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	Urgent need for stronger protections for community activists and environmental defenders by CIVICUS, Global Witness, agencies   Dec. 2024   Civil Society Trends for 2025: Nine Global Challenges, One Reason for Hope, by Andrew Firmin and Ines Pousadela. (CIVICUS)   It’s been a tumultuous year, and a tough one for struggles for human rights. Civil society’s work to seek social justice and hold the powerful to account has been tested at every turn.   Civil society has kept holding the line, resisting power grabs and regressive legislation, calling out injustice and claiming some victories, often at great cost. And things aren’t about to get any easier, as key challenges identified in 2024 are likely to intensify in 2025.   1. More people are likely to be exposed to conflict and its consequences, including humanitarian and human rights disasters, mass displacement and long-term trauma. The message of 2024 is largely one of impunity: perpetrators of conflict, including in Israel and Russia, will be confident they can resist international pressure and escape accountability.   While there may be some kind of ceasefire in Gaza or halt to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, those responsible for large-scale atrocities are unlikely to face justice. Impunity is also likely to prevail in the conflicts taking place largely off the global radar, including in Myanmar and Sudan. There will also be growing concern about the use of AI and automated weapons in warfare, a troublingly under-regulated area.   As recent events in Lebanon and Syria have shown, changing dynamics, including shifting calculations made by countries such as Iran, Israel, Russia, Turkey and the USA, mean that frozen conflicts could reignite and new ones could erupt. As in Syria, these shifts could create sudden moments of opportunity; the international community and civil society must respond quickly when these come.   2. The second Trump administration will have a global impact on many current challenges. It’s likely to reduce pressure on Israel, hamper the response to the climate crisis, put more strain on already flawed and struggling global governance institutions and embolden right-wing populists and nationalists the world over.   These will bring negative consequences for civic space – the space for civil society, which depends on the freedoms of association, expression and peaceful assembly. Funding for civil society is also likely to be drastically reduced as a result of the new administration’s shifting priorities.   3. 2025 is the year that states are required to develop new plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change under the Paris Agreement. The process will culminate in the COP30 climate summit in Brazil, likely the world’s last chance to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees above preindustrial levels. This will only happen if states stand up to fossil fuel companies and look beyond narrow short-term interests.   Failing that, more of the debate may come to focus on adaptation. The unresolved question of who will pay for climate transition will remain central. Meanwhile, extreme weather events such as heatwaves and floods can be expected to continue to devastate communities, impose high economic costs, drive migration and exacerbate conflicts.   4. Globally, economic dysfunction is likely to increase, with more people struggling to afford basic necessities, increasingly including housing, as prices continue to rise, with climate change and conflict among the causes.   The gap between the struggling many and the ultra-wealthy few will become more visible, and anger at rising prices or taxes will drive people – particularly young people deprived of opportunities – onto the streets. State repression will often follow. Frustration with the status quo means people will keep looking for political alternatives, a situation right-wing populists and nationalists will keep exploiting. But demands for labour rights, particularly among younger workers, will also likely increase, along with pressure for policies such as wealth taxes, a universal basic income and a shorter working week.   5. A year when the largest number of people ever went to the polls has ended – but there are still plenty of elections to come. Where elections are free and fair, voters are likely to keep rejecting incumbents, particularly due to economic hardship. Right-wing populists and nationalists are likely to benefit the most, but the tide will eventually turn: once they’ve been around long enough to be perceived as part of the political establishment, they too will see their positions threatened, and they can be expected to respond with authoritarianism, repression and the scapegoating of excluded groups. More politically manipulated misogyny, homophobia, transphobia and anti-migrant rhetoric can be expected as a result.   6. Even if developments in generative AI slow as the current model reaches the limits of the human-generated material it feeds on, international regulation and data protection will likely continue to lag behind. The use of AI-enabled surveillance, such as facial recognition, against activists is likely to increase and become more normalised. The challenge of disinformation is likely to intensify, particularly around conflicts and elections.   