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	Price Shocks: Rising food prices impacting the most vulnerable by World Vision, International Rescue Committee   Oct. 2022   Price Shocks: Rising food prices impact lives across the world. (World Vision Report)   Conflict, climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the economic effects of the Ukraine crisis are interacting to create new and worsen existing hunger hotspots, reversing the gains families had made to escape poverty.   In 2021, we saw the beginnings of an unparalleled global hunger crisis driven by conflict, climate change, and the ongoing impacts of COVID-19. Even as COVID-19 mitigation measures ease worldwide, the lingering effects of the pandemic continue to be disproportionately felt by struggling families in the poorest countries, contributing to increasing socioeconomic disparity around the world.   Since the outbreak of conflict in Ukraine in February 2022, spiralling food, fuel, and fertiliser prices have compounded these factors globally, leaving people even further behind and exacerbating existing humanitarian crises. We now see unprecedented needs and entire regions on the brink of a hunger catastrophe. The lives of millions of hungry children are teetering on the edge.   While some economies have bounced back from the economic crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, the effects are still being felt by the poorest. Recovery is especially challenging for countries burdened with conflict, those experiencing severe weather patterns, and where social safety nets are lacking. This is made more difficult still by skyrocketing food prices, with some countries seeing double digit increases.   Even though global food prices have declined slightly since May, they are still at historic levels and food costs remain abnormally high, particularly in countries where people are experiencing a food crisis.   A worldwide look at the state of food prices compared with national gross domestic products (GDPs) reinforces a story of uneven recovery. Higher income countries show greater resilience post-pandemic, because they were able to afford to procure vaccines and tests, provide health care, implement policies to enable extra government spending to kick start economic recovery, and as a result started building back earlier.   Middle and lower-income countries were also put at a disadvantage by the lopsided vaccine roll-outs. Rich countries reserved excess vaccines and hoarded doses, preventing others from purchasing until months after their citizens were already double vaccinated.   Despite the World Health Organization (WHO) or a stringent regulatory authority approving 10 vaccines within the first two years of the pandemic declaration and more than 10 billion doses being administered, distribution was uneven, with the richest countries vaccinated 10 times faster than those with the poorest.   This disparity in ability to ensure economic resilience exacerbates pre-existing inequalities in a new, devastating way and continues to jeopardise people’s access to nutrition, leaving many countries at famine’s doorstep.   While global food prices began to decline somewhat in May 2022, they are still at historic levels and food costs remain astronomical. These modest decreases are a product of seasonal factors and are often not being felt on the ground, particularly in countries where people are experiencing a food crisis. As a result, the number of people in need of life-saving food assistance continues to grow rapidly while the magnitude of this crisis is beyond many countries’ capacities to cope, widening the gap between humanitarian needs and resources.   The pandemic’s role in exacerbating the global hunger crisis is at risk of being forgotten. Vaccines have reduced the risk of severe illness and death, yet the socioeconomic impacts of the pandemic linger on, and the fallout continues to disproportionately impact the most defenceless.   The economic downturn caused by the pandemic was felt globally, but its impacts were most concentrated amongst the world’s poorest. Lasting economic impacts expose socioeconomic inequality through the uneven rate of recovery across and within countries. The indirect impacts of the pandemic were especially felt by populations that rely on farming to feed their families.   Measures to contain and mitigate the virus closed movement across borders, halted trade, and blocked access to pasture, which undermined farmers’ abilities to feed their families and themselves.   Some of the sharpest food price increases were experienced by populations relying on imports, including in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Latin America, the Caribbean, and sub-Saharan Africa. In sub-Saharan Africa, most food is from outside the continent, making up 85% of its consumption between 2016 and 2018.   All regions experienced cutbacks on employment and income opportunities amidst food price shocks during COVID-19, making food unaffordable for the poorest. Given the multi-wave nature of the COVID-19 crisis, we have not seen the last economic aftershocks of the pandemic.   Countries already overwhelmed by the realities of extreme climate and social tensions will continue to struggle to avert the imminent hunger crisis. Additionally, efforts to keep inflation low in wealthy countries are triggering inflation of local currencies and spikes in food prices elsewhere. The value of the US dollar is rising; so too are the costs of fuel, medicine, and food in countries like Somalia and Nigeria, where starvation already looms.   * In 2021, World Vision published its first survey on the damaging impact of rising food prices on families in the Asia Pacific, Latin America, the Caribbean, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and sub-Saharan Africa. In a follow-up survey conducted between 2 August and 17 September 2022 across 37 countries, World Vision looked at the lingering impacts of the pandemic, rising food costs, worsening hunger and what this means for the most vulnerable.   http://www.wvi.org/publications/hunger-crisis/price-shocks-rising-food-prices-threaten-lives-thousands-children   Oct. 2022   Care International raises alarm over the impacts of the reduction in the use of fertilizers by small farmers due high costs, and the subsequent reduction in crop outputs and the negative future implications for food security:   http://reliefweb.int/report/world/crisis-we-can-still-avert-potential-human-cost-agriculture-losses-2022   Oct. 2022 (International Rescue Committee)   All around the globe, everyday goods and services are getting more expensive. Rising costs are making life more difficult for many as they struggle to afford necessities such as groceries, gasoline and rent.   A rising cost of living causes pain even in wealthy countries. In regions already facing conflict, natural disasters or other crises, the results can be catastrophic. We highlight five countries where severe cost-of-living increases have led to humanitarian crises.   Afghanistan’s cost-of-living crisis   Since the shift in power in Afghanistan in August 2021, the country has experienced near economic collapse and a worsening humanitarian crisis. Policies meant to isolate the Taliban by cutting off Afghanistan from the international financial system have crippled the national economy. While less money is flowing into Afghanistan, prices for basic household items rose 50 percent, while prices of food staples like grain and rice nearly doubled in 2021.   Afghanistan has experienced near economic collapse and a worsening humanitarian crisis so severe that it could kill more people than the last 20 years of war.   Forty-three percent of the population lives on less than a meal a day, while 97 percent could soon be living below the poverty line. Access to health care is becoming more strained, leaving 12 million people unable to obtain critical services.   Afghanistan also abruptly lost large portions of foreign aid after the change in power, equivalent to about a 40 percent loss of the country’s GDP.   Lebanon’s cost-of-living crisis   One of the most severe inflation crises ever recorded has led to economic collapse in Lebanon. All people living in Lebanon: Lebanese, migrants and the 1.5 million Syrian refugees seeking safety there are struggling to afford basic needs. In some cases, they are not even able access their own money from the banking system.   Lebanon is facing one of the world's most severe economic crises; the Lebanese pound has lost 95 percent of its value.   Over the last few years, Lebanon’s GDP has shrunk from $55 billion in 2018 to just $20.5 billion in 2021. The Lebanese pound has lost 95 percent of its value.   The price of goods has risen while the value of wages has fallen, forcing consumers to turn to the black market for fuel and medicine. The 2020 explosion of a large amount of improperly stored ammonium nitrate at the Port of Beirut worsened the crisis, causing $3.8–$4.6 billion in damage.   With inflation at 162.47 percent in September, poverty rates have sky-rocketed. One UN report found that nearly three quarters of the population were experiencing poverty. Refugees are particularly affected; nearly half of all Syrian families in Lebanon are food insecure.   Pakistan’s cost of living crisis   Pakistan was approaching a cost-of-living crisis even before the devastating floods. This climate-induced disaster pushed the country over the brink and will necessitate a long-term economic recovery. The country is facing its highest inflation rate in decades. Meanwhile, the domestic currency continues to depreciate and foreign reserves are running low.   The recent flooding, which submerged one-third of the country, exacerbated the situation with well over $10 billion in damages. Around 3.6 million acres of crops and over 1.1 million livestock were destroyed. The damages to Pakistan's agricultural industry will depress both earnings and the availability of food, increasing hunger in a country already facing a shortage of wheat due to the conflict in Ukraine.   In the short term, the country needs help to rebuild and families need assistance to secure basic needs such as food and shelter.   Somalia’s cost-of-living crisis   The economic fallout from the Ukraine war and a series of climate-induced disasters have left Somalia on the brink of famine.   Even when food is made available, the depreciation of the Somali shilling and growing inflation has made it more difficult for Somalis to afford it.   For nearly six months, war prevented Ukraine from shipping grain through their primary trade routes in the Black Sea. Somalia, which historically imports 92 percent of its grain from Ukraine, suffered a sharp rise in malnutrition rates.   Somalia is also highly vulnerable to climate shocks and is one of the countries most impacted by climate change, despite contributing less than 0.1% of global CO2 emissions. The country has been experiencing extreme drought and has entered its fifth consecutive failed rain season. Consequently, crop yields are failing en masse while herders struggle to keep their animals alive through tough conditions.   Even when food is made available, the depreciation of the Somali shilling and growing inflation has made it more difficult for Somalis to afford it. Since April, the number of people in Somalia facing famine conditions has increased by 160 percent. More than half a million children below the age of 5 are expected to suffer from severe malnourishment this year.   