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Continuing with current climate policies will lead to 3.1°C of calamitous global warming
by WMO, UN Environment Programme, agencies
 
Oct. 2024
 
Greenhouse gases surged to new highs in 2023. (WMO)
 
Greenhouse gas levels surged to a new record in 2023, committing the planet to rising temperatures for many years to come, according to a report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Carbon dioxide (CO2) is accumulating in the atmosphere faster than any time experienced during human existence, rising by more than 10% in just two decades.
 
In the course of 2023, large vegetation fire CO2 emissions and a possible reduction in carbon absorption by forests combined with stubbornly high fossil fuel CO2 emissions from human and industrial activities to drive the increase, according to the WMO’s annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin.
 
The globally-averaged surface concentration of CO2 reached 420.0 parts per million (ppm), methane 1 934 parts per billion and nitrous oxide 336.9 parts per billion (ppb) in 2023. These values are 151%, 265% and 125% of pre-industrial (before 1750) levels, it said. These are calculated on the basis of the long-term observations within the Global Atmosphere Watch network of monitoring stations.
 
“Another year. Another record. This should set alarm bells ringing among decision makers. We are clearly off track to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C and aiming for 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. These are more than just statistics. Every part per million and every fraction of a degree temperature increase has a real impact on our lives and our planet,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
 
“The Bulletin warns that we face a potential vicious cycle. Natural climate variability plays a big role in carbon cycle. But in the near future, climate change itself could cause ecosystems to become larger sources of greenhouse gases. Wildfires could release more carbon emissions into the atmosphere, whilst the warmer ocean might absorb less CO2. Consequently, more CO2 could stay in the atmosphere to accelerate global warming. These climate feedbacks are critical concerns to human society,” said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.
 
From 1990 to 2023, radiative forcing – the warming effect on our climate - by long-lived greenhouse gases increased by 51.5%, with CO2 accounting for about 81% of this increase, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Annual Greenhouse Gas Index cited in the WMO Bulletin.
 
As long as emissions continue, greenhouse gases will continue accumulating in the atmosphere leading to global temperature rise. Given the extremely long life of CO2 in the atmosphere, the temperature level already observed will persist for several decades even if emissions are rapidly reduced to net zero.
 
The last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration of CO2 was 3-5 million years ago, when the temperature was 2-3°C warmer and sea level was 10-20 meters higher than now..
 
Oct. 2024
 
UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell on the release of the 2024 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) Synthesis Report. The report assesses the combined impact of nations’ current national climate plans (NDCs) on expected global emissions in 2030, among other measures:
 
"Today’s NDC Synthesis Report must be a turning point, ending the era of inadequacy and sparking a new age of acceleration, with much bolder new national climate plans from every country due next year.
 
The report’s findings are stark but not surprising – current national climate plans fall miles short of what’s needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy, and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country.
 
By contrast, much bolder new national climate plans can not only avert climate chaos – done well, they can be transformational for people and prosperity in every nation.
 
Bolder new climate plans are vital to drive stronger investment, economic growth and opportunity, more jobs, less pollution, better health and lower costs, more secure and affordable clean energy, among many others benefits.
 
As expected, with countries currently working to put together new NDCs due next year, this year’s report shows only fractional progress compared to what is expected – and urgently needed – next year.
 
Current plans combined – if fully implemented – would see emissions of 51.5 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2030 - a level only 2.6 per cent lower than in 2019. Greenhouse gas pollution at these levels will guarantee a human and economic trainwreck for every country, without exception.
 
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change notes that greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut 43% by 2030, compared to 2019 levels. By 2035, net global greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut by 60% compared to 2019 levels. This is critical to limiting global heating to 1.5°C this century to avert the worst climate impacts. Every fraction of a degree matters, as climate disasters get rapidly worse"..
 
Oct. 2024
 
Continuing with current climate policies will lead to 3.1°C of calamitous global warming. (UNEP)
 
Nations must collectively commit to cutting 42 per cent off annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 57 per cent by 2035 in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – and back this up with rapid action – or the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal will be gone within a few years, according to a new UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report.
 
Updated NDCs are to be submitted early next year ahead of the COP30 climate talks in Brazil. UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please! finds that a failure to increase ambition in these new NDCs and start delivering immediately would put the world on course for a temperature increase of 2.6-3.1°C over the course of this century. This would bring debilitating impacts to people, planet and economies.
 
