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	Multiple threats are converging to leave families reeling by Jasmina Byrne Chief of Policy, UNICEF Innocenti – Global Office of Research and Foresight   Feb. 2023   2022 was incredibly difficult for people around the world. We were confronted by a series of major crises, including a continuing pandemic, a major war in Europe, an energy crisis, rising inflation and food insecurity.   These events hit children particularly hard, compounding the already severe impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Millions of children had to flee their homes because of conflict or extreme weather events. At the same time, child malnutrition and the number of children in need of humanitarian assistance rose.   The war in Ukraine, for example, has led to higher food and energy prices, which in turn has contributed to rising global hunger and inflation.   Efforts to address inflation through rising interest rates in the US have driven up the value of the dollar against other currencies, making developing countries’ imports, debt repayments and their ability to access external financing more difficult.   As we explain in our new report, ‘Prospects for Children in the Polycrisis: A 2023 Global Outlook’, these realities have added up to what has been termed a ‘polycrisis’ – multiple, simultaneous crises that are strongly interdependent.   As we look to 2023, it’s clear that the polycrisis is likely to continue shaping children’s lives. The effects of these intertwined and far-reaching trends will be difficult to untangle, and solutions will be difficult to find as policymakers struggle to keep up with multiple urgent needs.   The situation is particularly dire in economically developing countries. Higher food and energy prices have contributed to a rise in global hunger and malnourishment, with children among the most affected.   The polycrisis is also limiting access to healthcare for many children, making it harder for them to receive treatment and routine vaccinations. Recovery from learning losses caused by the closure of schools will be slow and felt for years to come, while the shift to remote learning has left children from low-income families facing the greatest challenges in catching up.   At the same time, the combination of higher financing needs, soaring inflation and a tighter fiscal outlook will widen the education financing gap needed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.   Climate change, too, is also a part of this polycrisis, with visible effects, including devastating floods in Pakistan and droughts in East Africa, making it harder for children to access education, food and healthcare, and causing widespread displacement of populations.   All these factors have led UNICEF to estimate that 300 million children will be in need of humanitarian assistance this year. This staggering number highlights the urgency for international organizations and governments to step in and provide assistance.   But the polycrisis doesn’t have to lead to further instability or, ultimately, systemic breakdown. Some of the stresses we saw in 2022 have weakened somewhat, and new opportunities may arise to alleviate the situation. For example, food and oil prices have dropped from their peaks, and good harvests in some countries may help to lower global food prices.   Fortunately, we know there are solutions and strategies that work. One potential solution is to increase investment in social protection programmes, such as cash transfers and food assistance, which can help alleviate the immediate economic impacts of the polycrisis on families. These programmes can also help to build resilience and reduce vulnerabilities.   The establishment of learning recovery programmes will help tackle the learning losses and prevent children from falling further behind. And early prevention, detection and treatment plans for severe child malnutrition have been effective in reducing child wasting.   Ultimately, a coordinated and collective effort is needed to protect the rights and well-being of children. This includes not only providing immediate assistance but also addressing the underlying causes of the polycrisis and building resilience for the future.   This cannot be achieved without a more coordinated and collective effort from international organizations and governments to help mitigate the effects of the polycrisis and protect children's futures.   And, crucially, we must listen to children and young people themselves so that we can understand the future they want to build and live in.   In fact, we followed this approach when we were assessing trends for ‘Prospects for Children in the Polycrisis’, asking young people from across the world age 16 to 29 to give us their views on some of the challenges their generation faces.   It’s critical that we take action to protect the most vulnerable among us. The future may be uncertain, but by working together we can help to build a better future for our children.   * Prospects for Children in the Polycrisis: A 2023 Global Outlook: http://uni.cf/3JIDDwt   * This brief from the Global Coalition to End Child Poverty highlights the urgency of tackling child poverty and the growing vulnerability of many children around the world due to the COVID-19 pandemic, climate crisis, conflict, and economic instability (10/22): http://www.endchildhoodpoverty.org/publications-feed/2022/10/11/briefing-paper http://www.wfp.org/stories/child-malnutrition-mounts-un-agencies-issue-call-action   Feb. 2023   Multiple crises unleash one of the lowest global economic outputs in recent decades, says UN report. (UNCTAD)   A series of severe and mutually reinforcing shocks — the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and resulting food and energy crises, surging inflation, debt tightening, as well as the climate emergency — battered the world economy in 2022. Against this backdrop, world output growth is projected to decelerate from an estimated 3.0 per cent in 2022 to 1.9 per cent in 2023, marking one of the lowest growth rates in recent decades, according to the United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2023.   The report presents a gloomy and uncertain economic outlook for the near term. Global growth is forecast to moderately pick up to 2.7 per cent in 2024 as some of the headwinds will begin to subside. However, this is highly dependent on the pace and sequence of further monetary tightening, the course and consequences of the war in Ukraine, and the possibility of further supply-chain disruptions.   