Venezuela’s cost-of-living crisis   Since 2014, Venezuela has been facing one of the sharpest economic collapses ever seen. Hyperinflation has caused the price of food and other basic goods to soar, leading to a humanitarian crisis that has forced more than 7.1 million people to leave the country. Those who remained in Venezuela saw their national economy shrink by two-thirds between 2014 and 2020.   Approximately one in four Venezuelans were in need of humanitarian aid in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic worsened the country’s economic struggles. Today, that number is likely higher.   Although the Venezuelan economy is seeing some signs of recovery, the damage caused by almost a decade of economic unraveling will continue to affect the country. Struggles to access medical care are exacerbating resurging outbreaks of cholera and malaria.   Meanwhile, Venezuelans looking to rebuild their lives in other countries, mainly Colombia, Ecuador and Peru, continue to live under financial duress and face challenges like xenophobia and hurdles to integration.   Of the 7.1 million Venezuelans displaced abroad, an estimated 3.5 million are in need of food assistance. Many of these countries face their own developmental challenges and are also still reeling from the impacts of the pandemic.   http://www.rescue.org/article/what-cost-living-crisis-looks-around-world http://www.rescue.org/article/top-10-crises-world-cant-ignore-2023
	Decarbonising the energy system will save trillions by UN News, University of Oxford, agencies   Nov. 2022   We must have zero tolerance for net-zero greenwashing. (UN News)   While a growing number of governments and non-State actors are pledging to be carbon-free, the criteria for net-zero commitments can have loopholes wide enough to “drive a diesel truck through”, the UN Secretary-General decried as his expert group on the matter published its first report on Tuesday.   The report slams greenwashing – misleading the public to believe that a company or entity is doing more to protect the environment than it is – and weak net-zero pledges and provides a roadmap to bring integrity to net-zero commitments by industry, financial institutions, cities and regions and to support a global, equitable transition to a sustainable future.   According to the experts, actors cannot claim to be ‘net zero’ while continuing to build or invest in new fossil fuel supply or any kind of environmentally destructive activities. They can’t also participate or have their partners participate in lobbying activities against climate change or just report on one part of their business's assets while hiding the rest.   “We must have zero tolerance for net-zero greenwashing. Today’s Expert Group report is a guide to ensure credible, accountable net-zero pledges,” António Guterres said at the launch at the report at COP27.   Last year at COP26 in Glasgow, Mr. Guterres announced that he would appoint an Expert Group to address a ‘surplus of confusion and deficit of credibility’ over net-zero targets of non-State entities. The group’s first report is the result of intense work and consultations over seven months and reflects the best advice of the 17 experts selected by the UN chief.   Through 10 practical recommendations, the report provides clarity in four key areas as defined by the Secretary-General: environmental integrity; credibility; accountability; and the role of governments.   The report’s recommendations, as explained by the UN chief   1. Promises cannot be a ‘toxic cover-up’   According to the report, net-zero pledges must in line with the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios limiting warming to 1.5 degrees.   “That means global emissions must decline by at least 45 per cent by 2030 – and reach net zero by 2050. Pledges should have interim targets every five years starting in 2025,” the Secretary-General explained.   The targets must also cover all greenhouse emissions and all their scopes. For financial institutions this means all of their finance activities, and for businesses and cities it means all emissions – direct, indirect and those originating from supply chains.   “The message is clear to all those managing existing voluntary initiatives – as well as CEOs, mayors and governors committing to net-zero: Abide by this standard and update your guidelines right away – and certainly no later than COP28,” Mr. Guterres underscored.   The UN chief also sent a strong message to fossil fuel companies and their “financial enablers” that have pledges that exclude core products and activities poisoning the planet and urged them to review their promises and align them with the report’s guidance.   “Using bogus ‘net-zero’ pledges to cover up massive fossil fuel expansion is reprehensible. It is rank deception. This toxic cover-up could push our world over the climate cliff. The sham must end”   2. Plans must be detailed and concrete   Mr. Guterres said that net-zero pledges should be accompanied by a plan for how the transition is being made. “Management must be accountable for delivering on these pledges. This means publicly advocating for decisive climate action and disclosing all lobbying activity,” he said, adding that the absence of standards, regulations and rigor in voluntary carbon market credits is deeply concerning.   Also, the pledges must detail how the transition will address the needs of workers in fossil fuel industries and sectors affected by the renewable energy transition.   