The 2.6°C scenario is based on the full implementation of current unconditional and conditional NDCs. Implementing only current unconditional NDCs would lead to 2.8°C of warming.
 
Continuing with current policies only would lead to 3.1°C of warming. Under these scenarios – which all operate on a probability of over 66 per cent – temperatures would continue to rise into the next century.
 
Adding additional net-zero pledges to full implementation of unconditional and conditional NDCs could limit global warming to 1.9°C, but there is currently low confidence in the implementation of these net-zero pledges.
 
“The emissions gap is not an abstract notion,” said António Guterres, UN Secretary-General, in a video message on the report. “There is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters.
 
Around the world, people are paying a terrible price. Record emissions mean record sea temperatures supercharging monster hurricanes; record heat is turning forests into tinder boxes and cities into saunas; record rains are resulting in biblical floods.
 
“Today’s Emissions Gap report is clear: we’re playing with fire; but there can be no more playing for time. We’re out of time. Closing the emissions gap means closing the ambition gap, the implementation gap, and the finance gap. Starting at COP29.”
 
The report also looks at what it would take to get on track to limiting global warming to below 2°C. For this pathway, emissions must fall 28 per cent by 2030 and 37 per cent from 2019 levels by 2035 – the new milestone year to be included in the next NDCs.
 
“Climate crunch time is here. We need global mobilization on a scale and pace never seen before – starting right now, before the next round of climate pledges – or the 1.5°C goal will soon be dead and well below 2°C will take its place in the intensive care unit,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP.
 
“I urge every nation: no more hot air, please. Use the upcoming COP29 talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, to increase action now, set the stage for stronger NDCs, and then go all-out to get on a 1.5°C pathway.
 
“Even if the world overshoots 1.5°C – and the chances of this happening are increasing every day – we must keep striving for a net-zero, sustainable and prosperous world. Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved and the ability to rapidly bring down any temperature overshoot.”
 
The consequences of delayed action are also highlighted by the report. The cuts required are relative to 2019 levels, but greenhouse gas emissions have since grown to a record high of 57.1 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2023. While this makes a marginal difference to the overall cuts required from 2019-2030, the delay in action means that 7.5 per cent must be shaved off emissions every year until 2035 for 1.5°C, and 4 per cent for 2°C. The size of the annual cuts required will increase with every year’s delay.
 
1.5°C still technically possible, but massive effort needed
 
The report shows that there is technical potential for emissions cuts in 2030 up to 31 gigatons of CO2 equivalent – which is around 52 per cent of emissions in 2023 – and 41 gigatons in 2035. This would bridge the gap to 1.5°C in both years, at a cost below US$200 per ton of CO2 equivalent.
 
Increased deployment of solar photovoltaic technologies and wind energy could deliver 27 per cent of the total reduction potential in 2030 and 38 per cent in 2035. Action on forests could deliver around 20 per cent of the potential in both years. Other strong options include efficiency measures, electrification and fuel switching in the buildings, transport and industry sectors.
 
This potential illustrates it is possible to meet the COP28 targets of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030, doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, transitioning away from fossil fuels, and conserving, protecting and restoring nature and ecosystems.
 
However, delivering on even some of this potential will require unprecedented international mobilization and a whole-of-government approach, focusing on measures that maximize socioeconomic and environmental co-benefits and minimize trade-offs.
 
A minimum six-fold increase in mitigation investment is needed for net-zero – backed by reform of the global financial architecture, strong private sector action and international cooperation. This is affordable: the estimated incremental investment for net-zero is US$0.9-2.1 trillion per year from 2021 to 2050 – investments that would bring returns in avoided costs from climate change, air pollution, damage to nature and human health impacts. For context, the global economy and financial markets are worth US$110 trillion per year.
 
The G20 members, responsible for the bulk of total emissions, must do the heavy lifting. However, this group is still off track to meet even current NDCs. The largest-emitting members will need to take the lead by dramatically increasing action and ambition now and in the new pledges.
 
G20 members, minus the African Union, accounted for 77 per cent of emissions in 2023. The addition of the African Union as a permanent G20 member, which more than doubles the number of countries represented from 44 to 99, brings the share up by only 5 per cent to 82 per cent – highlighting the need for differentiated responsibilities between nations.
 
Stronger international support and enhanced climate finance will be essential to ensure that climate and development goals can be realized fairly across G20 members and globally.
 
