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The greatest burden of climate change will fall on those in poverty
by Philip Alston
UN Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty
 
There is no shortage of alarm bells ringing over climate change, but they seem to have remained largely unheard so far.
 
In accepting the 2018 Nobel Prize for Economics, William Nordhaus described climate change as a 'Colossus that threatens our world' and the 'ultimate challenge for economics'.
 
The 2001 winner of the same prize, Joseph Stiglitz, referred to it more recently as World War III. Pope Francis has declared a global climate emergency, and warned that failure to take urgent action would be a brutal act of injustice toward the poor and future generations.
 
Climate change threatens truly catastrophic consequences across much of the globe and the human rights of vast numbers of people will be among the casualties.
 
By far the greatest burden will fall on those in poverty, but they will by no means be the only victims.
 
The last five years have been the hottest in the modern record and global carbon dioxide emissions began rising again in 2017 after three years of levelling off.
 
World energy consumption is projected to grow 28 percent between 2015 and 2040. The consequences today are attested to by record temperatures, rapidly melting icecaps, unprecedented wildfires, frequent so-called 'thousand year' floods, as well as devastating, more frequent hurricanes.
 
Millions face malnutrition due to devastating drought, and many more will have to choose between starvation and migration. Rising ocean temperatures are killing marine ecosystems that support food systems for hundreds of millions of people. And climate change is threatening food production and posing dire economic and social threats.
 
The most widespread scientific benchmark for measuring global warming is the rise in temperature relative to pre-industrial levels, already 1C. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to ensure no higher than a 2C rise by 2100 and endeavours to limit it to 1.5C. But even those increases would be catastrophic for many people.
 
A rise of only 1.5C rather than 2C could mean reducing the number of people vulnerable to climate-related risks by up to 457 million; 10 million fewer people exposed to the risk of sea level rise; reducing exposure to floods, droughts, and forest fires; limiting damage to ecosystems and reductions in food and livestock; cutting the number of people exposed to water scarcity by half; and up to 190 million fewer premature deaths over the century.
 
However, the scale of change required to limit warming to 1.5C is historically unprecedented and could only be achieved through 'societal transformation' and ambitious emissions reduction measures. And even 1.5C of warming, an unrealistic, best-case scenario will lead to extreme temperatures in many regions and leave disadvantaged populations with food insecurity, lost incomes and livelihoods, and worse health.
 
In all of these scenarios, the worst affected are the least well-off members of society. Climate change threatens the full enjoyment of a wide range of rights. Rapid action and adaptation can mitigate much of this, but only if done in a way that protects people in poverty from the worst effects.
 
According to the World Bank, at 2C degrees of warming, 100-400 million more people could be at risk of hunger and 1-2 billion more people may no longer have adequate water.
 
Climate change could result in global crop yield losses of 30 percent by 2080, even with adaptation measures. Between 2030 and 2050, it is expected to cause approximately 250,000 additional deaths per year from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea, and heat stress.
 
With people in poverty largely uninsured, climate change will exacerbate health shocks that already push 100 million into poverty every year.
 
People in poverty face a very real threat of losing their homes. By 2050, climate change could displace 140 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America alone. Flooding and landslides can weaken already degraded infrastructure and housing, especially for people living in unplanned or unserviced settlements.
 
2017 saw 18.8 million people displaced due to disasters in 135 countries almost twice the number displaced by conflict.
 
Since 2000, people in poor countries have died from disasters at rates seven times higher than in wealthy countries. In addition, authorities have a history of prioritizing wealthier areas for protection, further endangering people in poverty.
 
Climate change is, among other things, an unconscionable assault on the poor.
 
Climate change will exacerbate existing poverty and inequality. It will have the most severe impact in poor countries and regions, and the places poor people live and work. Developing countries will bear an estimated 75-80 percent of the costs of climate change.
 
People in poverty tend to live in areas more susceptible to climate change and in housing that is less resistant; lose relatively more when affected; have fewer resources to mitigate the effects; and get less support from social safety nets or the financial system to prevent or recover from the impact.
 
Their livelihoods and assets are more exposed and they are more vulnerable to natural disasters that bring disease, crop failure, spikes in food prices, and death or disability.
 