The report also provides clarity and details on what businesses, financial institutions, and sub-national authorities need to do to phase out coal, oil and gas.   3. The promises must be accountable and transparent   The Secretary-General called on all net-zero voluntary initiatives to accelerate efforts to standardize progress reports, in an open format and via public platforms that feed the UN Climate Change’s Global Climate Action Portal.   “We must work together to fill gaps from the lack of universally recognized credible third-party authorities – and we must strengthen mechanisms positioned to conduct this verification and accountability process,” he explained.   4. Voluntary initiatives need to become a new normal   Finally, the UN chief said that governments need to ensure that the now voluntary initiatives become a “new normal”.   “I urge all government leaders to provide non-State entities with a level playing field to transition to a just, net-zero future. Solving the climate crisis requires strong political leadership,” he underscored, reiterating that developed countries also need to accelerate their decarbonization and lead by example.   Secretary-General António Guterres at the launched of the Expert Group on Net-Zero Commitments. On the left is Catherine McKenna, chair of the group.   The report comes in a year in which the world has been plagued by an energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as seemingly nonstop climate impacts like the unprecedented flooding in Pakistan and crippling drought in the US.   Currently over 80 per cent of global emissions are covered by net-zero pledges.   “Right now, the planet cannot afford delays, excuses, or more greenwashing,” said former Canadian Minister Catherine Mckenna, chairman of the High-Level Expert Group. She explained that in such a crucial time, making net-zero pledges is about cutting emissions, not corners.   Ms. Mckenna congratulated some actors that are making strides, such as companies investing in innovation, investors moving their money from dirty to clean, and cities changing their energy grid to renewables.   “But the bad news is that too many of the net-zero pledges are... little more than empty slogans and hype,” she argued. “Why is greenwashing so bad? In part, because the stakes are so high. It’s not just advertising, bogus net-zero claims drive up the cost that ultimately everyone would pay. Including people not in this room, through huge impact, climate migration and their very lives”.   http://news.un.org/en/story/2022/11/1130317 http://climatetrace.org/news/more-than-70000-of-the-highest-emitting-greenhouse-gas http://climateactiontracker.org/publications/global-reaction-to-energy-crisis-risks-zero-carbon-transition/ http://climateactiontracker.org/publications/massive-gas-expansion-risks-overtaking-positive-climate-policies/ http://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/fossil-gas/636-fossil-fuel-lobbyists-granted-access-cop27/ http://www.carbonbrief.org/new-fossil-fuels-incompatible-with-1-5c-goal-comprehensive-analysis-finds/ http://www.bankingonclimatechaos.org/ http://www.iccr.org/shareholders-file-multiple-proposals-us-banks-seeking-advance-climate-forward-lending-policies http://www.urgewald.org/en/medien/ngos-release-2022-global-oil-gas-exit-list-industry-willing-sacrifice-livable-planet http://fossilfueltreaty.org/   Sep. 2022   Decarbonising the energy system will save trillions - Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford   Transitioning to a decarbonised energy system by around 2050 is expected to save the world at least $12 trillion compared to continuing our current levels of fossil fuel use.   For decades, scientists have called for a transition to clean energy to prevent the worst impacts of climate change but fears that such a transition would be costly and harm the economy have held back progress. However, a study from the Oxford Martin Programme on the Post-Carbon Transition published in Joule shows the reverse: an ambitious, decisive transition to green energy technologies such as solar, wind, and batteries, will likely save the world significant sums of money.   The research shows a win-win-win scenario, in which a transition to nearly 100% clean energy by 2050 results in lower energy system costs than a fossil fuel system, while providing more energy to the global economy, and expanding energy access to more people around the world.   This result is based purely on the economics of different energy technologies, even without accounting for the costs of climate damages and climate adaptation that would be avoided by such an energy transition.   Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the costs of fossil energy have skyrocketed, causing inflation around the world. This study, conducted before the current crisis, takes account of such fluctuations using over a century’s worth of fossil fuel price data. The current energy crisis underscores the study’s findings and demonstrates the risks of continuing to rely on expensive, insecure, fossil fuels.   The research confirms that the response to the crisis should include accelerating the transition to low cost, clean energy as soon as possible, as this will bring benefits both for the economy and the planet.   "There is a pervasive misconception that switching to clean, green energy will be painful, costly and mean sacrifices for us all – but that’s just wrong," says Professor Doyne Farmer.   "Renewable costs have been trending down for decades. They are already cheaper than fossil fuels in many situations, and our research shows that they will become cheaper than fossil fuels across almost all applications in the years to come. And if we accelerate the transition, they will become cheaper faster. Completely replacing fossil fuels with clean energy by around 2050 will save us trillions."   