Several tech leaders have actively taken the side of right-wing populists and authoritarians, putting their platforms and wealth at the service of their political ambitions. Emerging alternative social media platforms offer some promise but are likely to face similar problems as they grow.   7. Climate change, conflict, economic strife, repression of LGBTQI+ identities and civil and political repression will continue to drive displacement and migration. Most migrants will remain in difficult and underfunded conditions in global south countries. In the global north, right-wing shifts are expected to drive more restrictive and repressive policies, including the deportation of migrants to countries where they may be at risk. Attacks on civil society working to defend their rights, including by assisting at sea and land borders, are also likely to intensify.   8. The backlash against women’s and LGBTQI+ rights will continue. The US right wing will continue to fund anti-rights movements in the global south, notably in Commonwealth African countries, while European conservative groups will continue to export their anti-rights campaigns, as some Spanish organisations have long done throughout Latin America.   Disinformation efforts from multiple sources, including Russian state media, will continue to influence public opinion. This will leave civil society largely on the defensive, focused on consolidating gains and preventing setbacks.   9. As a result of these trends, the ability of civil society organisations and activists to operate freely will remain under pressure in the majority of countries. Just when its work is most needed, civil society will face growing restrictions on fundamental civic freedoms, including in the form of anti-NGO laws and laws that label civil society as agents of foreign powers, the criminalisation of protests and increasing threats to the safety of activists and journalists. Civil society will have to devote more of its resources to protecting its space, at the expense of the resources available to promote and advance rights.   10. Despite these many challenges, civil society will continue to strive on all fronts. It will continue to combine advocacy, protests, online campaigns, strategic litigation and international diplomacy. As awareness grows of the interconnected and transnational nature of the challenges, it will emphasise solidarity actions that transcend national boundaries and make connections between different struggles in different contexts.   Even in difficult circumstances, civil society achieved some notable victories in 2024. In the Czech Republic, civil society’s efforts led to a landmark reform of rape laws, and in Poland they resulted in a law making emergency contraception available without prescription, overturning previous restrictive legislation. After extensive civil society advocacy, Thailand led the way in Southeast Asia by passing a marriage equality law, while Greece became the first predominantly Christian Orthodox country to legalise same-sex marriage.   People defended democracy. In South Korea, people took to the streets in large numbers to resist martial law, while in Bangladesh, protest action led to the ousting of a longstanding authoritarian government. In Guatemala, a president committed to fighting corruption was sworn in after civil society organised mass protests to demand that powerful elites respect the election results, and in Venezuela, hundreds of thousands organised to defend the integrity of the election, defeated the authoritarian government in the polls and took to the streets in the face of severe repression when the results weren’t recognised. In Senegal, civil society mobilised to prevent an attempt to postpone an election that resulted in an opposition win.   Civil society won victories in climate and environmental litigation – including in Ecuador, India and Switzerland – to force governments to recognise the human rights impacts of climate change and do more to reduce emissions and curb pollution. Civil society also took to the courts to pressure governments to stop arms sales to Israel, with a successful verdict in the Netherlands and others pending.   In 2025, the struggle continues. Civil society will keep carrying the torch of hope that a more peaceful, just, equal and sustainable world is possible. This idea will remain as important as the tangible impact we’ll continue to achieve despite the difficult circumstances.   http://publications.civicus.org/publications/2025-state-of-civil-society-report/overview/ http://www.ipsnews.net/2024/12/south-africas-g20-presidency-call-transformative-leadership-fractured-world/ http://www.forus-international.org/en/news http://www.ipsnews.net/2024/12/year-saw-world-repressed-civil-society-hope/ http://reliefweb.int/report/world/civil-society-launches-new-initiative-strengthen-enabling-environment http://c20brasil.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/C20-Policy-Pack-2024_Digital.pdf http://t20brasil.org/en/communique http://www.t20brasil.org/en/pbs?nucleo_id=1 http://tinyurl.com/4tfzhzfs http://tinyurl.com/bdexbdhz http://tinyurl.com/nztatjtn   Sep. 2024   Urgent need for stronger protections for community activists and environmental defenders. (Global Witness)   At least 196 land and environmental defenders were killed last year for trying to protect their homes, community or the planet, according to a new report by Global Witness released today, working in collaboration with global partners. The new figures bring the total number of defender killings to 2,106 between 2012 and 2023.   