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Trump tariff trade war cuts world economic growth
by AP, Peterson Institute, agencies
 
July 2025
 
Trump tariffs goods from Brazil at 50%, citing trial against country’s former far right president Jair Bolsonaro, who tried to stay in office after election loss.
 
Donald Trump’s has told Brazilian President, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, that the US would be imposing a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil, saying that the move was motivated by the treatment of former far right president Jair Bolsonaro, who is on trial for allegedly plotting to remain in office after losing his bid for re-election in 2022 and is barred from running for office until 2030.
 
Bolsonaro faces charges including involvement in an armed criminal organisation and attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law. The culmination of Bolsonaro’s efforts to hold on to power was a riot by his supporters in the nation’s capital who tried to prevent the transfer of power to the election’s winner, Lula, on 8 January 2023.
 
Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has firmly rejected Donald Trump’s demand that legal proceedings against former president Jair Bolsonaro be dropped and his claim that a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports was necessary to close a trade deficit that does not, in fact, exist.
 
Trump also objected to Brazil’s supreme court fining of social media companies such as Twitter/X, saying the temporary blocking last year amounted to “Censorship Orders”. Trump said he is launching an investigation as a result under section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which applies to companies with trade practices that are deemed unfair to US companies.
 
In a statement posted on social media and his government’s website, the Brazilian president responded, point by point, to the claims made by Trump in a letter addressed to him earlier on Wednesday.
 
"In light of the public statement made by US President Donald Trump on social media on the afternoon of Wednesday (9), it is important to highlight the following: Brazil is a sovereign nation with independent institutions and will not accept any form of tutelage. The judicial proceedings against those responsible for planning the coup d'etat fall exclusively under the jurisdiction of Brazil's Judicial Branch and, as such, are not subject to any interference or threats that could compromise the independence of national institutions," Lula said
 
The president also rejected Trump’s claim that Brazil’s efforts to regulate the operations of US social media platforms on its territory in accordance with its own laws are not, as Trump had claimed, a form of censorship.
 
“Brazilian society rejects hateful content, racism, child pornography, scams, fraud, and speeches against human rights and democratic freedom” Lula wrote. “In Brazil, freedom of expression must not be confused with aggression or violent practices. All companies—whether domestic or foreign—must comply with Brazilian law in order to operate within our territory.”
 
The Brazilian president, then corrected Trump’s false claim that the US runs a trade deficit with Brazil. "The claim regarding a US trade deficit in its commercial relationship with Brazil is inaccurate. Statistics from the US government itself show a surplus of $410 billion in the trade of goods and services with Brazil over the past 15 years. Therefore, any unilateral tariff increases will be addressed in accordance with Brazil's Economic Reciprocity Law. Sovereignty, respect and the unwavering defense of the interests of the Brazilian people are the values that guide our relationship with the world," Lula added.
 
The response from Brazil’s president came after an indirect exchange through the media earlier in the week. After Trump claimed on Sunday that BRICS, a group of emerging economies founded in 2009 by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, was an “anti-American” grouping he intended to demolish through tariffs, Lula was asked for his response at a BRICS summit in Rio. “The world has changed. We don’t want an emperor,” he said. “If he thinks he can impose tariffs, other countries have the right to impose tariffs too.”
 
During his first term in office, it was obvious that Trump saw then president Bolsonaro – a far-right, climate-change denier – as a kindred spirit, and Bolsonaro’s son, Eduardo has cultivated close ties to Trump’s inner circle, and family, during visits to the US. In a series of social media posts, he thanked Donald Trump for imposing a punitive 50% tariff on Brazilian exports to the United States.
 
Pedro Abramovay, who worked in Brazil’s ministry of justice during Lula’s first two terms in office:said; “Bolsonaro sends his son to the US to ask Trump for help. The help comes in the form of punishment for Brazilians: 50% tariffs on our products,” Abramovay wrote. “In other words, Bolsonaro considers supporting his impunity more important than preserving jobs in Brazil.”
 
http://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/14/opinion/lula-da-silva-brazil-trump-bolsonaro.html http://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state-us-tariffs-august-7-2025 http://budgetlab.yale.edu/topic/trade http://apnews.com/article/asia-tariffs-trump-china-trade-78d11d9d8ab4eb66898e12fdbd5aa9b4 http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jul/11/donald-trump-latest-tariff-threats-analysis-us-economy http://www.opendemocracy.net/en/eduardo-bolsonaro-lobbying-us-sanctions-brazil-justice-supreme-court-marco-rubio-figueiredo-moraes-magnitsky-act-coup/
 
10 June 2025
 
AP: World Bank, OECD sharply downgrade global economic growth forecast.
 