Climate change threatens to undo the last fifty years of progress in development, global health, and poverty reduction. Middle-class families, including in developed countries, are also being rendered poor. The World Bank estimates that without immediate action, climate change could push 120 million more people into poverty by 2030, likely an underestimate, and rising in subsequent years. Eight hundred million in South Asia alone live in climate hotspots and will see their living conditions decline sharply by 2050.
 
Perversely, the richest, who have the greatest capacity to adapt and are responsible for and have benefitted from the vast majority of greenhouse gas emissions, will be the best placed to cope with climate change, while the poorest, who have contributed the least to emissions and have the least capacity to react, will be the most harmed.
 
The poorest half of the world's population, 3.5 billion people is responsible for just 10 percent of carbon emissions, while the richest 10 percent are responsible for a full half. A person in the wealthiest 1 percent uses 175 times more carbon than one in the bottom 10 percent.
 
* Access the Climate Change & Poverty report: http://bit.ly/2NkMx7X http://bit.ly/2XbHmff


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Families deserve answers when loved ones go missing in conflict
by ICRC, UN News
 
Sep. 2019
 
Iraq: Hundreds of thousands of people remain missing after decades of war, violence. (ICRC)
 
The families of hundreds of thousands of missing Iraqis marked the International Day of the Disappeared on Friday, as the office of the country's Prime Minister pledged to support relatives and investigate cases.
 
Iraq has one of the highest number of missing people in the world, the result of decades of conflicts and violence. Nearly every Iraqi family is personally affected or knows someone who is.
 
'We see first-hand the heartbreaking emotional aftermath of a missing parent or child. Families never cease their anxious search for information', said Katharina Ritz, head of delegation in Iraq for the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC).
 
The office of Iraq's Prime Minister, during a joint appearance with ICRC to highlight the Day of the Disappeared, said that 'Iraqis have suffered for too long from the successive armed conflicts and that the government will spare no effort to continue to look into the fate and whereabouts of these missing persons and to bring hope and support to their families'.
 
Thousands of Iraqis have gone missing, many presumed dead, in violence in recent years. One family told an ICRC team of the agony of searching for answers after Nabil Saleh, a 28-year old father of three, went missing during an attack in 2014.
 
'There wasn't a single place I didn't go to look for him - mass graves, morgues, everywhere. I just need a grave to visit if he is dead, that's not too much to ask', said Salah Jafaar, 53.
 
The issue is a global one, exacerbated by armed conflict and violence, natural disasters and migration. The ICRC is currently following the cases of 145,000 missing people worldwide, though this figure is only a fraction of all the people believed to be missing worldwide.
 
In South Sudan, the ICRC is following more than 4,200 cases of missing people, many of whom were forced to flee violence and lost contact with family.
 
In Ukraine, more than 1,500 families have asked ICRC to help clarify the fate of a missing relative since the beginning of the current conflict. Around 770 families are still looking today.
 
In Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Serbia and Kosovo, some 35,000 persons went missing as the result of armed conflicts in the former Yugoslavia. More than 20 years later, families of more than 10,000 missing persons still live in uncertainty.
 
Nigeria, Yemen, Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria account for a majority of the ICRC's most recent missing cases. We also follow less recent cases in places like Sri Lanka, the western Balkans, and Lebanon, to name but a few.
 
Globally in 2018, more than 45,000 new missing persons cases were registered by the ICRC's Central Tracing Agency, the neutral entity mandated by the Geneva Conventions.
 
People who live for decades without answers about their loved ones face devastating consequences, including emotional suffering, economic hardship, and administrative and legal hurdles.
 
'When a person goes missing, their family suffers unimaginable anguish and distress, so clarifying the fate of missing people is a humanitarian act', said Martin Schuepp, ICRC's director for Europe and Central Asia.
 
'Reconnecting families is as important to our mission as providing food, shelter or water. People we assist frequently tell us that their absolute priority is to learn if their loved ones are safe'.
 
http://www.icrcnewsroom.org/story/en/1882/iraq-hundreds-of-thousands-of-people-remain-missing-after-decades-of-war-violence/ http://reliefweb.int/report/nigeria/nigeria-22000-people-registered-missing-after-decade-war-icrc-s-highest-caseload
 
June 2019
 
The UN Security Council has adopted the first-ever resolution on Persons Reported Missing during Armed Conflict, with calls for much greater political will from all parties to address the problem.
 