Overall, Colombia was found to be the deadliest country in the world, with 79 deaths in total last year – compared to 60 in 2022, and 33 in 2021. This is the most defenders killed in one country in a single year Global Witness has ever recorded. With 461 killings from 2012 to 2023, Colombia has the highest number of reported environmental defender killings globally on record.   Other deadly countries in Latin America include Brazil, with 25 killings last year, and Mexico and Honduras, which both had 18 killings.   Central America has emerged as one of the most dangerous places in the world for defenders. With 18 defenders killed in Honduras, the country had the highest number of killings per capita in 2023. A total of 10 defenders were also killed in Nicaragua last year, while four were killed in Guatemala, and four in Panama.   Worldwide, Indigenous Peoples and Afrodescendents continue to be disproportionately targeted, accounting for 49% of total murders.   Laura Furones, Lead Author and Senior Advisor to the Land and Environmental Defenders Campaign at Global Witness said:   “As the climate crisis accelerates, those who use their voice to courageously defend our planet are met with violence, intimidation, and murder. Our data shows that the number of killings remains alarmingly high, a situation that is simply unacceptable.   “Governments cannot stand idly by; they must take decisive action to protect defenders and to address the underlying drivers of violence against them. Activists and their communities are essential in efforts to prevent and remedy harms caused by climate damaging industries. We cannot afford to, nor should we tolerate, losing any more lives.”   While establishing a direct relationship between the murder of a defender and specific corporate interests remains difficult, Global Witness identified mining as the biggest industry driver by far, with 25 defenders killed after opposing mining operations in 2023. Other industries include fishing (5), logging (5), agribusiness (4), roads and infrastructure (4) and hydropower (2).   In total, 23 of the 25 mining-related killings globally last year happened in Latin America. But more than 40% of all mining-related killings between 2012 and 2023 occurred in Asia - home to significant natural reserves of key critical minerals vital for clean energy technologies.   As well as highlighting the number of killings worldwide, the report unearths wider trends in non-lethal attacks and their harmful impacts on communities globally. It highlights cases of enforced disappearances and abductions, pointed tactics used in both the Philippines and Mexico in particular, as well as the wider use of criminalisation as a tactic to silence activists across the world.   The report also explores the crackdown on environmental activists across the UK, Europe and the US, where laws are increasingly being weaponised against defenders, and harsh sentences are more frequently imposed on those who have played a role in climate protests. The findings form part of a concerning trend of criminalisation cases emerging worldwide.   Jonila Castro, a Filipino activist who was abducted by the Philippines military in 2023 and currently facing criminalisation, featured in the report, said:   "Even after our release from abduction, threats continued. We are facing difficulties in returning to our homes and communities. We are still experiencing surveillance, red-tagging, and intimidation. Attacks to silence environmental defenders challenge our advocacy for environmental protection and people’s rights.   “Environmental devastation and human rights violations are interconnected, both sustained by governments and the extractive systems they defend. Our experience highlights the urgent need for stronger protection and recognition of community activists and environmental defenders in the global fight for climate justice."   Despite the escalating climate crisis - and governments pledging to achieve the Paris Agreement target of 1.5C – land and environmental defenders are being increasingly subject to a wide range of attacks to stop their efforts to protect the planet. At least 1,500 defenders have been killed since the adoption of the Paris Agreement on 12 December 2015.   Nonhle Mbuthuma, author of the report’s foreword and Goldman Environmental Prize Winner 2024, said:   “Across every corner of the globe, those who dare to expose the devastating impact of extractive industries—deforestation, pollution, and land grabbing—are met with violence and intimidation. This is especially true for Indigenous Peoples, who are essential in the fight against climate change, yet are disproportionately targeted year after year.   “Yet the brutality of these attacks reveals something profound: the power that ordinary people wield when they unite for justice. Leaders have a duty to listen and ensure that land and environmental defenders can speak out, everywhere, without fear of reprisal. This responsibility falls squarely on the shoulders of every wealthy and resource-rich nation worldwide.”   http://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/environmental-activists/missing-voices/ http://www.globalwitness.org/en/blog/bridging-gap-between-climate-change-and-human-rights-introducing-leaders-network-environmental-activists-and-defenders/ http://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/02/el-salvador-retrial-environmental-activists   * Rights defenders integral to achieving sustainable development, UN expert says.   