President Donald Trump’s trade wars are expected to slash economic growth this year in the United States and around the world, the World Bank forecast Tuesday.
 
Citing “a substantial rise in trade barriers" but without mentioning Trump by name, the 189-country lender predicted that the U.S. economy – the world’s largest – would grow half as fast (1.4%) this year as it did in 2024 (2.8%). That marked a downgrade from the 2.3% U.S. growth it had forecast back for 2025 back in January.
 
The bank also lopped 0.4 percentage points off its forecast for global growth this year. It now expects the world economy to expand just 2.3% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024.
 
In a forward to the latest version of the twice-yearly Global Economic Prospects report, World Bank chief economist Indermit Gill wrote that the global economy has missed its chance for the “soft landing’’ — slowing enough to tame inflation without generating serious pain — it appeared headed for just six months ago. “The world economy today is once more running into turbulence,” Gill wrote. “Without a swift course correction, the harm to living standards could be deep.’’
 
America’s economic prospects have been clouded by Trump’s erratic and aggressive trade policies, including 10% taxes — tariffs — on imports from almost every country in the world. These levies drive up costs in the U.S. and invite retaliation from other countries.
 
The Chinese economy is forecast to see growth slow from 5% in 2024 to 4.5% this year and 4% next. The world’s second-largest economy has been hobbled by the tariffs that Trump has imposed on its exports, by a faltering of its real estate market.
 
The World Bank expects the 20 European countries that share the euro currency to collectively grow just 0.7% this year. Trump’s tariffs are expected to hurt European exports. And the unpredictable way he rolls them out — announcing them, suspending them, coming up with new ones — has created uncertainty that discourages business investment.
 
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development — last week also downgraded its forecast for the U.S. and global economies.
 
Trump’s policies have raised average U.S. tariff rates from around 2.5% when he returned to the White House to 15.4%, highest since 1938, according to the OECD. Tariffs raise costs for consumers and American manufacturers that rely on imported raw materials and components.
 
Global trade and the economic outlook have been clouded by Trump’s sweeping taxes on imports, the unpredictable way he’s rolled them out and the threat of retaliation from other countries.
 
Trump has levied 10% taxes — tariffs — on imports from almost every country on earth along with specific duties on steel, aluminum and autos. He’s also threatened more import taxes, including a doubling of his tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%.
 
Without mentioning Trump by name, OECD chief economist Alvaro Pereira wrote in a commentary that accompanied the forecast that “we have seen a significant increase in trade barriers as well as in economic and trade policy uncertainty. This sharp rise in uncertainty has negatively impacted business and consumer confidence and is set to hold back trade and investment.’'
 
http://apnews.com/article/world-economy-trump-tariffs-trade-growth-china-5a56591be1373cf34a5ba4bbe8ab6661 http://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2025/trumps-tariffs-damage-us-economy-more-if-they-drive-investors-away http://www.piie.com/publications/working-papers/2025/global-economic-effects-trumps-2025-tariffs http://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2025/trumps-trade-war-timeline-20-date-guide http://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2025/how-us-multinationals-escaped-global-minimum-corporate-tax http://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/07/09/america-cannot-dodge-the-consequences-of-rising-tariffs-for-ever http://www.npr.org/2025/07/12/nx-s1-5463818/trump-tariff-rate-letters http://odi.org/en/publications/vulnerability-of-low-and-middle-income-countries-to-the-impacts-of-aid-cuts-and-us-tariff-increases/ http://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2025/07/03/global-economy-braces-for-trump-s-trade-war-and-its-consequences_6742997_19.html http://www.dw.com/en/eu-vows-response-to-trumps-30-tariff-announcement/live-73254120 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-01/trump-tariff-trade-war-experts-warning-four-corners/105470470 http://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state-us-tariffs-august-7-2025
 
Oct. 2024
 
AP: Trump’s economic plans would worsen inflation, experts say.
 
With characteristic bravado, Donald Trump has vowed that if voters return him to the White House, “inflation will vanish completely.”
 
It’s a message tailored for Americans who are still exasperated by the jump in consumer prices that began 3 1/2 years ago.
 