For decades, standard models got clean energy costs consistently wrong. The researchers analysed thousands of transition cost scenarios produced by major energy models and found that the real cost of solar energy dropped twice as fast as the most ambitious projections in these models. Over 20 years all of these models consistently overestimated the future costs of key clean energy technologies versus reality.   The Oxford team used a different approach, developing a ‘probabilistic model’ to estimate the costs of possible future energy systems more accurately based on past data. Probabilistic models are used widely throughout industry and research to estimate the likelihood of future events.   In prior work, the Oxford team showed it could ‘get the odds right’ in its probabilistic forecasts of energy technology costs. It tested the forecasting method against decades of historical data for 50 different technologies, using a technique called backtesting, which is routinely used in the financial industry.   The data used in this study includes 45 years of solar energy costs, 37 years of wind energy costs and 25 years for battery storage. Using probabilistic models, this study shows that the probability of further cost reductions in key green energy technologies is now so high that our best bet is to push ahead rapidly with the energy transition.   A common objection to scenarios for a rapid transition to net-zero carbon is the need for large amounts of energy storage to handle intermittent renewables. The study showed that the costs for key storage technologies, such as batteries and hydrogen electrolysis, are also likely to fall dramatically. Meanwhile, the costs of nuclear have consistently increased over the last five decades, making it highly unlikely to be cost competitive with plunging renewable and storage costs.   The study’s ‘Fast Transition’ scenario shows a realistic future of a near fossil-free energy system by 2050, providing 55% more energy services globally than today, with large amounts of wind, solar, batteries, electric vehicles, and clean fuels such as green hydrogen (made from renewable electricity).   Such a net-zero carbon future is not only technically feasible, but the research shows it is expected to cost the world $12 trillion less than continuing with the polluting fossil fuel-based system we have today.   Lead author Dr Rupert Way said, "Past models predicting high costs for transitioning to zero carbon energy have deterred companies from investing and made governments nervous about setting policies that will accelerate the green transition and cut reliance on fossil fuels. But past models have overestimated key green technology costs again and again, leaving modellers to play catch up as real world costs plunged over the last decade.   Only a few years ago, net zero by 2050 was believed to be so expensive that it was barely considered credible, yet now even the most pessimistic models concede that it’s entirely within reach. Our research goes further and shows that scaling up key green technologies is likely to drive their costs down so far that overall they generate net cost savings, and the faster we go, the more we will save. Accelerating the transition to renewable energy is now the best bet not just for the planet, but for energy costs too."   Professor Farmer adds, "The world is facing a simultaneous inflation crisis, national security crisis, and climate crisis, all caused by our dependence on high cost, insecure, polluting, fossil fuels with volatile prices. This study shows that ambitious policies to dramatically accelerate the transition to a clean energy future as quickly as possible are not only urgently needed for climate reasons, but can save the world trillions in future energy costs, giving us a cleaner, cheaper, more energy secure future."   http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/news/decarbonise-energy-to-save-trillions/   July 2022   UNRISD 2022 Flagship Report: Crises of Inequality: Shifting Power for a New Eco-Social Contract.   There is perhaps no stronger evidence of the pressing need to redesign our global system than the fact that a global health crisis doubled the wealth of the 10 richest men in the world while sending upwards of 120 million people into extreme poverty.   This UNRISD Flagship Report shows how inequalities and crises reinforce and compound each other, leading to extreme disparity, vulnerability and unsustainability. It argues that this is not the result of a broken system but one in which inequality and injustice are built in by design. The social contract has broken down to the great detriment of people and planet.   The report associates the multiple crises and increasing inequalities we are facing with policy choices promoted during the age of neoliberal hyperglobalization. It unpacks the implications for sustainable development and for disadvantaged social groups through the lenses of intersectionality and power.   To address inequality, break the cycle of multiple and interlocking crises, and work towards a more equal, just and sustainable future, the report proposes the creation of a new eco-social contract and a policy approach based on alternative economies, transformative social policies, and reimagined multilateralism and strengthened solidarities.   http://www.unrisd.org/en/library/publications/crises-of-inequality http://cdn.unrisd.org/assets/library/reports/preview-unrisd-flagship-report-2022.pdf http://www.unrisd.org/en/library/blogs-think-pieces http://www.solidar.org/news-and-statements/a-post-growth-europe-critical-to-survive-and-thrive/ http://www.ips-journal.eu/topics/economy-and-ecology/grappling-with-power-imbalances-6299/ Visit the related web page
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