The tepid global economic prospects also threaten the achievement of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), when the 2023 SDG Summit in September marks the mid-point of the implementation of the 2030 Agenda.   “This is not the time for short-term thinking or knee-jerk fiscal austerity that exacerbates inequality, increases suffering and could put the SDGs farther out of reach. These unprecedented times demand unprecedented action,” said Antonio Guterres, United Nations Secretary-General. “This action includes a transformative SDG stimulus package, generated through the collective and concerted efforts of all stakeholders,” he added.   Amid high inflation, aggressive monetary tightening and heightened uncertainties, the current downturn has slowed the pace of economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis, threatening several countries — both developed and developing — with the prospects of recession in 2023. Growth momentum significantly weakened in the United States, the European Union and other developed economies in 2022, adversely impacting the rest of the global economy through a number of channels.   Tightening global financial conditions coupled with a strong dollar exacerbated fiscal and debt vulnerabilities in developing countries. Over 85 per cent of central banks worldwide tightened monetary policy and raised interest rates in quick succession since late 2021, to tame inflationary pressures and avoid a recession. Global inflation which reached a multi-decade high of about 9 per cent in 2022 is projected to ease but remain elevated at 6.5 per cent in 2023.   Weaker job recovery and rising poverty   Most developing countries have seen a slower job recovery in 2022 and continue to face considerable employment slack. Disproportionate losses in women’s employment during the initial phase of the pandemic have not been fully reversed, with improvements mainly arising from a recovery in informal jobs.   According to the report, slower growth, coupled with elevated inflation and mounting debt vulnerabilities, threatens to further set back hard-won achievements in sustainable development, deepening the already negative effects of the current crises. Already in 2022, the number of people facing acute food insecurity had more than doubled compared to 2019, reaching almost 350 million.   A prolonged period of economic weakness and slow income growth would not only hamper poverty eradication but also constrain countries’ ability to invest in the SDGs more broadly.   “The current crises are hitting the most vulnerable the hardest — often through no fault of their own. The global community needs to step up joint efforts to avert human suffering and support an inclusive and sustainable future for all,” said Li Junhua, United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs.   The report calls for Governments to avoid fiscal austerity which would stifle growth and disproportionately affect the most vulnerable groups, affect progress in gender equality and stymie development prospects across generations. It recommends reallocation and reprioritization of public expenditures through direct policy interventions that will create jobs and reinvigorate growth. This will require strengthening of social protection systems, ensuring continued support through cash transfers, and discounts on utility bills, which can be complemented with reductions in consumption taxes or custom duties.   Strategic public investments in education, health, digital infrastructure, new technologies and climate change mitigation and adaptation can offer large social returns, accelerate productivity growth, and strengthen resilience to economic, social and environmental shocks.   Stronger international commitment is urgently needed to expand access to emergency financial assistance; to restructure and reduce debt burdens across developing countries; and scale up SDG financing.   http://unctad.org/news/multiple-crises-unleash-one-lowest-global-economic-outputs-recent-decades-says-un-report http://desapublications.un.org/publications/world-economic-situation-and-prospects-2023 Visit the related web page
	African leaders need to increase support for agriculture and smallholder farmers by Africa Renewal, 350 Africa, agencies   May 2023   Start paying attention to the resource that feeds the poor: Nature, by Maxwell Gomera. (UNDP)   Over the past three years, a cost-of-living crisis has spread across the world, affecting both rich and poor countries. Many are blaming it on the economic shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In Africa, these events have had an impact, but the growing impoverishment was already apparent even before they occurred.   Across the continent, the cost-of-living crisis has hit hard communities that were already struggling to access enough food, fuel, decent work and social support to survive. The already poor have been getting poorer; those living just above the poverty line have been sinking below it. Since the pandemic, 55 million more Africans have fallen into extreme poverty.   Much of this impoverishment is driven by the long-term decline in the natural resources that sustain poor households. The degradation of soils, freshwater, forests and biodiversity is directly affecting the livelihoods of millions of poor people living in rural areas. This is because these resources provide food, fuel, building materials and employment to these communities.   According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, some 90 percent of people who live in extreme poverty depend on forests for at least part of their livelihoods. And in recent years, deforestation – as well as other types of environmental degradation – has only accelerated. This trend did not change even during the pandemic.   Yet, the primary response from governments in Africa has been a continued emphasis on conventional economic growth. The problem with this approach is that it fixates on gross domestic product (GDP) as the sole barometer of economic progress, which does not take into account the wealth contained in nature and ecosystems.   This myopic focus encourages policies and investments that disproportionately favour the wealthy while leaving behind the poor and allowing the abuse and depletion of natural resources they depend on.   Instead, what African policymakers should focus on the natural environment which sustains the poor and without which they cannot survive the rising cost of living – or any future crises for that matter.   Governments need to take action to curb environmental degradation which is rendering natural resources scarcer and less resilient. And to do that, they need to change the way they measure progress and growth. They need to embrace the GDP of the poor: nature.   