Yet most mainstream economists say Trump’s policy proposals wouldn’t vanquish inflation. They’d make it worse. They warn that his plans to impose huge tariffs on imported goods, deport millions of migrant workers and demand a voice in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies would likely send prices surging.
 
Sixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists signed a letter in June expressing fear that Trump’s proposals would “reignite’’ inflation, which has plummeted since peaking at 9.1% in 2022 and is nearly back to the Fed’s 2% target.
 
The Nobel economists noted that they aren’t alone in sounding the alarm. “Nonpartisan researchers,” they said, “predict that if Donald Trump successfully enacts his agenda, it will increase inflation.”
 
Last month, the Peterson Institute for International Economics predicted that Trump’s policies — the deportations, import taxes and efforts to erode the Fed’s independence — would drive consumer prices sharply higher two years into his second term. Peterson’s analysis concluded that inflation, which would otherwise register 1.9% in 2026, would instead jump to between 6% and 9.3% if Trump’s economic proposals were adopted.
 
Taxes on imports — tariffs — are Trump’s go-to economic policy. While in office, Trump started a trade war with China, imposing high tariffs on most Chinese goods. He also raised import taxes on foreign steel and aluminum, washing machines and solar panels. He has still grander plans for a second term: Trump wants to impose a 60% tariff on all Chinese goods and a “universal" tariff of 10% or 20% on everything else that enters the United States.
 
Trump insists that the cost of taxing imported goods is absorbed by the foreign countries that produce those goods. The truth, though, is that U.S. importers pay the tariff — and then typically pass along that cost to consumers in the form of higher prices, which is how Americans themselves end up bearing the cost of tariffs.
 
“There’s no question that tariffs are inflationary,’’ said Kent Smetters of the University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton Budget Model, which studies the costs of government policies.
 
Kimberly Clausing and Mary Lovely of the Peterson Institute have calculated that Trump’s proposed 60% tax on Chinese imports and his high-end 20% tariff on everything else would, in combination, impose an after-tax loss on a typical American household of $2,600 a year.
 
Trump has made some implausible claims for protectionist policies. Asked how he would lower grocery prices — a particular irritant to many Americans — Trump has said the nation should limit the importation of food because America’s farmers are “being decimated’’ by foreign competition.
 
“It’s sort of nonsensical to say that I am worried about high food prices, so I want to put a tax on food imports,” said Clausing, who is also a UCLA economist specializing in tax policy. “As you tax them, the food in the grocery store absolutely gets more expensive.”
 
A huge proportion of food consumed in the United States — about 60% of fresh fruit and 38% of vegetables — are imported, according to Department of Agriculture data.
 
“While Trump tariff promises to ‘make the foreigners pay,’ researchers concluded in their Peterson report, ”our analysis shows his policies will end up making Americans pay the most.”
 
http://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/04/10/tariff-reality-check-trump-retreat-00285270 http://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fiscal-and-economic-effects-revised-april-9-tariffs http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/09/trump-tariffs-list-pause http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/09/trump-tariffs-threaten-global-growth-and-raise-risk-of-severe-shocks-says-bank-of-england http://www.democracynow.org/2025/4/10/tariffs_trade_war_china_markets http://www.democracynow.org/2025/4/7/jayati_ghosh_tariffs http://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2025/04/05/poor-countries-are-victims-of-trump-s-cynicism_6739870_23.html http://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/apr/06/trumps-tariffs-may-be-perilous-for-small-heavily-indebted-countries-in-global-south
 
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/apr/09/dramatic-sell-off-of-us-government-bonds-as-tariff-war-panic-deepens http://theconversation.com/new-modelling-reveals-full-impact-of-trumps-liberation-day-tariffs-with-the-us-hit-hardest-253320 http://humanrightseconomics.ch/2025/gender-equality/tariffs-women-workers/ http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/12/i-feel-utter-anger-from-canada-to-europe-a-movement-to-boycott-us-goods-is-spreading http://www.france24.com/en/europe/20250314-europeans-boycott-us-products-to-protest-against-trump-tariffs http://www.dw.com/en/trade-boycott-us-products-donald-trump-tariffs-v5/a-71899620 http://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/blogs/americo-martins/internacional/brasil-deveria-retaliar-trump-com-imposto-sobre-oligarcas-diz-economista/ http://www.brookings.edu/articles/tariffs-on-all-imports-would-create-chaos-for-business/


 


Countless people are struggling to make ends meet while wealth and power is concentrated at the top
by World Social Report 2025
UNU WIDER, UN Division for Inclusive Social Development
 
Millions of people around the world are living in fear of job loss or struggling to find work, as economic instability, conflict, and climate shocks combine to erode global security, a new UN report has warned.
 