The report also lays out how to ensure the updated NDCs are well-designed, specific and transparent so they can meet any new targets put in place. NDCs must include all gases listed in the Kyoto Protocol, cover all sectors, set specific targets, be explicit about conditional and unconditional elements and provide transparency around how the submission reflects a fair share of effort and the highest possible ambition.
 
They must also detail how national sustainable development goals can be achieved at the same time as efforts to reduce emissions, and include detailed implementation plans with mechanisms for review and accountability.
 
For emerging market and developing economies, NDCs should include details on the international support and finance they need.
 
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PIK Assessment on COP29 closing:
 
Johan Rockstrom, Earth system scientist and Co-Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK):
 
“The Baku agreement of raising 300 billion dollars of public money annually from multiple sources by 2035 fails on several accounts. Too little, too late, from too many sources. Global emissions must be reduced by 7.5 percent per year to avoid unmanageable global outcomes as the world breaches the 1.5°C limit. Starting by taking off 3 billion tonnes of CO2 in 2025. We cannot wait for public climate finance another ten years, by which time loss-and-damage costs will have gone through the roof. Our only chance is full focus on financing and implementing emission cuts now. Furthermore, to solve the climate crisis we need to redirect the entire global economy away from fossil-fuel based growth".
 
Ottmar Edenhofer, climate economist and Co-Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research:
 
“The climate summit in Baku was not a success, but at best the avoidance of a diplomatic disaster. It is now abundantly clear that we need additional negotiation formats for the global fight against the climate crisis. It is now important to link climate financing for the Global South, which was the main topic of discussion in Baku, to emissions reduction. Donor states in the wealthy North should mobilise the funds by pricing oil, coal and gas. Second, the money should ideally only flow if the recipient country demonstrably reduces their greenhouse gas emissions".
 
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The climate crisis is intensifying, increasing the likelihood of severe disasters
by UN Office for Humanitarian Affairs
 
The world is perilously close to 1.5ºC warming and the climate crisis is increasing the frequency and severity of disasters, with devastating consequences for the lives and livelihoods of millions of people.
 
In 2023, global temperatures hit a record high and 2024 is expected to be even hotter. This extends a decade-long trend, with 2015 to 2024 now the hottest years recorded. In 2023, rivers worldwide had their driest year in over three decades, and ocean temperatures spiked, with 2024 data showing comparable levels of heating.
 
When water is scarce, polluted or difficult to access, people’s food security can be undermined, their livelihoods may be eroded and conflict can follow. Meanwhile, sea levels hit their highest point in 2023; although they dipped slightly in 2024, the last decade saw sea levels rise at twice the rate of two decades ago. Rising sea levels and increasing tide heights put coastal and island communities at risk of more intense storm surges, coastal erosion and flooding.
 
Glaciers in 2023 recorded the greatest ice loss with water displaced equivalent to five times the Dead Sea’s volume. Global humanitarian leadership have stated that keeping the global temperature rise to below 1.5°C is a top humanitarian priority and called for dramatically increased ambition in the new ‘nationally determined contributions.
 
Climate change is intensifying the severity of weather-related disasters and wreaking havoc on food systems. It has made events like the devastating Horn of Africa drought (2020 to 2023) at least 100 times more likely, and increased the likelihood and destructive power of major hurricanes, such as Hurricane Beryl in 2024, the strongest June hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic.
 
Hotter temperatures, more frequent and severe droughts, floods, storms and rising sea levels are disrupting food and water security, degrading the environment, damaging human health and livelihoods, and displacing millions of people.
 
The climate crisis is wreaking havoc on food systems, with droughts causing over 65 per cent of agricultural economic damages in the past 15 years, worsening food insecurity, especially in areas reliant on smallholder farming. In early 2024, drought was estimated to have reduced corn production in Mexico by 20 to 40 per cent, while drought southern Africa led to a 42 per cent loss in cereal production in Zambia.
 
Weather-related disasters are affecting millions of people each year and uprooting many from their homes. In 2023, 363 weather-related disasters were recorded, affecting at least 93.1 million people and causing thousands of deaths.
 
In the same year, disasters triggered 26.4 million internal displacements/movements with over three quarters caused by weather events. Although complete data for 2024 is not yet available, the year has already seen major weather events.
 
Persistent heatwaves affected East Asia, the Mediterranean and Middle East, the United Sates of America, northern India and the Horn of Africa. In the first half of the year, Afghanistan faced cold waves and flooding, while floods caused major loss of life in east Africa, including Kenya and Tanzania.
 