From women activists feeding thousands of vulnerable families amid the brutal war in Sudan, to young Bangladeshis working to stamp out child marriage, human rights defenders worldwide are helping to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).   In fact, they are integral to ensuring that the 17 Goals – which include ending poverty, reducing inequality and protecting the environment – become reality, says Mary Lawlor, UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights defenders.   http://news.un.org/en/audio/2024/10/1156006 http://docs.un.org/en/A/79/123 http://srdefenders.org/ http://www.ohchr.org/en/statements-and-speeches/2025/01/hc-turk-message-improving-protection-human-rights-defenders http://news.un.org/en/story/2025/01/1158961 http://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2025/01/why-protecting-human-rights-defenders-must-be-a-priority-for-us-all http://ishr.ch/defenders-toolbox/resources/declaration-25/ http://ishr.ch/defender-stories/ http://www.fidh.org/en/issues/human-rights-defenders/ http://www.frontlinedefenders.org/ http://www.omct.org/en/what-we-do/human-rights-defenders http://defenddefenders.org/ http://forum-asia.org/ http://www.opensocietyfoundations.org/voices/strengthening-protection-for-rights-defenders http://www.martinennalsaward.org/   * Realising protection for Human Rights Defenders and Civil Society Organisations in Europe   Civil Society Europe and the European Civic Forum, leading an informal coalition of civil society organisations, present the Mapping paper and the Pathways paper for a Protection Mechanism for Human Rights Defenders and Civil Society Organisations in Europe. The papers aim to map the existing protection landscape and, based on the gaps and challenges, propose ways to build a stronger ecosystem for the protection of human rights defenders (HRDs) and civil society organisations (CSOs)   http://civilsocietyeurope.eu/a-protection-mechanism-for-human-rights-defenders-and-civil-society-organisations-in-europe/ http://www.fidh.org/en/issues/human-rights-defenders/joint-statement-on-the-attacks-on-ngos-in-the-european-parliament http://www.business-humanrights.org/en/latest-news/protection-mechanism-for-hrds-and-csos-in-europe/ http://www.transparency.org/en/news/eu-whistleblower-protection-falling-short-when-it-matters-most http://euobserver.com/rule-of-law/ar5a7985de http://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2025/05/ruling-against-nso-group-in-whatsapp-case-a-momentous-win/ http://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2025/03/europe-paragon-attacks-highlight-europes-growing-spyware-crisis/ http://knightcolumbia.org/content/silenced-by-surveillance-the-impacts-of-digital-transnational-repression   * Grassroots justice defenders are at the frontlines for the fight for democracy and rule of law. By helping communities know, use, and shape the law, they are working to shape a more just future. And they are doing this work in challenging contexts, shaped by rising authoritarianism and closing civic spaces. Practitioners from the Grassroots Justice Network recently came together to address the pressing question: How can legal empowerment efforts – which combine law and organizing to build power within communities – respond to repression and advance a deeper, more resilient form of democracy?   http://www.openglobalrights.org/up-close/legal-empowerment-fighting-repression-deepening-democracy/ http://grassrootsjusticenetwork.org http://namati.org/ http://www.ipsnews.net/2024/12/gaps-un-agreement-national-laws-must-step-protect-community-land-rights/ Visit the related web page
	Trends that will spur humanitarian needs in 2025 by UNICEF Innocenti, agencies   The world is entering a new era of crisis for children; climate change, inequality and conflict are disrupting their lives and limiting their futures, an authoritative study from the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) has warned.   At the beginning of each year, UNICEF looks ahead to the risks that children are likely to face and suggests ways to reduce the potential harm. The latest report, Prospects for Children 2025: Building Resilient Systems for Children’s Futures, demands strengthening national systems that are designed to mitigate the impacts of crises on children and ensure they have access to the support they need.   A doubling of children living in conflict zones   Intensifying armed conflict will continue to pose serious risks to children in 2025. Over 473 million children — more than one in six globally — now live in areas affected by conflict, with the world experiencing the highest number of conflicts since World War II. And the percentage of the world’s children living in conflict zones has doubled — from around 10 per cent in the 1990s to almost 19 per cent today.   Amid growing geopolitical rivalries and the paralysis of multilateral institutions, both state and non-state actors appear increasingly willing to flout international laws designed to protect civilian populations, with attacks on civilian infrastructure like schools and hospitals becoming ever more common.   