According to the World Social Report 2025, the sobering sentiment indicates a widespread lack of confidence in the future. Despite people living longer, being better educated and more connected than ever before, many believe that life today is worse than it was 50 years ago.
 
Close to 60 per cent of people surveyed on life satisfaction reported that they were “struggling” with a further 12 per cent describing themselves as “suffering”, the report notes.
 
According to the report, economic instability is no longer limited to the world’s poorest regions. Even in high-income countries, rising job uncertainty, gig work and the digital transition are contributing to this trend.
 
These jobs may offer flexibility but often come at the cost of security and rights – reducing workers to mere service providers in a commodified labour market.
 
The insecurities are further compounded by an alarming rise in informal employment. In many low and middle-income countries, jobs with no safety net remains the norm, locking workers into cycles of low pay, instability, and zero benefits.
 
Even those who manage to enter formal employment face significant risks of being pushed back into the informal sector, especially during downturns.
 
For over 2.8 billion people living on less than $6.85 a day – the threshold for extreme poverty – “even a small shock can send people into extreme poverty and any escapes from poverty are often temporary,” the report warns.
 
The situation is further complicated by rising climate change impacts and worsening conflicts, further undermining local economies and deepening inequality, especially in the developing world.
 
As financial pressures mount and stability erodes, public confidence in institutions – and in one another – has also taken a severe hit, particularly among young people.
 
Over half the world’s population (57 per cent) now expresses low levels of confidence in government. Among those born in the 21st century, trust levels are even lower – raising concerns about long-term civic disengagement and political instability.
 
People’s trust in one another is also eroding. Fewer than 30 per cent of people in countries with available data believe that most others can be trusted, undermining social cohesion and complicating efforts for collective action.
 
“The spread of misinformation and disinformation, facilitated by digital technologies, is reinforcing divisions and fuelling distrust,” the report says, warning of abuse and misuse of digital platforms and social media to spread deceit and hate speech, and stoke conflicts.
 
“Often, users find themselves immersed in virtual and siloed ‘echo chambers’ where they are exposed to news and opinions that align with and may even radicalize their views.”
 
Platform algorithms facilitate the creation of such echo chambers and reward more extreme content and engagement with higher visibility, the report adds.
 
To reverse these damaging trends, the report calls for a bold shift in policymaking – one grounded in equity, economic security and solidarity.
 
It urges governments to invest more in people through expanding access to quality public services – such as education, healthcare, housing and robust social protection systems.
 
These investments are not discretionary, the report stresses, but essential to promote resilience and inclusive growth.
 
It also highlights the need to rebuild trust through inclusive and accountable institutions. At the same time, power and wealth needs to become less concentrated at the very top of society.
 
As momentum builds toward the Second World Summit for Social Development, which will be held in Doha in November, global leadership will be key to driving transformative change.
 
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stressed the need for unity and decisive action in a foreword to the report.
 
“The global challenges we face demand collective solutions,” he wrote. “Now more than ever, we must strengthen our resolve to come together and build a world that is more just, secure, resilient and united for each and every one of us.”
 
http://www.wider.unu.edu/news/world-social-report-2025-sounds-alarm-global-social-crisis http://desapublications.un.org/publications/world-social-report-2025-new-policy-consensus-accelerate-social-progress http://www.unrisd.org/en/research/projects/second-world-summit-for-social-development http://www.unrisd.org/en/library/blog-posts/still-reaching-for-the-band-aid-vulnerability-risk-and-the-world-social-summit http://www.socialprotectionfloorscoalition.org/2025/06/second-world-summit-for-social-development-resources/ http://www.socialprotectionfloorscoalition.org/ http://www.ipsnews.net/2025/05/2025-world-social-summit-must-not-missed-opportunity/
 
Aug. 2025
 
Sri Lanka’s crisis shows how debt is devouring the Global South - From Africa to Asia to Latin America, billions go hungry while creditors profit, by Anuka Vimuthi Silva and Amali Wedagedara. (Al Jazeera, agencies)
 
Sri Lanka is undergoing one of the most complex economic experiences in its history. The country’s financial collapse in 2022 was precipitated by a toxic mix of unsustainable borrowing, poor fiscal management, and external shocks.
 