Lake Victoria’s record-high levels contributed to extensive flooding in South Sudan while the rising waters of Lake Tanganyika triggered severe flooding in both Burundi and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Heavy rains caused devastating flooding in southern Brazil, forcing more than 400,000 people to leave their homes and leading to billions of dollars in economic losses.
 
The North Atlantic hurricane season started early in 2024, with Hurricane Beryl setting a record as the earliest Atlantic Ocean category 5 storm. Extreme rainfall affected central Europe, and flooding in the Sahel in September displaced nearly 1.4 million people across Chad, Mali and Nigeria.
 
Typhoon Yagi displaced nearly 1.6 million people across Myanmar, Lao People's Democratic Republic and Viet Nam in September 2024.
 
Children are especially affected, with roughly one in eight significantly impacted by 10 major weather events in 2024, including the drought in Southern Africa, Typhoon Yagi in southeast Asia and flooding in the Sahel.
 
The climate crisis also threatens physical and mental health. The disruption of health care due to climatic events hinders effective humanitarian response, as seen in South Sudan, where floods submerged 58 health facilities. In 2024, El Nino intensified these challenges globally. Water-borne diseases like cholera and vector-borne illnesses such as malaria and dengue surged, driven by warmer temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns.
 
There is also growing evidence that conflict can contribute directly to climate change. Researchers estimate that the emissions from the first 120 days of the conflict in Gaza were greater than the annual emissions of 26 individual countries and territories. The first seven months of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were estimated to cause at least 100 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. While data is poor, estimates suggest that the world’s militaries are responsible for 5.5 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, not including emissions from warfighting itself. And vice-versa, climate change may also indirectly contribute to conflict by increasing tensions around food security, water scarcity and resource competition.
 
Meanwhile, the top 30 oil and gas companies (excluding those based in poorer countries) have recorded a combined average of $400 billion per year in free cash flow since the Paris agreement was signed in 2015. The UN Secretary-General has called for global production and consumption of all fossil fuels to be cut by at least thirty percent by 2030 and urged every country to ban advertising from fossil fuel companies.
 
Global humanitarian leadership have called for urgent support for communities on the frontlines of the climate crisis to adapt and respond to its impacts. Yet, climate finance for fragile and conflict-affected countries is critically lacking.
 
These countries receive far less adaptation finance than other low-income countries, despite their acute vulnerability to climate change. Adaptation must be planned, financed and implemented at a scale and speed that matches the worsening climate crisis.
 
Further, access to climate finance must be significantly increased and directed to the local level in countries experiencing conflict, extreme poverty and humanitarian crises, including least developed countries (LDCs) and small island developing States (SIDS). Humanitarian leadership has also called for climate finance processes to be streamlined and made more accessible to multiple actors, including civil societies and community-based organizations.
 
Disaster risk reduction and early warning systems are crucial to helping communities prepare for, and respond to, the climate crisis, and anticipatory action can help humanitarians respond early.
 
One third of people, mainly in LDCs and SIDS, lack effective early warning systems for climate-related disasters. Urgent new investments are needed to improve and extend early warning, in support of the Secretary General’s Early Warnings for All initiative.
 
Early warning systems must cover those most at-risk, particularly in countries and communities affected by conflict, fragility and/or humanitarian crises, and enable enhanced climate risk appraisal and impact management interventions, particularly scaled-up anticipatory action.
 
As this year’s Global Humanitarian Overview highlights, without urgent climate action, there are a growing number of countries that face increasingly frequent and severe disasters.
 
Seven countries began 2025 with humanitarian Flash Appeals that should be on a development trajectory, but risk facing repeated crises without global support to help their communities adapt and prepare.
 
And in some of the world’s largest humanitarian crises, people are now faced with rising climate risks: the 2020 to 2023 Horn of Africa drought took a devastating toll on communities previously hit by conflict in Somalia, and flooding in South Sudan has affected about 1.4 million people in 2024, mostly in parts of the country that have endured intense fighting.
 
At least 90 million displaced people are living in countries with high-to-extreme exposure to climate-related hazards and nearly half out of all forcibly displaced people are bearing the burden of both conflict and the adverse effects of climate change.
 
It is therefore critical that the world acts to support those on the frontlines of the climate crisis, including redirecting climate finance to those who need it most, before it is too late.
 
http://humanitarianaction.info/document/global-humanitarian-overview-2025/article/climate-crisis-intensifying-increasing-likelihood-severe-disasters http://humanitarianaction.info/document/global-humanitarian-overview-2025


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