This unravelling of decades of efforts to safeguard civilians is taking a heavy toll on children. As well as the risks to their lives, children face displacement and the threat of starvation and disease. There are also substantial risks to their psychological wellbeing.   The multilateral system has struggled to respond effectively. A concerted and sustained effort is needed to reverse the losses of recent years.   The financial system isn’t working   Governments of developing countries are finding it increasingly difficult to fund key investments in children, thanks to slow growth, rising debt and inadequate tax revenues and development assistance.   Another important factor is the growing burden of sovereign debt. Nearly 400 million children live in countries in debt distress, and without major reforms this figure is set to rise. The cost of servicing this debt is squeezing out essential investments for children.   In 2025, we face crucial decisions about reforms to the framework of institutions, policies, rules and practices that govern the global financial system.   The irreversible consequences of the climate crisis   Children are disproportionately impacted by climate change and the effects on their development, health, education and well-being can be lifelong and irreversible.   2025 presents crucial opportunities to make progress towards global climate goals. This means comprehensive and robust policymaking, adequate and equitable financing and investments, strong regulatory and accountability frameworks, and effective monitoring systems.   Several digital trends are poised to shape our future in 2025 and beyond. Rapid advancements in emerging technologies will continue to shape all spheres of children’s lives from education to communication to participation in digital economy.   One key trend is the emergence of digital public infrastructure (DPI). DPI is a set of shared digital systems that can provide equitable access to public and private services. It allows large-scale delivery of digital public services, including for children, and is now being rapidly adopted around the world.   DPI has the potential to fundamentally shift how governments serve and engage with their citizens, including children. It can also be central to promoting rules driving development, inclusion, trust, innovation, and respect for human rights.   But persistent inequalities in digital access, particularly in least-developed countries, are a major barrier to ensuring DPI serves every child. There are issues, too, with ensuring data harmonization across systems and with guaranteeing adequate data protection and security.   New and ongoing crises will continue to challenge the future of global governance.   In 2025, nations and institutions must address the critical question of whether the global multilateral framework will unify to form a cohesive response to our shared challenges or fragment further, risking a loss of collective action. The direction we take will deeply impact efforts to protect children’s rights and well-being across the world.   Rights of children must remain at the forefront   The conclusion drawn by the report’s authors is the critical importance of adopting and promoting systems to improve the lives and prospects of children.   These systems must embody principles of inclusion, equity, and accountability, ensuring that the rights and needs of children remain at the forefront. And, just as importantly, they must not only address current global challenges but also anticipate and prepare for what lies ahead.   http://www.unicef.org/press-releases/statement-unicef-executive-director-catherine-russell-global-foreign-aid-reductions http://reliefweb.int/report/world/children-facing-extreme-hunger-crisis-put-risk-aid-cuts-clinics-close http://www.unicef.org/innocenti/reports/prospects-children-2025-global-outlook   Trends that will spur humanitarian needs in 2025. (New Humanitarian)   Debt and taxes: Lopsided global financial order keeps countries dependent   It’s hard to prepare for the next crisis when you’re spending more to pay down debt than on social services. But that’s the position many countries are in as the global debt crisis deepens.   Global public debt is at a record $97 trillion, according to UN figures. Public debt is growing twice as fast in developing countries, and economists expect debt defaults – where a government can’t pay what it owes – to rise in the coming year. At the same time, governments are losing half a trillion dollars in underpaid taxes, including aid-receiving countries facing humanitarian emergencies.   Combined, this means governments are shortchanged out of income that could better support their citizens – while locked in to punishing debt that’s draining their economies.   Some 48 developing countries spend more on interest than they do on education or health, according to the UN’s trade and development arm, UNCTAD. That’s a quarter of the world’s countries, home to more than 40% of the global population. This fiscal crisis eats away at public services.   Debt payments and spending cuts demanded by international lenders are “choking” countries, UNAIDS warned, leaving HIV services chronically underfunded. And countries facing the world’s worst food crises are spending nearly double the amount on debt payments than they do on health, researchers say.   