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	Met Office analysis reveals "clear fingerprints" of man-made climate change by Alok Jha The Guardian & agencies   Mar 2010   Climate scientists say the 100 studies of sea ice, rainfall and temperature indicate that human activity is the most likely main cause of climate change, according to a UK Met Office review of more than 100 scientific studies that track the observed changes in the Earth"s climate system.   Peter Stott, who led the review, said "I hope people will look at the evidence and make up their minds informed by the scientific evidence."   Scientists matched computer models of different possible causes of climate change - both human and natural - to measured changes in factors such as air and sea temperature, Arctic sea ice cover and global rainfall patterns. The technique, called "optimal detection", showed clear evidence of human-induced global warming, according to Stott.   Optimal detection considers to what extent an observation can be explained by natural variability, such as changing output from the sun, volcanic eruptions or El Nino, and how much can be explained by the well-established increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.   According to Nasa, the last decade was the warmest on record and 2009 the second warmest year. Temperatures have risen by 0.2C per decade, over the past 30 years and average global temperatures have increased by 0.8C since 1880.   The evidence that the climate system is changing goes beyond measured air temperatures, with much of the newest evidence coming from the oceans. "Over 80% of the heat that"s trapped in the climate system as a result of the greenhouse gases is exported into the ocean and we can see that happening" said Stott. "Another feature is that salinity is changing - as the atmosphere is warming up, there is more evaporation from the surface of the ocean [so making it more salty], which is most noticeable in the sub-tropical Atlantic."   This also links into changes in the global water cycle and rainfall patterns. As the atmosphere warms, it has been getting more humid, exactly as climate modellers had predicted. "This clear fingerprint has been seen in two independent datasets. One developed in the Met Office Hadley Centre, corroborated with data from satellites."   Arctic sea ice is also retreating - the summer minimum of sea ice is declining at a rate of 600,000 km˛ per decade, an area approximately the size of Madagascar. Again, decreasing sea ice is predicted by climate models.   Rainfall is also on the rise in the higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere, while in the tropics and sub-tropics, there are decreases. "The already-wet regions are getting wetter and the dry regions are getting drier," said Stott.   "There hasn"t been an increase in solar output for the last 50 years and solar output would not have caused cooling of the higher atmosphere and the warming of the lower atmosphere that we have seen," said Stott.   The review was published as scientists also report a rise in methane emissions from a section of the Arctic Ocean sea floor. That study, published in the journal Science, shows that the permafrost under the East Siberian Arctic shelf, once considered an safe store of methane, is leaking large amounts of the gas into the atmosphere. Release of even a fraction of the methane stored in the shelf could trigger abrupt climate warming as this is a greenhouse gase around 30 times more potent than CO2.   "The amount of methane currently coming out of the East Siberian Arctic shelf is comparable to the amount coming out of the entire world"s oceans. Sub-sea permafrost is losing its ability to be an impermeable cap," said Natalia Shakhova, a researcher at the University of Alaska Fairbanks"s International Arctic Research Centre. "The release to the atmosphere of only one percent of the methane assumed to be stored in shallow deposits might alter the current atmospheric burden of methane up to three to four times. The climatic consequences of this are unknown."
	People need nature to thrive by Conservation International   Since its inception in 1987, Conservation International has worked to benefit humanity by conserving the Earth’s biodiversity – the species and ecosystems that are our natural heritage. We believe that maintaining healthy ecosystems and the services they provide is the foundation for healthy human societies that thrive on sustainable economic development.   CI works in biodiversity hotspots, high-biodiversity wilderness areas and seascapes in more than 40 countries. These regions of the planet’s richest biodiversity also are home to indigenous and local communities that directly depend on healthy ecosystems for their clean water, food, fuel, clothing, medicine and shelter. When soaring human consumption and impact depletes those resources, everything and everyone suffer. By partnering with these local inhabitants and other stakeholders – from international organizations and national governments to grassroots groups – CI strives to achieve the multiple benefits of empowering indigenous and local communities to conserve essential resources and strengthening the fundamental role of biodiversity conservation in providing sustainable livelihoods.   In 2003, CI created the Indigenous and Traditional Peoples Program (ITPP) to continue to strengthen our commitments to indigenous and traditional peoples and support the vital role of their territories in conservation landscapes. We work directly with local leaders, communities, conservationists, indigenous organizations and other critical players to build a common agenda for the conservation of biological and cultural diversity at local, national and international scales. The program’s activities strengthen the collaboration of these groups and expand the abilities of communities to effectively manage their lands and resources while also maintaining their livelihoods and their natural and cultural patrimony.   We support efforts by indigenous groups to gain legal designation and management authority over ancestral lands and their resources. We help communities enhance their capacity to manage those areas to conserve the biodiversity and ecological processes on which they depend. We join international partners in the Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund and other mechanisms that support projects promoting biodiversity conservation and human well-being. We partner with communities to support the sustainable and traditional uses of medicinal plants and animals, and provide needed economic resources that help promote conservation efforts on the ground. All of our work emanates from our guiding principles of helping people through conservation. Visit the related web page
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