Mass protests erupted under the banner of Aragalaya, a broad-based citizens’ movement demanding accountability, economic justice, and an end to political corruption.
 
The uprising ultimately forced the resignation of the sitting president, Gotabaya Rajapaksa. However, following his resignation, the administration of Ranil Wickremesinghe recaptured power.
 
Delaying calls for new elections, in 2023 the Wickremesinghe administration negotiated $3bn of support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under its New Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement. Later that year, to unlock a second instalment of this bailout package, Sri Lanka also reached a debt restructuring agreement with a group of creditors including China, India, and Japan.
 
Even though, by September 2024, the Sri Lankan people elected a progressive government led by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, with a historic mandate, the new administration has since been trapped within the constraints imposed by the IMF and the previous political establishment.
 
The mainstream neoliberal narrative has been quick to highlight the arrangement with the IMF, known as the 17th IMF program, as a sign of stabilisation, praising the debt restructuring agreement and compliance with IMF conditions. But what of the human cost of this “recovery”?
 
The punitive structural adjustment process includes privatising state-owned enterprises, disconnecting the Central Bank from state control, curtailing the state’s capacity to borrow, and subordinating national development aspirations to the interests of creditors.
 
It has placed the burden of its Domestic Debt Optimisation on working people’s retirement savings, specifically the Employees Provident Fund (EPF), raising concerns among salaried workers whose current real incomes have already been cut by high inflation and higher taxes.
 
Public sector hiring has been frozen, major rural infrastructure projects in transport and irrigation have been delayed or cancelled, and funding for health and education has stagnated even as costs rise.
 
The reforms undertaken to achieve macroeconomic stability, including interest rate hikes, tax adjustments, the removal of subsidies, increased energy pricing, and the erosion of workers’ pensions, have demanded a great deal from citizens.
 
The IMF program has also ushered in neoliberal legal reforms that erode the public accountability of the Central Bank, limit the government’s fiscal capabilities, and encourage the privatisation of land, water, and seeds through agribusiness.
 
To meet IMF targets – most notably, the goal of achieving a 2.3 percent primary budget surplus by 2025 – the Sri Lankan government has introduced sweeping austerity measures. Where else will that surplus come from if not from the money pots of the poor?
 
Bankers may welcome this austerity, but for those living and working in rural areas and coastal villages, it spells hardship and fear.
 
The imbalances within the debt restructuring program prioritise investor profit over the public interest, shrinking the fiscal space needed to rebuild essential services.
 
Civil society groups estimate that 6.3 million people are now skipping meals, and at least 65,600 are experiencing severe food shortages.
 
In a noteworthy move, newly elected President Anura Dissanayake has instructed the treasury to reinstate subsidies for the agricultural and fishing sectors. While welcome, this may not be enough. Fishermen report that fuel costs remain steep, eating into their incomes.
 
Farmers, many locked into chemical input-intensive production, are struggling with rising costs, climate catastrophes, and reduced state support.
 
Sri Lanka’s 2025 public health allocation accounts for just 1.5 percent of its gross domestic product – five times smaller than the amount allocated to service the interest on public debt. This stark disparity highlights the fiscal constraints placed on basic social spending.
 
But this is not just a Sri Lankan story. It is part of a broader global debt emergency draining public finances across the Global South. A vast number of countries in Africa, Asia, Latin America, the Caribbean, the Pacific, and Central Europe have been forced to cede national policymaking autonomy to international financial institutions like the IMF, World Bank, and Asian Development Bank (ADB).
 
A recent United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report reveals that half of the world’s population – approximately 3.3 billion people – now live in countries that spend more on interest payments than on health or education. In 2024 alone, developing countries paid a staggering $921bn in interest, with African nations among the hardest hit.
 
UNCTAD warns that rising global interest rates and a fundamentally unjust financial architecture are entrenching a cycle of dependency and underdevelopment.
 
Developing countries routinely pay interest rates several times higher than those charged to wealthy nations, yet existing debt relief mechanisms remain inadequate – ad hoc, fragmented, and overwhelmingly tilted in favour of creditors. The demand for a permanent, transparent debt resolution mechanism – centred on justice, development, and national sovereignty – is gaining momentum among Global South governments.
 