Women and girls are especially impacted as governments cut back with “austerity measures” and “fiscal consolidation” – often demanded as conditions for loans. For example, in the Maldives, which is teetering on the edge of debt distress, analysts say cuts to social protection programmes such as single mothers’ allowances and food and electricity subsidies would hurt women disproportionately.   The ripples can be seen in street demonstrations and farmers’ protests from Global South to Global North. Rising costs and questionable governance may be the most visible grievances. But debt distress, global lending policies, and public spending cuts or raised taxes are folded into the dynamics behind protests from Kenya to Pakistan (which spend 25% and 40% of government revenue on interest payments, respectively, according to UN figures), or from Angola (20%) to Nigeria (30%), or from Tunisia (11%) to Sri Lanka (74%).   And as the climate crisis spirals, the cycle of disaster and debt accumulation speeds up. Countries take on loans to build back from disasters; servicing debt drains the money needed to prepare for the next one – and deepens dependency on aid if they’re forced to rely on external help.   Conflicts rage on (and worsen) as peacebuilding efforts flounder   Comprehensive settlements to end wars were common in past decades, but the post-Cold War peacemaking boom has been derailed by war-on-terror politics, the return of great power rivalries, and the rise of influential new powers. Diplomats today are more focused on securing ceasefires than lasting peace, but even those efforts are in a rut.   Initiatives to end Sudan’s war have been disjointed: Both the belligerents and their external backers seem more committed to prolonging the country’s collapse. Israel has been sabotaging ceasefire talks with Hamas, ignoring diplomatic tough talk from allies (knowing US arms will keep flowing), and invading its neighbours with impunity. The UN-led peace process in Yemen is at a standstill, while political groups and militias are still vying for power in Libya despite reduced fighting following a 2020 ceasefire.   Peacemaking efforts in other battlefields appear non-existent. In Myanmar, the junta is raining down bombs on civilians, while putschists in West Africa’s Sahel region are doubling down on military campaigns, even punishing locals who want to engage in grassroots talks.   The increased number of conflicts that are ending through military victory (see the HTS offensive in Syria, Azerbaijan’s blitzkrieg in Nagorno-Karabakh, and the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan) may also convince some warmakers to keep on fighting.   The fracturing of the old order brings new dangers   Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and America’s unflinching support for Israel’s destruction of Gaza have delivered near-fatal blows to the rules-based international order that Western nations have trumpeted since World War II. The re-election of Trump, who is openly hostile to international treaties and institutions, may accelerate the disorder, while other Western democracies cling to the old rules with diminishing success. Senegal will soon become the sixth African state to expel French troops. Europe continues to circumvent its own sanctions by buying Russian oil from India.   Russia and China are stepping in where Western influence has waned. No longer a single global system, multilateralism has fractured into smaller groupings of states with competing backers, presenting new challenges (as well as some potential opportunities). With the expansion of the BRICS economic bloc, several US-aligned states may be able to resolve disputes without Western input, as shown by the China-brokered detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia.   Any external efforts to project influence over Burkina Faso, Mali, or Niger will now come up against the Alliance of Sahel States, the mutual defence pact formed last July after all three exited the ECOWAS bloc, perceived to be aligned with former colonial master France.   Mass atrocity crimes continue unchecked, as impunity becomes more blatant   The New Humanitarian was founded in 1995, in the wake of the Rwandan genocide, in the enduring hope that providing early warning and better information about crises might help prevent future atrocities. Thirty years on, it has become evident that knowing more about what is going on isn’t the only problem: The lack of accountability for those who violate international humanitarian law is more glaring than ever, and the threat of justice doesn’t appear to be playing the deterrent role many hoped it might.   More people may be talking about the international courts than usual (largely due to Gaza, but also Sudan and Ukraine), but what difference, if any, does it all make? The International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for war crimes and crimes against humanity hasn’t stopped the military onslaught, nor the restrictions on aid that the ICC warrant draws upon. And just weeks after a second order from the International Court of Justice (ICJ) that it take “immediate and effective measures” to enable aid into northern Gaza to avert “plausible” genocide, Israel killed dozens of Palestinians who were working with UN agencies to get food to starving Palestinians.   In Sudan, nearly 15 years after the ICC first issued an arrest warrant for then-President Omar al-Bashir, the group that evolved out of his Janjaweed militia is accused of a rash of atrocities and is currently besieging the city of El Fasher. For the record, Russia is still bombing hospitals in Ukraine, and, until recently, Syria too.   