inequalities. Visit the related web page
	One in seven people now face hunger by Oxfam International   Leaders of G20 Countries need to rise above a narrow vision of self-interest and act decisively for the world’s poorest citizens, says international agency Oxfam.   One in seven people now face hunger. The global economy is uncertain, with poor people being hit the hardest. Even among the G20, a return to strong economic growth will not stop people in many countries from sliding into poverty because of great disparities in income.   Oxfam believes G20 countries need to address three burning questions:   Will more G20 leaders support innovative sources of funding to fight poverty and climate change?   Will they start to act on the causes of rising and volatile food prices?   Will they start to tackle growing inequality in their approach to sustained and inclusive growth?   “The Eurozone crisis will hog the headlines but if the G20 genuinely wants to ‘sustainably improve global stability and prosperity’ then it needs to act on much wider concerns,” said Oxfam’s Carlos Zarco Mera.   Oxfam identified three issues that should feature in G20’s agenda which, if properly supported, would make a significant contribution to global stability and prosperity.   Build more global support for “Robin Hood” financial transaction taxes and a fair carbon charge on international shipping.   The financial crisis has left a $65 billion hole in poor country budgets. Aid flows are down. Climate change is leaving millions of people at risk of hunger and homelessness.   A small broad-based tax of 0.05 per cent on financial transactions could raise up to $400 billion a year, while a carbon price on shipping could help to cut emissions and in the process raise $25 billion a year. Each proposal has attracted widespread support.   “These are genuine and innovative solutions to free up a lot of new money to help people being hit hardest by global shocks,” Zarco Mera said. More G20 leaders should support in helping to bring these ideas to life.   Tackle food price volatility   The G20 first looked at commodity price fluctuations in 2009 but two years later, very little has been achieved. 44 million people fell into poverty in the second half of 2010 due to rising food prices and Oxfam says prices may double again in the coming years.   The French President has put the food price crisis on the G20 agenda. He has called for strong market regulation, improved transparency and more work on inventories and insurance in order to manage the effects of price instability.   However, in June, Agriculture Ministers made a feeble call for more studies on biofuels targets and food reserves and speculation but offered little real action.   “G20 leaders have been poorly served by their agriculture ministers and have been left with a huge amount of work to do if they’re going to make any significant improvements for poor producers and consumers”.   Oxfam believes that the G20 must now make good on the bold promises it made in Seoul in 2010 to promote ‘shared and green growth’.   “The G20 raised hopes that it would tilt the balance of economic policy in favour of the poor,” Zarco Mera said.   “Its policies now need to concentrate equally on the quality of growth, not just the quantity, so that the benefits of growth reach all people, people living in poverty.” Despite previous promises to fight tax havens, G20 members have not secured any durable improvement in tax cooperation since 2009 and most countries are still left out of negotiations.   The G20 must force tax havens to be fully transparent and promote more transparency from multinational companies.   “Many companies are still hiding from the tax man in dozens of unregulated tax havens around the world. No real sanctions or transparency obligations have been put in place. For ever dollar they get in aid, developing countries are still seeing around $10 leaving their borders, mainly diverted via tax havens,” Zarco Mera said.   The G20 is considering the kind of systematic reforms that we need in order to make the economy work fairly for everyone. They need to protect poor people from the worsening effects not only of failing financial markets, but act on climate change, inequality and food insecurity as well. Visit the related web page
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