This issue is also drawing serious attention from global grassroots movements. In September this year, more than 500 delegates from around the world will convene in Kandy, Sri Lanka, for the 3rd Nyeleni Global Forum for food sovereignty. One of the key themes will be the global debt crisis and how it undermines basic rights to food, education, health, and land.
 
It is clear to those of us in the Global South that a just recovery cannot be built on fiscal targets and compliance checklists alone. We demand the reclaiming of public space for investment in social goods, the democratisation of debt governance, and the prioritisation of people’s dignity above creditors’ profit margins.
 
For Sri Lanka – and for countless other countries across Africa, Asia, and Latin America – this may be the most urgent and necessary restructuring of all.
 
* Anuka Vimuthi Silva is a small-scale farmer from Sri Lanka and is a member of the Movement for Land and Agricultural Reform (MONLAR) and La Via Campesina. Amali Wedagedara is a Senior Researcher at the Bandaranaike Centre for International Studies (BCIS), Colombo, Sri Lanka
 
June 2025 (Columbia University-Initiative for Policy Dialogue, Caritas)
 
A new report by world-leading experts on debt and development calls for urgent action and systemic reforms to tackle the escalating debt and development crises affecting billions worldwide.
 
“The Jubilee Report: A Blueprint for Tackling the Debt and Development Crises and Creating the Financial Foundations for a Sustainable People-Centered Global Economy,” is authored by Pope Francis’ Jubilee Commission — a group of over 30 leading global experts led by Nobel laureate and Columbia University Professor Joseph Stiglitz and Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs Professor Martín Guzman.
 
The report follows Pope Francis’ repeated calls for global debt relief, which are now being carried forward by Pope Leo XIV, and brings together for the first time a combination of sound economic expertise with the moral responsibility to act.
 
The report powerfully shows that the debt crisis plaguing our global financial system is also fueling a development crisis. Fifty-four developing countries now spend 10% or more of their tax revenues just on interest payments.
 
Across the developing world, average interest burdens have nearly doubled in the past decade. This diverts resources away from essential investments in health, education, infrastructure, and climate resilience -depriving millions of life-saving care, nutrition and employment. This does not have to be the case: Solutions exist that are both economically sound and beneficial to all.
 
As global market uncertainty grows and refinancing options diminish for debt-distressed nations, this report charts a bold and practical path forward, arguing that, through shared responsibility we can avoid a lost decade for development and climate action and instead support economic recovery and long-term development.
 
The report presents a moral and practical vision: that global finance should serve people and the planet — not punish the poor to protect profits.
 
http://ipdcolumbia.org/publication/jubilee-debt-development-blueprint/ http://www.caritas.org/2025/06/why-the-jubilee-report-calls-for-a-rethink-of-global-debt/ http://www.caritas.org/2025/07/church-groups-say-more-action-needed-on-global-debt-crisis/ http://www.cidse.org/2025/06/03/new-cidse-policy-brief-calls-for-debt-relief-as-cornerstone-of-climate-justice/ http://www.cidse.org/2025/06/27/from-bonn-to-belem-wheres-the-justice-in-climate-action/ http://www.oxfam.org/en/research/private-profit-public-power-financing-development-not-oligarchy
 
June 2025
 
United Nations Secretary-General launches report to break “the cycle of debt distress”. (UN News)
 
The United Nations Secretary-General has presented new recommendations–Confronting the Debt Crisis: 11 Actions to Unlock Sustainable Financing–that aim to break the cycle of debt distress and lay the foundation for unlocking long-term, affordable financing that supports sustainable development.
 
With two-thirds of low-income countries now at high risk of—or already in—debt distress, the report highlights a growing crisis: soaring debt service costs are crowding out vital investments in education, health, and climate resilience.
 
“The current global debt system is unsustainable, unfair and unaffordable, with many governments spending more on debt payments than on essentials like health and education combined,” said the Secretary-General. “These 11 immediately actionable proposals can help address the debt crisis, empower borrower countries, and create a fairer system.”
 
Prepared by the UN Secretary-General’s Expert Group on Debt, the report reinforces the commitments put forward in the FfD4 Outcome Document and makes the case that an end to the debt crisis is entirely feasible—if opportunities are seized.
 
http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2025/06/ffd4-press-release-sg-report-2025 http://news.un.org/en/story/2025/06/1165051
 
Oct. 2024
 
The international financial system is failing to address the catastrophic debt crisis, by Olivier De Schutter - UN Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights
 
The international financial system is failing to address the catastrophic debt crisis that is engulfing developing countries and causing misery for hundreds of millions of people, the UN’s poverty expert said today.
 