We noted this time last year that “women and children, as always, will bear the brunt of the impacts” of humanitarian crises in 2024. To give just a few examples to drive home the point: gender-based violence in Sudan has increased by 100% since the civil war erupted in April 2023; documented cases of sexual violence in eastern Demoratic Republic of the Congo more than doubled in the first half of 2024; and service providers in Port-au-Prince have reported receiving an average of 40 rape victims a day in some areas of the Haitian capital as gangs deploy sexual abuse as a routine means of torture and control. As we head into 2025, the situation is especially bleak.   Already scarce, programmes for women and girls are often among the first to be cut when aid agencies face difficult decisions due to funding shortfalls, as they do now. And new risks are also on the horizon: from recently passed laws on reproductive health in America to growing restrictions on the rights of women and girls to work and be educated in Afghanistan. Women’s rights and queer movements, especially in Africa, are also being targeted and attacked by record levels of investment from US far-right groups.   Needs soar in Latin America as gang violence and organised crime spiral   Latin America has been plagued by gang violence for decades, but record-high cocaine production, fast and unregulated urbanisation, and the global expansion of transnational organised crime – often with the complicity of corrupt authorities and institutions – have led to new surges of criminality across the region.   Millions of people have been internally displaced or have migrated due to losing their sources of livelihood to extortion rackets, because they face constant threats, or to prevent their children from being recruited by gangs. Those who stay often live in permanent fear and suffer chronic abuse. The resulting humanitarian fallout – including food insecurity, lack of access to basic services, and soaring mental health issues, among others – continues to worsen, even as aid groups face growing access barriers.   From Mexico to Haiti, from Venezuela to Ecuador, from Honduras to Colombia, those responding are struggling to adapt to urban settings where criminal and armed groups hold sway. In Haiti, MSF temporarily suspended operations after facilities and ambulances were attacked; in southern Mexico, cartel-related violence forced humanitarian organisations to withdraw from entire areas; while similar aid suspensions have been seen in Guayaquil in Ecuador, in San Jose in Costa Rica, and in San Pedro Sula in Honduras (to name just a few).   The end of asylum   The horrors of World War II supposedly taught the international community a lesson: Countries around the world have a moral responsibility to provide protection to people fleeing persecution based on their identities or political beliefs.   Over time, the definition of who was considered deserving of protection gradually expanded to include those escaping the more general dangers of war and various other forms violence. The extent to which the principle of providing refugees with protection has been adhered to has always been political. But the concept of asylum is currently under unprecedented assault, particularly in the Global North.   For nearly a decade, centre and left-leaning political parties across Europe have adopted increasingly hardline policies and rhetoric on migration in an attempt to stave off the advance of the far-right at the ballot box. The situation is similar in the United States, where the Democratic Party of President Joe Biden talked tough and cracked down on migration at the US southern border ahead of the 2024 elections. In both cases, the strategy has failed – both for the political parties using it and, most importantly, for people forced to undertake exceedingly dangerous journeys in search of protection.   http://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/analysis/2025/01/07/trends-will-spur-humanitarian-needs-2025 http://reliefweb.int/report/world/global-humanitarian-policy-forum-2024-12-13-december-2024-global-crises-local-leadership-redefining-humanitarian-action-tomorrow-summary-report http://humanitarianaction.info/document/global-humanitarian-overview-2025 http://www.nrc.no/news/2024/december/alarming-gap-in-humanitarian-assistance--millions-will-receive-no-support/ http://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/analysis/2024/12/04/key-takeaways-uns-ruthless-aid-blueprint-2025 http://www.acaps.org/en/countries http://www.acaps.org/en/thematics/all-topics/humanitarian-access   http://www.crisisgroup.org/united-states/united-states/united-states-internal/us-aid-cuts-make-famine-more-likely-and-easier http://www.crisisgroup.org/africa-sudan/humanitarian-diplomacy-negotiating-aid-access-turbulent-world http://www.crisisgroup.org/global/un-may-regret-getting-out-peacekeeping-business http://www.care.org/news-and-stories/10-crises-to-look-out-for-in-2025/ http://plan-international.org/blog/2024/12/20/2024-tough-year-for-girls-with-pivotal-year-ahead/ http://actionaid.org/news/2025/africa-owed-us36-trillion-climate-debt-rich-polluting-countries-new-report-actionaid http://www.eurodad.org/2023_aid_data_final_press
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