Representatives expressed concern that the number of such cases worldwide is showing no signs of abating and demanded greater political will to address the problem.
 
Peter Maurer, President of the International Committee of the Red Cross, said:
 
'Every time someone goes missing, families wait for answers. Ricocheting between hope and despair, they mark anniversaries, 1 year, 2 years, 10 years. The trauma of loss is one of the deepest wounds of war', he added.
 
ICRC is a daily witness to this suffering, with its teams frequently approached for help by mothers searching for their sons and by husbands searching for their wives.
 
Much more can be done, he said, the legal framework is in place, with international law setting out obligations for preventing persons from going missing in armed conflict and clarifying the fate and whereabouts of those who do. What is needed is stronger political will and cooperation, he emphasized.
 
'There is no comprehensive figure for those missing in conflict, but we know enough that the situation is dire', said Reena Ghelani, Director for Operations and Advocacy of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
 
She recalled that, in Syria, more than 10,000 cases of missing persons have been opened by ICRC, which has also received 13,000 requests for support for finding missing relatives from families in Nigeria.
 
In Myanmar, South Sudan and Yemen, meanwhile, the United Nations has reported cases of enforced disappearances, as well as missing persons.
 
Still pending clarification are cases of missing persons in the Balkans, Lebanon, Nepal and Sri Lanka that go back years or even decades, she said, adding that international humanitarian law, as it relates to missing persons, prohibits enforced disappearance and requires parties to conflict to take all feasible measures to account for those reported missing, while also enshrining the right of families to get information about the fate of missing kin.
 
She recommended that States and parties to conflict avail themselves of the support of ICRC and others to establish the necessary legal and policy frameworks.
 
Strengthening the role and capacity of relevant existing national, regional and international mechanisms will be essential, she said, encouraging Member States to cooperate through networking and the exchange of experiences. She said the scale of the problem can and must be addressed, principally by respecting and ensuring respect for international humanitarian law.
 
'Whatever the circumstances, the families of the missing are left in a state of absolute despair, not knowing the fate and whereabouts of their loved ones', Ms. Ghelani said.
 
She explained that when the missing person is the breadwinner of the family, the economic impact can be devastating, and that relatives left behind often face legal, administrative or cultural challenges that make it hard to remarry, claim their inheritance, or receive benefits.
 
Missing Persons in Armed Conflict (ICRC)
 
Hundreds of thousands of people are missing around the world as a result of armed conflict and violence. Some go missing in action. Others are forcibly disappeared. And thousands lose contact with their loved ones as they flee fighting. Many never return and are never heard from again.
 
Disappearance is a global problem that has devastating, often long-lasting consequences for families, communities and entire societies. Yet in many cases, efforts to stop people from disappearing, or to find those who have gone missing, lack resources or political will.
 
In Iraq, sources place the number of people who went missing in 2003-2013 at between 250,000 and 1 million. In Colombia, an estimated 79,000 people have gone missing during an internal conflict spanning five decades.
 
In South Sudan, more than 10,000 children have been registered as unaccompanied, separated or missing.
 
Having a loved one go missing can take a heavy emotional and material toll on families, sometimes for generations. Family members can experience severe psychological suffering linked to the uncertainty about the fate of a loved one.
 
Losing the main breadwinner can leave households struggling to make ends meet. And in some countries, relatives of missing people find it hard to remarry, claim their inheritance, receive benefits and generally rebuild their lives because they face legal and administrative hurdles.
 
Missing people are more than just individuals. They are also part of ethnic, religious, political and other communities that can struggle to cope with the loss of an important member.
 
Sometimes, when people disappear, the impact of that loss is felt beyond communities and across the entire society, endangering peace and reconciliation efforts, often for decades after their disappearance.
 
http://www.icrc.org/en/document/issue-missing-must-be-first-and-foremost-humanitarian http://www.icrc.org/en/war-and-law/protected-persons/missing-persons http://ihl-databases.icrc.org/customary-ihl/eng/docs/v1_rul_rule117


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