“The debt crisis is not just a fiscal issue; it is a full-blown human rights crisis,” said the UN Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights, Olivier De Schutter, on the International Day for the Eradication of Poverty.
 
“In the poorest countries of the world people are struggling to eat, access health services or send their children to school, while their governments shell out billions of dollars to pay back loans to wealthy creditors.
 
“Making a bad situation worse, countries with the highest levels of debt also tend to be those most vulnerable to climate change, but are being forced to prioritise debt repayments over addressing the severe consequences of the climate crisis.”
 
The expert warned that rocketing interest rates since the Covid-19 pandemic were sinking countries in the Global South further into debt.
 
In 2023, a record 54 developing countries allocated 10% or more of government revenue to paying off the interest on their debt, leaving “little room for countries to spend on poverty-busting public services such as education or social protection”.
 
3.3 billion people live in countries that spend more on interest payments than on either education or health. Interest rates demanded from developing countries are also much higher than those paid by rich countries. African countries borrow money at almost four times the rate paid by the United States, despite the astronomical level of US debt.
 
“This perverse scenario has been playing out in the Global South for years, accelerating the freefall into poverty seen since the pandemic,” De Schutter said.
 
“Creditors have responded too little, too late. The G20’s ‘Common Framework’, agreed in 2020 to bring international financing institutions (IFIs), individual states and private lenders together to speed up debt restructuring, is simply not working.”
 
De Schutter called for immediate debt relief for countries in crisis and urgent reform of the international financial system to align with human rights.
 
“Banks and hedge funds have become huge players in the world of sovereign debt and should not be exempt from their human rights responsibilities. It is abhorrent that debt repayments to the world’s richest corporations are being paid at the expense of children’s education or healthcare. Governments must introduce legislation to compel private creditors under their jurisdiction to participate in debt relief for low income countries.
 
“Comprehensive reform of the international financial architecture, as advocated by the recently agreed Pact of the Future, is also needed. The current system within the IFIs, characterised by unequal representation between high and low-income countries, unfavourable lending conditions, and unfair debt restructuring is trapping too many countries in a cycle of poverty.”
 
The Special Rapporteur lamented the conditions attached to bailout packages from IFIs which, with their demands for austerity measures, sale of state assets and, at times, surcharges already denounced by UN human rights experts, make it near impossible for states to comply with their human rights obligations and lock countries into unsustainable growth patterns that have only worsened poverty and inequality.
 
“With Pakistan recently agreeing to its 24th bailout from the International Monetary Fund, which hinged on the country accepting what the Prime Minister called ‘conditions beyond imagination’, it is clear that people in poverty will continue to pay the high price of a debt crisis that is not of their making,” the expert said.
 
“The solution to the debt crisis is neither to stimulate economic growth at all costs, nor to impose austerity policies. It is to cancel or restructure debt, and to focus on public investment, particularly in social protection, that will restore the prospect of long-term prosperity.”
 
http://www.srpoverty.org/2024/10/17/statement-international-financial-system-not-fit-for-purpose-to-address-catastrophic-debt-crisis-un-poverty-expert/ http://www.srpoverty.org http://www.ohchr.org/en/special-procedures/sr-poverty http://www.ohchr.org/en/documents/thematic-reports/ahrc5851-understanding-landscape-climate-finance-debt-tax-and-illicit http://www.ohchr.org/en/special-procedures/ie-foreign-debt/annual-thematic-reports http://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/news/overlooking-nature-is-no-longer-an-option-for-fiscal-policy-and-debt-sustainability-analyses/ http://reliefweb.int/report/world/human-cost-public-sector-cuts-africa-april-2025 http://actionaid.org/publications/2025/human-cost-public-cuts-africa http://www.ipsnews.net/2025/01/developing-countries-choked-debt-year-breaking-free/ http://debtjustice.org.uk/press-release/lower-income-country-debt-payments-hit-highest-level-in-30-years http://debtjustice.org.uk/news http://cafod.org.uk/campaign/the-new-debt-crisis http://tinyurl.com/y45jmkdd http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2025/06/ffd4-press-release-sg-report-2025/ http://unctad.org/publication/world-of-debt http://www.eurodad.org/debt_justice http://www.eurodad.org/key_publications_2024


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