They need to put it at the centre of their policymaking when it comes to big business, including agriculture, industry and finance. The revenue these businesses generate for public budgets cannot outweigh the negative effects they have on the environment and the economic losses they cause.   What is more, taking action to preserve the environment often costs less than supporting large polluting businesses to ensure they are profitable.   Take agriculture as an example. The way subsidies are currently disbursed favours industrialised, chemical-dependent farming, benefitting primarily large landowners and multinational corporations at the expense of smallholder farmers and the environment.   A staggering $611bn is spent annually on farming subsidies, 86 percent ($528bn) of which potentially harms the climate, biodiversity, and human health. This sum eclipses the estimated $300-350bn required each year to transition to sustainable, diverse, and climate-resilient food systems.   It is high time governments, multilateral organisations, and corporations transform the rhetoric of “leave no one behind” into reality by recognising and protecting the GDP of the poor. It is time we realigned sustainable development with human development.   To do that, there are three key steps that need to be taken urgently. First, governments should transform their wealth accounting systems by measuring the GDP of the poor. Rwanda already started doing so in 2014, enabling more effective land use planning and preventing the fragmentation of ecosystems. Governments can also use as a model the Ecosystem Accounting framework, which was adopted by the United Nations Statistical Commission in 2021.   Second, governments and development partners must help African farmers transition from extractive, high-carbon farming to regenerative practices that boost the GDP of the poor. An example they can follow is Germany’s plan to end subsidies for harmful agricultural practices and promote research and development of alternative methods.   Third, development finance institutions and corporations must redirect their investment strategies to protect and sustain natural assets. They should prioritise projects and initiatives that empower local communities to manage and benefit from their environments.   To be sure, recognising the GDP of the poor is not merely an act of accounting; it is a necessary shift in our political economy. By acknowledging these assets, we can begin to loosen the grip of entrenched interests benefitting from the status quo, simultaneously improving the welfare of the majority and safeguarding Earth’s natural resources.   The cost-of-living crisis is a wake-up call to take a hard look at our priorities, our systems, and our values. A call to realise that in our pursuit of wealth, we have overlooked the wealth of nature that sustains billions of poor people.   What is at stake is more than just numbers on a balance sheet. What is at stake is our survival as a human race.   * Maxwell Gomera is the Resident representative of the United Nations Development Program in Rwanda   Feb. 2023   African leaders need to increase support for agriculture and smallholder farmers   In the 12 months that African leaders vowed to improve food security in the continent, over 20 million more people have been pushed into severe hunger - equivalent to the entire population of Botswana, Namibia and Zimbabwe combined.   Today a fifth of the African population (278m) is undernourished, and 55 million of its children under the age of five are stunted due to severe malnutrition.   “The hunger African people are facing today is a direct result of inadequate political choices. In a year marred with global inflation and climate disasters, African leaders should have stepped up to their responsibility”, said Fati N’Zi-Hassane, Oxfam in Africa Director.   Chronic underinvestment in agriculture is a key cause of the widespread hunger experienced in 2022.   The majority of African governments (48 out of 54) reportedly spend an average of 3.8 percent of their budgets on agriculture -some spending as little as one percent.   Nearly three quarters of these governments have reduced their agricultural spending since 2019, failing to honour their Malabo commitments to invest at least 10% of their budget on agriculture.   In contrast, African governments spent nearly double that budget (6.4%) on arms last year. Ongoing conflict, especially in Sahel and Central Africa, has continued to destroy farmland, displace people and fuel hunger.   With no major government support to farmers or adequate climate adaptation, production of staple food like cereals dropped last year, despite the continent possessing nearly a quarter of the world’s agricultural land.   Worsening climate-fuelled droughts and floods, and a global rise in fuel and fertilizers prices, made food unobtainable for millions of people. In 2022 alone, food inflation rose by double digits in all but ten African countries.   “During the rainy season, we did not have money to pay for fertilizers. On top of that, our donkey died, so I had to cultivate our field with a daba [a simple ploughing tool]. The attic is empty," says Sidbou, a female farmer in Burkina Faso.   As the 36th AU Summit – which focuses on intra-continental free trade this year– begins today, millions of smallholder farmers, who are vital food producers in the continent, cannot reach markets in neighbouring countries due to poor infrastructure and high intra-African tariffs. Many African nations find it cheaper to import food from outside the continent than from their next-door neighbour.   “As Africa’s Heads of State meet today at this year’s Summit, let this not be another year of broken promises. We urge them to honour commitments they collectively made almost 10 years ago by investing in agriculture and supporting smallholder farmers,” said N’Zi-Hassane.   “African leaders must also take serious steps to free up intra-continental trade to help local farmers. They must equally ramp up programmes to help people rebuild their lives and cope with recurrent climatic shocks,” added N’Zi-Hassane.   http://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/over-20-million-more-people-hungry-africas-year-nutrition http://reliefweb.int/report/world/urgent-investment-rural-areas-needed-safeguard-global-food-security-says-uns-ifad http://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/february-2023/one-year-later-impact-russian-conflict-ukraine-africa http://dont-gas-africa.org/cop27-report http://350africa.org/renewable-energy-report/ http://fossilfueltreaty.org/home Visit the related web page
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